The gun-grabbers mantra is "the evil gun did it" so how do they

[jody]

interpret the contradictory suicide rates and homicide rates between races when all races have the same access to guns? White suicides were 2.17 times black suicides but black homicides were 7.61 times white homicides.

"Injury Mortality Reports, 2000

2000, United States Suicide Firearm Rates per 100,000
All Races, Both Sexes, Ages 0 to 85+
White 6.70
Black 3.09
Am Indian/AK Native 5.46
Asian/Pac Islander 1.67
Total 6.02


2000, United States Homicide Firearm Rates per 100,000
All Races, Both Sexes, Ages 0 to 85+
White 2.12
Black 16.14
Am Indian/AK Native 3.49
Asian/Pac Islander 1.86
Total 3.9


Table 3.139
NOTE: In 2001 the following murders and nonnegligent manslaughters were committed
3,644 white victims by 3,059 (84%) white murderers and 475 (13%) black murderers
3,087 black victims by 180 (6%) white murderers and 2,802 (91%) black murderers

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

1. What are you trying to say, Jody?

Care to enlighten the assembled with an explanation of the point you might be trying to make?

Reason I ask that is that in trying to extrapolate your point, I come up with resultants that I find just that little bit disturbing. Well, more than a little. Being the fair-minded person that I try to be, I would rather I read a bit more from you before I make up my mind, as regards where you are going with this.

[jody]

2. Not really trying to say anything. Many anti-RKBA proponents assert

that the gun is the cause or primary cause of suicides and homicides.

I was surprised to find such disparate suicide and homicide rates between racial groups. My initial reaction was that access to guns could not explain the differences since access is the same among all groups. The question then becomes, if not the gun, then what?

[iverglas]

3. doncha just wish

... not only that she'd enlighten us all about what her point is from time to time, but that she'd have the occasional point?


The gun-grabbers mantra is "the evil gun did it"

Many anti-RKBA proponents assert that the gun is the cause or primary cause of suicides and homicides.


I'd ask her to name two such people, and I'd happily call 'em idiots. But she ain't listening. Anybody want to notify her of my offer?

Ah, misrepresentation, demonization, trivialization ... and the ignore button. The best weapons in the arsenal of all those looking to avoid having to persuade through civil, democratic discourse, and instead to get their own way by other means.

(Who? Where? I'm not saying until jody does!)

.

[Spoonman]

29. Now honor that statement.

And don't try some over blown analysis of the post, face value and make true on your promise.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=118&topic_id=10362&mesg_id=10847&page=

[iverglas]

30. wot??

Jody says (I'm emphasizing to help us follow the thought, now):

"The gun-grabbers mantra is 'the evil gun did it'
Many anti-RKBA proponents assert that the gun is the cause or primary cause of suicides and homicides."

I say:

I'd ask her to name two such people, and I'd happily call 'em idiots.

Now you say -- and nota bene that I did not ask you, eh? The offer was made to jody, not to the world at large (and it was also conditional, but we won't worry about that):

And don't try some over blown analysis of the post, face value and make true on your promise.

and direct me to a post of CO's, in which he says:

The Gun Facilitated The Tragedy
No matter how much you pro-gunners try, yo cannot separate the gun from the act of using that gun. They're completely intertwined.

... and ... are you thinking you're seeing something there that isn't there? Or maybe you're just pretending to see something that isn't there?

Let's take out the intervening bumph, and we get:

jody:
"Many anti-RKBA proponents assert that the gun is the cause or primary cause of suicides and homicides."

CO Liberal:
"you cannot separate the gun from the act of using that gun. They're completely intertwined."

Want me to do that again?

You're saying that you see something in CO's that is not only a fifteenth cousin seven times removed of jody's (which it isn't even), but in fact its monozygotic twin??

I think Spentastic may have been right. There's a lot of folks here could do with a little Windex on the old specs.

.

[Spoonman]

32. Thank you

for proving my point.

And don't try some over blown analysis of the post, face value and make true on your promise

you will be the first and only to make my ignore list - Don't make promises you will not keep.

[iverglas]

33. it's howdy doody time

'Twas brillig, and the slithy toves
Did gyre and gimble in the wabe.
All mimsy were the borogoves,
And the mame raths outgrabe.
'Beware the Jabberwock, my son,
The jaws that bite, the claws that catch.
Beware the jubjub bird, and shun
The frumious bandersnatch.'
He took his vorpal sword in hand;
Long time the manxome foe he sought.
Then rested he by the tum-tum tree,
And stood awhile in thought.
And as in uffish thought he stood,
The Jabberwock, with eyes of flame,
Came whiffling through the tulgey wood,
And burbled as it came!
One! two! and through and through
The vorpal blade went snickersnack!
He left it dead, and with its head
He went galumphing back.
'And hast thou slain the Jabberwock?
Come to my arms, my beamish boy!
O frabjious day! Calooh! Calay!'
He chortled in his joy.
'Twas brillig, and the slithy toves
Did gyre and gimble in the wabe.
All mimsy were the borogoves,
And the mome raths outgrabe.

Between you speaking and saying nothing -- you really not going to tell me what you are purporting to have said? are you REALLY SAYING that what CO said was what jody accused her adversaries of saying? are you really saying that?? -- and that other one squawking and saying the same thing over and over ... well, we have Jabberwocky and http://www.jabberwacky.com/JTReply?B137883


.

[iverglas]

4. oh, btw

I had a look at some stats like this a couple of years ago -- when they were offered by someone definitely looking to make a particular point.

One thing I noticed in jody's figures:

13% of white murder victims were killed by blacks.
6% of black murder victims were killed by whites.

Oh no, Paco! Those black folk sure do kill a lot of white folk, eh?

Well funny; here's what *I* notice about the stats.

180 black people were killed by white people.
475 white people were killed by black people.

About 2.6 times as many white people killed by black people as vice versa.

Hmm. Aren't there a few more than 2.6 times as many white people than black people in the US?

The white people seem to have wiped out a larger percentage of the black population of the US than the black people did of the white population.

Statistics; you can't live without 'em, you can do lots of fun things with 'em.

(And I had to edit because I did a simple division wrong. Gimme a dunce cap and send me to the corner.)

.

[jody]

5. Suicide rates male US 19.8, Canada 21.5; female US 4.4, Canada 5.4

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph-T/hea_sui_rat_fem

ON EDIT ADD
Japan suicide rates: male rate is 25 and female rate is 12

[unblock]

6. how to lie with statistics

nice debating strategy, jody, claim your nonexistent opponent has an argument you can easily defeat, then defeat it. congratulations, you beat yourself!

actually, on further review, it appears that the strawman argument you beat is somewhat non-existent as well. just what gun control position are you railing against?

your statistics suggest (i'm not seeing any confidence intervals here) that race may be a factor in firearm deaths. so?

so blackness puts you at greater risk of a firearm death. what does this prove?

it might help us identify a locus of the problem of lethal violence, but it sheds little light on gun control.

had firearms been less accessible or more socially unacceptable, would those deaths have simply become non-firearm deaths? or mere non-lethal violent injuries?

would gun control lead to more violence? less violence?
would gun control make whatever violence that did happen less lethal? or more lethal?

interesting questions, having nothing to do with your statistics.

blacks die from guns at a greater rate than white die from guns, and i think you're trying to say that guns had nothing to do with this?

[jody]

7. No strategy, just raw numbers and a question. Is the gun the cause?

After meandering, you close by saying "blacks die from guns at a greater rate than white die from guns, and i think you're trying to say that guns had nothing to do with this?"

Don't guess at what I say because I've said nothing.

Are you saying that guns are the cause of homicides? If so, then why are the rates different among groups even though all groups have the same access to guns?

[unblock]

8. are you trying to say

that you've met people who think that guns are the SOLE cause of homicides? i haven't.

in any event, statistics on the breakdown of firearm deaths shed little light on this, especially if, as you assert, that the races have equal access to guns.

[jody]

10. A number of regular DU regulars imply in their posts that guns are

a major causal factor in homicides. If you read what I wrote, you know that I said "Many anti-RKBA proponents assert that the gun is the cause or primary cause of suicides and homicides."

Please do a google search on "gun control" and read the literature of the gun-control crowd. You will find many there who blame firearms for every death that someone causes by using a firearm.

We have many DU regulars that imply in their posts that guns are the primary cause of homicides and suicides. They then reason that if guns are banned, the number of deaths in which guns were used will decrease by a large proportion. That's my understanding of their rationale for wanting to ban handguns and other firearms.

[unblock]

15. i'm sure there are nuts on all sides of most issues

but the vast majority of gun control advocates believe simply that crime will decrease, violence will decrease, and/or violent crimes will become less lethal.

all these points are debatable, but like i said, no one thinks that banning guns means no more suicides or homicides.


i suppose i can imagine a gun control extremist might take the view you're describing, that the gun is "the cause" or "primary cause" of suicides and homicides, but far more common is the pro-gun extremist who insists that guns are 100% utterly irrelevant to any suicide and homicide.

reality, of course, lies somewhere in between. some suicides will make attempts with whatever they have access to. some will success regardless. others would only make the attempt if they think it would be over instantaneously. still others would try something less likely to succeed if a gun wasn't around.

and sure, there are also stories of violent incidents being diffused swiftly and harmlessly simply by brandishing a pocket cannon and allowing the less armed party to step down and vamoose.

greater gun control, like any legislative change, would have both wins and losses.

[jody]

16. Perhaps we have similiar views on the effects of gun-control. My interest

in this thread was to see if anyone had an idea about the difference between suicide and homicide rates and why they reversed between two major groups of citizens.

[Name removed]

21. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Awakened Dreamer]

9. A flaw

I would like to see actual statistics that prove all races have equal access to guns. This claim seems very fishy to me.

[jody]

11. Good point and I'll try to find a stat. In the meantime, consider this.

A 2001 FBI report Firearm Use by Offenders lists the following percent of inmates by race in state and federal prisons that possessed a firearm during current offense.
White 14.8% and 16.7%
Black 21.1% and 17.7%
Hispanic 17.6% and 8.1%
Other 19.3% and 17.9%

Those statistics may suggest equal access to firearms.

[unblock]

12. not really

it suggests that firearm crimes are easier to result in convictions or longer sentencing. this is a very useless statistic, unless you want to get into the whole prison system thing.

[jody]

13. I guess we disagree. eom

[Spentastic]

22. Most telling sentence by a poster ever

"Don't guess at what I say because I've said nothing."

I'd noticed that.

[iverglas]

23. Oh no, Paco!

Weren't you already on the ignore list?? You've surely dunnit now.







Squawk. Squawk.


.

[Lefty48197]

43. Yip yap - Chihuahua alert

yellow dog. yellow dog.
Just keep saying it. Maybe someone will believe it.

[MrBenchley]

24. LOL! (n/t)

[jody]

25. My statement in context was about conclusions and I did not

make a conclusion.

Perhaps you didn't understand the question.

[Lefty48197]

42. Now you're calling the entire NRA liars

since they claim that Canada has some sort of law that denies gun ownership to their residents.

[jody]

14. Point of clarification. The data I cited from "Table 3.139" is for

single offender and single victim incidents, a subset of all murders.

[Pert_UK]

17. Jody, you usually make more sense than this......

The "anti" RKBA people on here repeatedly state that guns are not the CAUSE of murders and suicides. In addition, I've never yet seen one anti RKBA poster claim that guns are "evil". I think that everyone recognises that guns are inanimate objects incapable of causing very much in isolation, and which certainly lack the necessary cognitive capacity to behave in a way that could be described as "evil".

You do yourself no favours by recycling this rubbish.

In addition, your use of statistics in the case is spectacularly atrocious. Even if one did hold the utterly bizarre belief that guns caused murders and suicides, that doesn't mean one couldn't reasonably argue that other differing factors within racial/societal groups influences each group's members to be more or less inclined towards violence.

[jody]

18. Pert, I'm not going to do a search to find hundreds of replies that

clearly state guns are the cause of murders and suicides. You've been participating on DU's J/PS Forum long enough to know what I say is correct.

As to the statistics, if the numbers are wrong, then please show me where I made an error. The rates are from a valid government source and I gave a link to the site. If those rates are accurate, then the differences between suicide and murder rates are substantial between groups and unexpectedly they reverse from suicide to homicide.

Given valid data, the question I posed as to the cause is legitimate.

Please show me where I'm wrong. :shrug:

[Pert_UK]

19. Oh now come on.....

You've asserted that many "anti RKBA" people claim that guns cause murders and suicides.....I honestly can't remember anyone making that unambiguous claim.

Certainly not Iverglas, Spentastic, me or even (to the best of my knowledge) Mr Benchley.

Causation is a very specific term. So what would I say?

- guns make it EASIER for violent people to cause MORE death and injury
- guns ENABLE some crimes that would otherwise be very difficult
- guns often WORSEN the conclusion of an incident
- guns FACILITATE quick, easy, irreversible carnage in a moment of impulsive action/rage

Notice that I'm not claiming causation. The thing is, in a moment of rage I might honestly feel like I want to kill the guy in the bar who just called my wife a slag. I might hit him with my fists or a chair.....this just MIGHT cause him serious injury or death. If I have a gun with me then the odds are that he's going to die, and others may be injured, depending on the path of the bullet and how many I fire off.

We've all had moments of rage and felt impotent in the face of some smug asshole. After a few beers, I know that I'd be tempted to pull out a gun and "level the playing field". Does a gun cause my feelings or action? Nope....but it enables them, and gives me an additional option that I wouldn't have without it.

But, after all these comments (without any actual facts or stats, I'll admit - I'm appealing to intuition here), we're still not much further.

Guns, as inanimate objects don't CAUSE a fat lot. This is a problem with language though. If their presence in society is always accompanied by an increase in violence and injury, then one has to concede that they contribute negatively to the overall safety of that society.

"The level of gun ownership world-wide is directly related to murder and suicide rates and specifically to the level of death by gunfire."

'International Correlation between gun ownership and rates of homicide and suicide.' Professor Martin Killias, May 1993.

NOTE - this doesn't imply causation, it's correlation, but that doesn't change the fact that more people die.

"Homicide rates tend to be related to firearm ownership levels. Everything else being equal, a reduction in the percentage of households owning firearms should occasion a drop in the homicide rate".

Evidence to the Cullen Inquiry 1996: Thomas Gabor, Professor of Criminology - University of Ottawa:

[MrBenchley]

27. There's a whole bunch of threads about murder/suicide

right on the front page this minute....if this really was any sort of "mantra" by anybody it would be easy to find it in one of those threads, wouldn't you think?

I'd bet you wouldn't need a hunting dog; even a chihuahua could sniff one out...if it really existed.

[jody]

36. See my reply #35 eom

[Awakened Dreamer]

20. Not so.

No one claims that guns are the cause of murders. To do so is utterly ridiculous. Guns DO, however, cause several deaths. I was hesitant to touch this by wording. But it seems that your to premise is that guns do not cause unavoidable deaths. If someone was going to kill someone they would have done it anyway.

Of course this is utterly flawed as well. If I was set on killing people I would, this is true. HOWEVER, I would be unable to cause the same level of carnage with a knife as I would with say... a 50 cal machine gun.

I've put a lot of words in your mouth, so please tell me if I'm mistaken. I've found the mesages quite unclear so I might be objecting to something that you didn't mean in the first place. If this is the case I apologize.

[DoNotRefill]

38. It's also a lot harder to cause the level of mayhem with guns...

" I would be unable to cause the same level of carnage with a knife as I would with say... a 50 cal machine gun."

than it is to cause more mayhem with an airplane, boxcutters, or a fertilizer bomb.

[jody]

26. Every reply to my thread ignored my question so I'll start a new one.

[jody]

28. Mods said no new thread, So let's try my question again here.

Does anyone have an explanation for the reversal in rank of suicide rates and homicide rates between racial groups assuming all groups have the same access to guns? With a null hypothesis, if group "A" had a higher suicide rate than group "B", then the homicide rate of group "A" would be greater than group "B", but we have the following reversals.

White suicide rates were 2.17 times black rates but black homicide rates were 7.61 times white homicide rates. A reversal in ranking.

White suicide rates were 1.23 times Am Indian/AK Native rates but Am Indian/AK Native homicide rates were 1.65 times white homicide rates. A reversal in ranking.

White suicide rates were 4.01 times Asian/Pac Islander rates and white homicide rates were 1.14 times Asian/Pac Islander homicide rates. No reversal in ranking.

Am Indian/AK Native suicide rates were 1.77 times black rates but black homicide rates were 4.62 times Am Indian/AK Native homicide rates. A reversal in ranking.

Black suicide rates were 1.85 times Asian/Pac Islander rates and black homicide rates were 8.68 times Asian/Pac Islander homicide rates. No reversal in ranking.

Am Indian/AK Native suicide rates were 3.27 times Asian/Pac Islander rates and Am Indian/AK Native homicide rates were 1.88 times Asian/Pac Islander homicide rates. No reversal in ranking.


Rates below were obtained from queries at "Injury Mortality Reports, 2000"

2000, United States Suicide Firearm Rates per 100,000
All Races, Both Sexes, Ages 0 to 85+
White 6.70
Black 3.09
Am Indian/AK Native 5.46
Asian/Pac Islander 1.67
Total 6.02


2000, United States Homicide Firearm Rates per 100,000
All Races, Both Sexes, Ages 0 to 85+
White 2.12
Black 16.14
Am Indian/AK Native 3.49
Asian/Pac Islander 1.86
Total 3.9

[iverglas]

31. here's the real question

What on earth is your point?

You can even just tell us what you *think* your point is, if you like.

Does it occur to you that your point is perhaps something so obvious to the normal person that your question appears to be a trick one?

(Is she asking us what I think she's asking us? -- No, she can't be, that would just be too easy. -- Well then what's she on about? -- I dunno, let's just sit here and hope she doesn't call on us. -- Maybe she'll just forget we're here and go back to pushing that ignore button; it would be mean to answer her old question too quick and puncture her balloon. -- Do you think she gets a little treat when she pushes that button? -- Ssh! somebody might think you're calling her a rat. -- Never! Did you know parrots can count to 9, and often ask questions that are appropriate to the social situation? -- Yeah ... but can they understand the answers?)

.

[hansberrym]

34. It seems that the data you present

would not support a claim that firarms ownership is by itself THE PRIMARY factor of both homicide and suicide rates.

Not much else can be known. Gun ownership might well be a strong co-factor; gun ownership plus some unidentified factor (or factors) might account for the rates very well. Note that you have defined the categories as "firearm suicide" and "firearm homicide" rates, so gun ownership must at least be a co-factor in these rates, but if it were the primary factor or the only factor, then there should be agreement in the rates.


For the record I am unaware of whether anyone has made the claim that firearms ownership is the "primary factor" in murder and suicide rates.

[jody]

35. Do a google search on "guns cause crime" and read the gun-grabber material

[MrBenchley]

40. Quick, who is surprised

that the first ten or so are RKBA nutcases and other conservative loonies screaming dishonestly that gun control groups say "guns cause crime"?

www.fff.org/freedom/fd0304f.asp

mobydicks.com/commons/Gunsandthehall/messages/17.html

www.townhall.com/columnists/walterwilliams/ww20030305.shtml

www.libertyoutlet.com/store/itemdetail.html?detailid=28

www.greasycreek.net/guns.html

[jody]

37. I am delighted that so many of you have asserted that neither you

nor others have ever said guns are the "cause or primary cause of suicides and homicides."

Your position means that when any researcher presents a model with suicides or homicides as the "dependent variable" and any measure of firearm ownership as a "statistically, significant independent variable", then the relationship is "casual" and not "causal".

Thank you for becoming a member of the pro-RKBA group.

[iverglas]

39. more crap talk

"Your position means that when any researcher presents a model with suicides or homicides as the "dependent variable" and any measure of firearm ownership as a "statistically, significant independent variable", then the relationship is "casual" and not "causal".

Such silliness.

There are causal factors that are not "the cause or primary cause" of things that they are **A** CAUSE of.

I'm curious. Jody wrote this:

"I am delighted that so many of you have asserted that neither you nor others have ever said guns are the "cause or primary cause of suicides and homicides."

I'm curious why that "the" before the first "cause" is not inside the quotation marks.

The reason I'm curious is that I'm confident that while no one here has said that firearms are "the cause or primary cause of suicides and homicides", I'm hoping that jody isn't pretending that no one here has said that firearms are "a cause" of suicide and homicide.

Oh yeah. I just said "suicide and homicide" -- i.e. the PHENOMENA of suicide and homicide.

Jody said "suicides and homicides". Maybe she means "some". Maybe she means "all". Maybe she had a reason for not specifying.

Why doesn't jody like to let people speak for themselves? Why does she think it's necessary for her to come along behind them and put words in their mouths?

I say:

Access to firearms is a cause of suicide and homicide.

Access to firearms is a cause of some suicides and homicides.

I have no idea who might never have said "guns are the 'cause or primary cause of suicides and homicides'," since that statement has never been in issue in anyone's mind except those trying to pretend that it *was* what someone had said.

So I don't really give a flying fuck what jody might claim that this means.

.

[Lefty48197]

41. are you calling 1a2b3c a liar?

Because he says that our gun laws are inherently racist, and that they work to deny gun ownership to African Americans.
Personally, I think it is the facist economic policies of President Chimpy that work to suppress to wages of working Americans (and effectively those of African Americans). Those lowered wages deny working Americans the right to purchase a gun.

[jody]

44. No, I posed an initial question and expanded in #28 using data from

a government source that I gave. The rates were calculated by the source program and presented as a report.

I asked if anyone had an explanation for the reversal in suicide and homicide rates between groups.

Apparently you don't understand my question.