... how many massacres of hapless bystanders
who were not involved in any crime have happened in Australia since the firearms ownership rules were tightened? How many drive-by shootings?
Here's the bit that I don't get.
When responding to data showing the sky-high figures for firearms deaths in the US, the RKBA fans invariably announce that
most of these victims were involved in criminal activity. There seem to be two points: we shouldn't really be worrying about them, and "law-abiding gun owners" shouldn't be "penalized" for the criminals' sins ... despite the fact that there are really quite a lot of
firearms deaths in the US that just don't involve criminals at all.
And yet when responding to data that show that in countries where firearms ownership is tightly regulated, firearms deaths among
non-criminals have decreased (or have not increased as might have been expected, all other things being equal) -- well, then they point to the firearms deaths of criminals to "prove" that firearms control is ineffectual.
Australia's new firearms legislation came on line in 1997.
There were 328 firearms-related deaths in Australia in 1998 (homicides, suicides, accidents ...).
http://www.aic.gov.au/media/20000827.htmlOn the positive side however, the number of firearm-related deaths in 1998 at 328 was 25% less - or 110 fewer - than in 1997 and a 37% decrease - or 197 fewer - than in 1996.
Suicides accounted for 71.6 per cent of firearms deaths in 1998, followed by homicides (17.4 per cent), and deaths from accidental discharge (6.4 per cent).
http://www.aic.gov.au/media/2003/20030403.htmlIn 2001-2002 there was a 25 per cent decrease in the use of firearms to commit homicide. This is one of the major findings from the National Homicide Monitoring Program (NHMP) annual report released today by the Australian Institute of Criminology.
... In 2001-2002, there were a total of 354 homicide incidents perpetrated by 375 alleged offenders, which resulted in the deaths of 381 victims.
Compared to 2000-2001, Australia recorded a 20 per cent increase in homicide victimisation. In 2001-2002, there were 381 victims of homicide compared to 317 victims in 2000-2001.
... Compared to last year, the proportion of family homicides (excluding intimates) has doubled (23% in 2001-2002 compared to 11% in 2000-2001). Two factors account for this change:
An increase in the death of children under five (mostly infant deaths); and
An increase in the incidence of triple homicides which mainly involved family members.
23% of 381 (2001-2002) is 88. 11% of 317 (2000-2001) is 35. There were 53 more family-member homicides in 2001-2002 than in 2000-2001. That is, there were 11 more non-family homicides in 2001-2002 than in 2000-2001. (As well, there were 14 more multiple-victim (2 or 3 victim) homicides than in the previous year, most of them family homicides -- i.e. there were not 64 more homicide incidents than in the previous year.)
Yup, people are still killing their spouses and kids, and not using firearms to do it. Just as they were before the ban.
Is 2001-2002 a blip? We can't say right now.
http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/tandi/ti187.pdfIn 1999-2000, a total of 300 homicide incidents occurred in Australia, perpetrated by 324 identified offenders and resulting in the death of 337 persons persons. In terms of rates, Australia recorded a homicide victimisation rate of 1.8 per 100,000 residents
337 in 1999-2000, 317 in 2000-2001, 381 in 2001-2002. A marked difference from the historic trend. An unfortunate fad for killing one's family members. And multiple homicides that skew figures (like the Downtown East Side murders in Vancouver, for Canada).
Figure 1 illustrates the rate of homicide from 1989-1990 to 1999-2000. As stated elsewhere (see Mouzos 2000a), the homicide victimisation rate in Australia has demonstrated remarkable stability over this 11-year period. There have, however, been a number of significant events that resulted in an increase in the rate for a given year (Figure 1). The most obvious are: the Port Arthur incident (1995-96); the Strathfield incident (1991-92); the Central Coast incident (1992-93); the Snowtown murders (1998-99); the three murder-suicide incidents in Western Australia (one in 1998-99 and two in 1999-2000); and, more recently, the Childers fire in Queensland which claimed 15 victims.
In 1995, there were 67 firearms homicides in Australia:
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/0/9c85bd1298c075eaca2568a900139342?OpenDocument
In 2001-2002, there were (14% of 381) 53.
http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/cfi/cfi054.pdfFirearms were used in 26 per cent of homicides in Australia in 1989-90, compared to 14 per cent in 2001-02. This represents a 25 per cent decrease, and is the lowest proportion of homicides committed with a firearm since the inception of the NHMP in 1990. The most common type of firearms used to commit homicide in 2001-02 were handguns (56 per cent) and in most cases the firearm used in the homicide was not registered or licensed to either the victim or the offender.
There has been a decrease not only in
the percentage of homicides committed using firearms, but also in
the number of homicides committed using firearms, as well as in the number of homicides and homicide rate, as a trend. That "substitution" effect just doesn't seem to be quite what it's purported to be.
Yup, those criminals still have their guns, and still kill people with them.
But it does seem that fewer non-criminals are being killed by guns since the tighter firearms controls came on line.
Coincidence, I assume.
.