Democracy is a Tough Sell for Iraq's Neighbors

[papau]

http://service.spiegel.de/cache/international/spiegel/0,1518,340837,00.html

IRAQ AFTER THE ELECTION

Democracy is a Tough Sell for Iraq's Neighbors

United States President George W. Bush sees a new age of democracy dawning in Iraq now that the elections are over. But the success of his project depends on one key factor: increased security. Attitudes toward popular elections are mixed in neighboring countries, and only a few are likely to follow Baghdad's example.

DPA

But even the objective of a US withdrawal, which the new Iraqi government will certainly demand, regardless of the outcome of the election, is still a long way off. American military officials concur that no more than a few thousand members of the Iraqi security forces are reliable. Without US troops and the support of combat aircraft, they would have been unable to win a single battle against the insurgents to date.

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The main argument against democratizing across the board is as logical as it is paralyzing. "The Iraqi model will not work in any Arab state," says Ghassan Tuweini, a political scientist and publisher of Al-Nahar, a Beirut daily newspaper. In Tuweini's view, most Arab societies face the threat of collapse as a result of ethnic and religious conflicts. "Just as in Iraq, everyone will vote for his own people, his tribe or his religious faith. This destroys the state and leads to violence and civil war."

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The television images of Iraqi voters celebrating and dancing in the streets have made an impression in Egypt, Jordan, Syria and the Gulf states, but many in these regions feel that the price of freedom is too high. According to a survey of 3,500 citizens in six countries in the region conducted by US opinion research company Zogby International, a majority of Arabs believe that the Iraqis were better off under Saddam than under the American occupation.

The success of the elections depends on whether they produce stability -- in Baghdad, in the Sunni Triangle and beyond Iraq's borders. At least three of Iraq's neighbors hold a deeply skeptical view of the future. For months, attacks by Islamic extremists have been on the rise in Kuwait, the strongest supporter, among Arab states, of the US operation in Iraq. Six people were killed in Kuwait in a gun battle earlier this week. Although the small Gulf emirate no longer has Saddam to worry about, it is increasingly feeling the effects of bordering on a magnet for terrorism such as Iraq.

AP
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan (wearing sunglasses): Iraq's Kurds are trying to change the majority relationships in Kirkuk to their benefit and to the detriment of the region's Turkmen and Arab populations.
Turkey has been the most vocal in commenting on developments in Iraq, and the statements coming out of Ankara have been most directly targeted at the Iraqi elections. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said that Iraq's Kurds are trying to change the majority relationships in the oil-rich and multiethnic province of Kirkuk -- to their own benefit and to the detriment of the region's Turkmen and Arab populations. In fact, the Kurdish election coalition is expected to garner 70 percent of the vote, which would give the Kurds an absolute majority in Kirkuk. Erdogan, who fears this outcome could lead to what he believes would be a highly dangerous development -- the establishment of a separate state by Iraq's 13 million Kurds -- has criticized the Americans, saying: "Some simply look the other way while a mass migration takes place there."

Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gül has written to UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, claiming that the elections in Kirkuk are "a violation of international law." Gül assured a Turkish newspaper that Ankara has no territorial aspirations in northern Iraq, but also said that "sometimes the situation forces us to do certain things, even if they are not what we would actually like to do." It's been a long time since Turkey has so openly threatened a neighbor with war. The Turkish military supposedly drew up plans months ago to invade northern Iraq with 20,000 troops. But now the Turks have an elected government in Baghdad to contend with, and the interim Iraqi constitution includes a provision allowing for the return of the Kurds, who were driven out by Saddam. For years, the Americans were citing persecution of the Kurds as justification for military intervention in Iraq, and denouncing them now as trouble-makers in a federal Iraq would be unacceptable to the Kurds. The Turks cannot expect any support for their cause from Washington because it would jeopardize the Americans' credibility as champions of democracy.

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