How bad will it be when the AW ban sunsets?

[leanings]

We'll see an influx of foreign made semi-automatics and "high" capacity magazines. Keeping the AW ban is the first priority mentioned by control advocates, so I'd imagine they must view it as being effective in producing some measure of safety for the populace. How will it's removal change the country? Will there be a noticable rise in homicide? More mass shootings? How long will the changes, if any, take to appear? What are your predictions based on your feelings about the issue and the available data?

[Wild Bill]

1. foreign made semi-autos will be covered still by the 89 import ban

Foreign made semi-autos will be covered still by the 89 import ban. You may see the return of standard capacity mags fairly quick. All the manfacuters have to do is remove the for LEO or military only stamps from the molds.

[DavidMS]

2. Other than lost sleep in certan parts of the population...

worried about the other part's new toys.

One can still get an semi-automatic AK-47 clone cheap, after the ban it will just have a flash hider and possibly a folding stock. So not much will change (I won't go into state law, but it won't make a diffrence in several states). Magazine prices should come down but, again with a few exceptions prices will not plunge dramaticaly (pipeline issues).

As for crime rate changes I doubt that much will change, firearms avialiability does not dramaticaly change murder rates. However if the average coked up twit-with-gun uses an ak-47 clone as opposed to a shotgun there will be far more survirors (at least from what I have read). Very simply put a shotgun is the absolutely last thing one wants to be shot with.

What will change is that the troglogites (rethugs who grew opposible thumbs to handle their favorate toys) will not be as likely to go to the polls and will be less energized for the '04 election. That will have a far larger impact.

[slackmaster]

3. Expiration of the ban will make ZERO difference in crime levels

Throughout the 10-year duration of the ban there have been numerous (and increasing numbers of) models of pistols, rifles, and shotguns that are functionally identical to the banned ones. All most manufacturers and importers had to do to comply with the ban was remove certain cosmetic features like bayonet lugs and folding stocks.

The expiration may put downward pressure on the prices of some used "pre-ban" firearms; other than that it won't mean jack shit to anyone. Weapons affected by the ban have never been widely used in crimes in the past. There is no reason to believe they will be in the future.

[DoNotRefill]

4. no change whatsoever.

considering that you can buy a post-ban "neutered" AK clone now for $350, and all the high-cap mags you want for it @$8 each. Yup, for $430 before tax, you can have an AK with 10 30 round magazines. Compare this to before the ban, when a pre-ban "neutered" AK clone went for $350, and 30 round magazines were $3 each, so your total cost for the same package was $380, and both packages had EXACTLY the same "firepower". The only difference: One gun had a bayonet lug, and the other one didn't.


When viewed in those terms, it's a pretty silly concept, isn't it?

[1a2b3c]

5. foreign made semi-automatics

They would still have to have the 10 US made parts wouldnt they? Wasnt that from *'s daddys ban?

[Withergyld]

9. Yes any

"foreign" rifle prohibited from import will still need to be built in compliance with 922(r)(ten or less foreign parts)

[CO Liberal]

6. If Crime DOES Go Up.......

.... would the pro-gunners be willing to admit they were wrong and help reinstitute the ban????

[DoNotRefill]

8. CO....

Crime IS going to continue to increase, regardless of if the ban sunsets or not. It's a factor of the economy, not one of what guns are available.

[leanings]

11. If crime were to go up.

That is, in this instance, if we were to see a spike in the number of crimes committed with rifles that were unavailable before the ban, or if we were to see shootings being perpetrated that were made more deadly because of the number of rounds being expended due to post-post-ban hi-cap mags, or if we were to see a sudden increase in the number of bayonet homicides, then yes, I would favor the reintroduction of the ban.

Now, your turn; if there is no perceptible change in the stats, would you admit that the ban was useless and did not deserve your support?

[slackmaster]

14. If the increase can be logically connected to expiration of the ban

Then yes, I would admit that I have been wrong all these years. My standards for making such a determination would of course be rigorous: Proof would require statistically significant evidence of a surplus of shootings committed with weapons manufactured after the ban expires; weapons that could not have been legally manufactured or sold during the 10-year ban.

CO, I encourage you to archive this post and hit me in the face with it should your dire "what if" come to pass.

[Township75]

7. There will be HUGE changes...

for starters the prices will drop and I will actually be able to afford one...kinda as a graduation gift as I should be graduating just a few months before then.

Secondly, the AWB is about all that remains from the near bankrupt and defunct anti gun groups - you know, the ones that claim to represent the vast majority of Americans, yet the Americans do not join their organizations or donate money to their causes...so they go bankrupt. When it sunsets, it will be as if they never existed.

[jhfenton]

10. The AWB is merely an insult to law-abiding gun-owners...

and its lapse won't change anything fundamental. I'll be able to buy new $15 15-round Glock .40 mags instead of paying $15 for 10-round mags or $80 for used 15-round mags. I'll be able to have a flash supressor or bayonet lug on my semi-automatic rifles.

To criminals, its lapse will mean as little as its passage: nothing.

[Fescue4u]

12. I doubt that the availablity of bayonut lugs or flash hiders

will increase crime much.

I suppose that some murderers who obey firearm laws will be a little quicker on there feet since, they won't have to carry as many magazines.

But then again, I've never heard of a murderer who obeys firearm laws.

[Superfly]

13. Bad?!?

Shit, I can't wait. Prices for all firearms made during the ban are going to drop like a stone!

Excellent!

[slackmaster]

15. I have a nice USGI A2 upper receiver in storage

All ready to pin onto my post-ban AR-15 lower.

[1a2b3c]

30. Arent you breaking a law?

Or do you have a pre-ban lower? I was thinking that it is illegal to own a pre-ban upper if you only own post ban lowers.

[slackmaster]

31. Not the letter of the law

Whether or not I own a pre-ban lower is irrelevant IMO. All of my AR parts except that upper are assembled into complete, working, fully legal rifles. The upper is stored in a different place, far enough that I believe I could beat any trumped up constructive possession charge.

[Fescue4u]

16. The absolute worst part

Will be the shrillness of the whining of gun control zealots when their great project of 1994 falls down around them.

This prohibition was about as successfull as Alcohol prohibition and is meeting the same deserved end.

[slackmaster]

17. The bleating, braying, and whining have already started

The Violence Policy Center says the ban hasn't made any difference in the kinds of weapons available:

"Immediately after the 1994 law was enacted, the gun industry moved quickly to make slight, cosmetic design changes in their "post-ban" guns to evade the law. Today, gunmakers openly boast of their ability to circumvent the assault weapons ban."

(See http://www.vpc.org/press/0305officer.htm )

While their buddies at the Brady Center say:

"If the NRA gets its way, police officers on your streets will soon be outgunned by fast, efficient, people-killing machines like AK-47s and Uzis that have been banned for a decade.:

(See http://www.bradycampaign.org )

What's wrong with this picture? The positions espoused by the Bradys and the VPC cannot both be true.

Why are the gun control zealots spending MILLIONS of dollars trying to get the ban renewed on one hand, while on the other hand saying it hasn't accomplished anything?

[Stilgar]

18. because VPC want a tougher ban

Brady group knows it will be hard just to keep the current ban, however VPC wants a stricter ban and to prove that they say the current ban does nothing.

So basically one anti-gun group is hurting the AWB renwal as much as the pro gunners.

So, pro-gunners say the ban did nothing but raise prices
the CDC says it cant find any proof it did anything good or bad
VPC says it didn't do anything

Brady says it did

No wonder Democrats are realizing more and more that this is a non-issue.

[Fescue4u]

20. ak-47's banned???

Funny. I bought a brand new one last year.

Real nice one, with a Bulgarian milled receiver.

[Withergyld]

21. You bought an AK 47 clone

yours is most likely semi auto only, not select fire like a TRUE AK 47.

[Fescue4u]

22. Well that is true.

It IS a semi-auto.

However by the same token, lifting of AWB will not change the laws regarding full-auto ak-47's in any sense whatsoever.

Either way, the statement about ak-47's being banned and once again available is patently false.

[Withergyld]

23. I agree with you

Most people don't understand what the original definition of an assualt rifle was before 1994.

[Stilgar]

25. Full or semi-auto the AK-47 is a mean looking gun

and it should be banned. Wait the semi-version is still available. So the AWB will still keep the full-auto... no thats covered by the full-auto ban.

I know, the AWB will keep the dangerous high capacity mags off the... wait, no pre-ban mags were grandfathered in and only made them more expensive but still available at gunstores and the internet.

Give me a second, I'll find a reason...

pistol grips and a barrel shroud make a gun more lethal... no that cant be it, how you grip the gun and a guard to keep you from touching a hot barrel doesn't change how the gun works.

Oh I know, it will keep you from buying a bayonet and thus preventing a stabbing. Finally, I found a part of the ban that acutally makes a gun more lethal. I have not heard of multiple bayonet stabbings but they must happen alot to want to ban them.

[Character Assassin]

19. Translation: we'll see a lot more stupid people.

They're relatively silent now, but they'll worm their way out when it happens.

[7th_Sephiroth]

24. all the sunset of the aw ban means to criminals is

that they dont have to swap-out springs, file down slide bolts or weld two magazines together

[Romulus]

26. what's a "slide bolt?"

And what "springs" get swapped out?

:eyes:

[slackmaster]

27. They don't have to do any of that now

They can just steal whatever springs, "slide bolts" (???), wham-ganks, or standard-capacity magazines they want.

Shit, they can just steal whole working guns and not have to futz with the mechanisms.

[Romulus]

29. and further (just curious)

that they dont have to swap-out springs, file down slide bolts

What exactly will be accomplished by doing all these things ?:shrug:

Are you trying to say that doing those things will convert semi-auto rifles to full auto?

You do know that that the cosmetic rifle ban has nothing to do with the regulation of full-auto rifles?

And that doing those things you list to convert a rifle to full-auto is a federal felony, and will remain so despite the end of the cosmetic rifle ban? And that merely having a full-auto conversion kit in proximity to a semi-auto rifle counts as a "conversion" for that federal felony? :shrug:

[jody]

28. No change. eom

[Hammie]

32. Disaster

Drive by bayonetings will return to the frightful level that we saw in the '80s.

Not to mention all the Assault Weapons on the street. Hell I can hardly get to my car now with all the Saturday Night Specials on the street. You get too many of them and the footing gets a little precarious. I can't imagine the dificultly in getting around when the streets are awash in Assault Weapons too. I'll certainly need to get a bigger leaf blower to keep them off the driveway.

I might have to move to Bogota, I hear that firearms are illegal there.