in regards to my own life than have this bill
"I could imagine a scenario where the NRA pro-gun forces might get some traction on the assault weapon portion as a constitutional matter, but I suspect that in the end they would not be successful as the rifle class of weapon will still be widely available."
this belief is flawed for a few reasons. First off the assault weapon ban being proposed essentially bans all clip fed semi-auto long guns- a huge class of rifles that are in in common possession. to put what you are saying in first amendment terms, its okay to ban Magazine publications because the majority of the printed press would still be allowed. It doesnt work that way. D.C. tried to do something similar to this by banning all semi-auto handguns stating that it constitutional because it allows ownership of revolvers. Well D.C. soon figured out that this wouldnt fly and they would probably lose in court so they repealed it.
"And if I may be cynical for a moment, the litmus test is hardly constitutionality. Congress has shown time and time again that it has no problem with passing laws that violate the constitution and then letting the courts sort it out. No - the litmus test will be whether Congress believes that this is what their voters want."
it is true that congress passes unconstitutional laws all the time- but laws interfering with the second amendment are in a different league. Laws like these are usually subject to extremely publicized and ferocious criticism- criticism that is really not seen in almost any other debate. Where many laws that sit on constitutionally flimsy grounds often don't get challenged (or if they do the cases are small or few and far between), cases that may run afoul to the second amendment will be attacked like wild dogs- wild dogs that are well payed, well organized, and never tire. These laws will be attacked by all angles.
secondly, ideology is all well and good but reality is whats left at the end of the day. The litmus test is not truly what the voters want but what scores political points for senators and congress people. Most of the time that correlates with what voters want but as a good statistician will tell you "correlation does not equal causation". This is easily seen within the confines of the gun debate. The truth is that the majority of americans support stricter gun restrictions than what is actually in place at the moment. But the key here is the word support. Support and want (in the political sense) are not interchangable. To want is to advocate, to support means you agree with the proposal- but that doesnt not necessarily mean you are going to openly advocate it. The fact is that only about 1-4% of americans think gun control should be a major issue. (
http://www.ncpa.org/pi/crime/pd082799e.html). So even if we assume that everyone in that 4% supports stricter gun control, there isnt much "want" for it. And since there isnt much "want" for it, it does not increase the political points for politicians. So to sum it up...the majority of americans really dont give a shit. Since that is the case, the remaining minority groups determine the outcome of political pressure for gun control. In that case, it is a well known fact that the open advocate gun rights minority is exponentially larger than the gun control minority (The NRA has a membership of over 4 million, while the Brady campaign- the largest single gun control organization- boasts less than 50,000) politicans in whole, stand more to lose than to gain from pushing gun control.
"The fact of the matter is that Congress and the President rode in on a wave of change as dictated by the Democratic platform. And that platform includes common sense controls on these weapons."
They rode on a wave of change in regards to the war in iraq, economy, and anti-bush sentiments...gun control played very little role in this. And lets not be naive, very few items on a presidents platform will ever be accomplished- and since that is the case an administration must pick and choose its battle, and gun control is not one of them
Also logistically speaking- there is very little chance that this bill will see floor time in the senate- harry reid is a senator from a very pro-gun state and at the end of the day he does not answer to the american people as a whole- but to the voters of the state of nevada. Tom daschle was in the position a time before and caved into the administrations push for gun control- it hurt him at the polls.
Lastly- i'd like to add that i believe you are mixing up a particular state house with congress. Bill filing times have never been shown to have a correlation with chances of being passed.