An Occurrence in Pakistan -- The Battle That Wasn't

[bemildred]

Mr. Lind is a most perceptive military writer.

About two weeks ago, the world's attention suddenly
turned to a dramatic battle in Pakistan. The Pakistani Army,
we were told, had trapped a large force of al Qaeda, including
a "high-value target," possibly Ayman Zawahiri. The
Pakistanis brought in artillery and air power. The fate of the
al Qaeda fighters was sealed.

Then the whole thing evaporated into
thin air. First, Zawahiri wasn't there. Then no other "high-value
target" was there either. The Pakistani Army invited local
tribal elders to mediate, declaring a cease-fire while they did
so - not the sort of thing you do when you are winning. Pakistani
Army units elsewhere in the tribal territories came under attack.
Finally the whole business just dropped out of sight, ending
not with a bang but a whimper.

What really happened? At this point,
if anyone knows they are not telling. But that is not the important
question. The important question is, what didn't happen?

What did not happen is that a force of
irregulars - maybe al Qaeda, maybe Taliban, certainly local tribal
fighters - was trapped by a state military and beaten. That is
a very significant non-event. Normally, non-state irregulars
cannot stand against state armed forces. Once they are located
and pinned down, the state armed forces can use their vastly
superior firepower to win an easy and guaranteed victory. They
just keep up the bombardment until those left alive have little
if any fight left in them (remember, these irregulars are not
exactly the German Army at the Somme).

CounterPunch

[rogerashton]

1. What about Mr. Abdullah?

It's true! There was an important AQ figure captured in that action! His name is Abdullah and we are assured he is very important, although the rest of his name is not revealed.

I will reveal it.

He is Abdullah Nonymous.

They have done it! They have caught the famous A. Nonymous!

[Supormom]

2. Very Good!

I was wondering when they would finally capture Abdullah!

[varun]

3. out of 100 killed in this operation

40 something were Pakistani soldiers...and Musharraf called this operation a "success"!

This is extremely unusual...considering Pakistani army has modern equipment (including F-16s and air power).

Also, none of the captured have been shown...leading to speculation that these "captured" are Pakistanis, not Al-Qaeda.

[teryang]

4. How much money did Musharef get?

I'll bet his Swiss accounts are bulging after all the visits he gets from American regime bigwigs.

The hundreds of millions in military equipment and aid buys the Army's loyalty and silence with respect to 911 and American aided nuclear proliferation. The embargo is off now that this terrorist supporting dictator has played ball so efficiently. This will mean hundreds of millions more in business for American defense contractors all paid for by American taxpayers.

[bemildred]

5. Well, the stories proliferate.

I notice we are apparently sending another 2000 marines
up there to help out, and we are short of staff these days.

Mr. Lind seems to think this will not serve Mushhead well,
and the Army seems to have, intentionally or not, given a
rather unconvincing performance.

[teryang]

6. I'm sure their hearts weren't in it

It was a campaign purchased by Washington at a critical time to divert attention from the massive foreign policy failures to date. Like Mubarrak, his increasing dependency on Washington constrains his freedom of action and natural impulses.

Musharef is no fool, having covered for terrorist acts in India and the US and gone to the edge of the abyss of nuclear war with India and still lives to tell about it. He never plays the full hand but always leaves them asking for more.

[bemildred]

7. I concur.

Mubarak does seem irritable lately, his situation has been
made considerably more difficult. The King of Jordan also
seems to be unhappy with recent happenings.

It is interesting to consider what Mushhead has up his sleeve?
One may be sure there is something.

I agree the entire "campaign" was a dog-and-pony show put
on for the US, but there were some hints that some of the
proceedings got out of hand, and obviously the players cannot
be allowed in on the secret.

I would expect that both are considering how they might hope to
deal with the consequences of the coming collapse in Iraq. I am
on tenterhooks wondering if the coalition will make it through to
the turnover of "sovereignty" before the illusion of control is
dissipated completely.

[teryang]

8. It is a mystery as to what actually transpires

...behind the scenes in Pakistan. I judge Mush based only on limited observations in the press. I always assume that he is hiding a great deal and holding back the trump hand. I love the reasonable demeanor and almost middle class facade he assumes for his risky machinations. Like other Pakistani dictators he has to know he is a temporary phenom. It seems unlikely that he would be removed by democratic forces. More likely another like himself to bring order by sacrificing Mush to placate militants or accusing him of having capitulated to militants (with middle class support). This would involve more or less support for American schemes depending on the slant. With the embargo undone the pro-American slant will be in the ascendant.

The less success "America" has in Iraq and Afghanistan, the stronger his hand becomes. I don't think he really desires American success in any way, he is just manipulating us as we him. The two countries have little in common except their relative weakness in central Asia.

[varun]

9. The three A's that run Pakistan...

Allah, Army and America

[bemildred]

10. Well, I'm assuming that a fundamentalist or nationalist

takeover in Iraq and Afghanistan, coupled with possible political
reorganization, warlordism, and the expulsion of US arms is a bad
thing for Mush. You are right that that is rank speculation, and
might well be wrong. And certainly if the neocons were to succeed
in their schemes he would become disposable, whereas in the present
case we have been forced to strenghten his hand.

One must assume that his fundamental motive, as with all placed
as he is, is to remain in power, but how to interpret that in terms
of current political realities in Pakistan is a mystery. The only
thing I feel confident about it that one of the more baroque double
games has been in play there for quite a long time now.