Pakistan Emerges As Threat To Regional Stability

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PAKISTAN EMERGES AS THREAT TO REGIONAL STABILITY
Stephen Blank: 6/18/04

A EurasiaNet commentary

Recent religious rioting and violence in Pakistan has heightened concern about the ability of President Pervez Musharraf’s government to maintain stability in the volatile nation. The domestic disarray has potential repercussions for not only the US-led war on terrorism, but also the long-term stability of Afghanistan and all Central Asia.

An unstable Pakistan cannot move forward toward peace with India. Instability also raises concerns about control over the country’s nuclear capacity, as well as Islamabad’s ability to contain Islamic radicalism in its tribal areas along the Afghan border. That, in turn, could embolden al Qaeda and Taliban elements hiding out in Pakistan, thus making the task of reconstructing Afghanistan immeasurably more difficult.

The epicenter of this unrest lies in the tribal region of Waziristan, along the border with Afghanistan. It is an area that operates largely beyond central government control. Recent efforts by the Pakistani military to establish its authority there have had decidedly mixed results. A military offensive in March, designed to root out al Qaeda and other Islamic radical elements, was generally viewed as a failure. .

Another security sweep that ended June 14 was more successful, military officials claimed. Authorities in Islamabad said the operation -- during which 72 people were killed, including 17 government security troops -- netted several high-value Islamic radical prisoners. Officials went so far as to claim that the offensive had "broken the back" of an al Qaeda attempt to establish itself in Pakistan.

Whether that is true or not remains to be seen. What is known is that the government is continuing to struggle to secure the cooperation of local tribal leaders in the ongoing effort to contain Islamic militant activities in the area....>>

http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav061804.shtml