Funding the Afghan National Security Forces
By CJ RADIN
September 16, 2011 11:14 PM
It was recently reported that the US is looking for ways to trim the cost of funding the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). "The new frugality is a necessity, a message reiterated by congressional delegations that visited Afghanistan and reminded U.S. soldiers and diplomats about economic problems back home," according to The Washington Post.
The ANSF currently consist 300,000 troops. The plan is to build the force up to 352,000 troops by October 2012, with the US funding the vast majority of the cost. While the ANSF is being developed, the cost is about $12 billion per year, but once the force is built,
the cost to sustain the force will drop to about $6 billion per year. The US is now seeking ways to reduce its contribution once the ANSF reaches its full size in October 2012 to $2-3 billion per year. Is this effort simply "trimming the frills," or is it penny-wise and pound-foolish? An analysis reveals that it is some of both.
The reality of ANSF funding
Afghanistan is a poor country. Afghanistan's GDP is roughly $15 billion per year.
The total government income is $3 billion per year, and only a portion of that would be available to fund the ANSF. Realistically, the Afghan government's contribution cannot exceed $500 million per year, an amount that would sustain a force of only about 30,000 troops. In other words, Afghanistan does not have nearly the funds it needs to build or sustain a force of any substantial size on its own, now or at any time in the foreseeable future.
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