2009 gun sale reach an all time high, violent crime rate drops ...

[spin]

Violent Crime Declined As Gun Sales Climbed in 2009
Thursday, September 16, 2010


(CNSNews.com) - Violent crime continued to fall in 2009, even as gun sales reached an all-time high, according to statistics from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). This is “proof positive that gun prohibitionists have been consistently and undeniably wrong,” the Citizens Committee for the Right to Keep and Bear Arms said in a statement.

***snip***

While violent crime was going down in 2009, guns sales were experiencing a record year. According to data from the FBI’s National Instant Background Check System (NICS), 2009 was the best year on record for gun sales.

According to the NICS figures, 14 million guns were sold in 2009, the biggest year since the system began recording data in 1998. The NICS figures are considered the most accurate measurement of gun sales because federal law requires that a NICS check be done prior to every firearm sale in America.

In fact, there were nearly 2 million more guns sold in the United States in 2009 than in 2008, the next best year for gun sales, when 12.7 million NICS checks were recorded.

The NCIS data do not capture all gun sales, however, as only federally licensed primary dealers are required to conduct them. Firearms sales between private citizens can still be done freely, without having to let the federal government know about it. This normally occurs at one of the nation’s many public gun shows, meaning that the firearms sales figures provided by NICS are actually lower than the true figures.
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/75359

[rrneck]

1. Could we infer

that all those guns are being bought by law abiding citizens? Of course if crime is going down, why are they buying all those guns?

A Democratic president is no doubt a factor. But there may be another more telling factor. Given our economic, energy and environmental troubles people with modest means may be doing what they can in advance of what they perceive to be real hard times and all the social upheaval that entails.

A gun might be considered a poor man's hedge fund.

[SteveM]

2. The trend toward increased sales began 2 years before Obama's election...

back when most folks thought "Obama" was a island chain in the Caribbean.

[lawodevolution]

3. first post

Hi, this is my first post.

This shows that increasing rate of gun ownership does not mean that crime will go up. I'm going to post up a thread comparing rate of gun ownership by nation to murder rate later

[oneshooter]

5. Welcome to DU.

[spin]

8. Welcome to DU. (n/t)

[ZombieHorde]

12. Welcome to DU!

[safeinOhio]

4. That was 2009 this is 2010 going on

2011.

http://www.mysmartrend.com/news-briefs/technical-analysis/investors-surrender-their-shares-smith-wesson-shares-drop-104-swhc

Smith & Wesson (NASDAQ:SWHC) is one of today's worst performing low-priced stocks, down 10.4% to $3.55 on 1.6x average daily volume. Approximately 1.4 million shares have traded hands today vs. 30-day average volume of 850,000 shares.
High volume often signals a change in trends. Shares of Smith & Wesson are currently trading below their 50-day moving average (MA) of $3.89 and below their 200-day MA of $4.15.
SmarTrend scans for speculative low-price stocks under $5 for reversals in trends. A large price movement may signal continuation or reversal of a trend.
Smith & Wesson is in SmarTrend's Recreational & Sporting Goods industry and this industry is currently in a Downtrend. An industry trend that matches the stock's trend helps to add conviction to the stock's Downtrend and price prediction.
SmarTrend is bearish on shares of Smith & Wesson and our subscribers were alerted to sell on December 14, 2009 at $3.92. The stock has fallen 9.4% since the alert was issued.

Now, will the other trend start to rise? If you are going with that argument, what will you say if violent crime takes a leap in the next few years?

[X_Digger]

6. You posit a claim of causation where none exists

You can prove that "more gunz = more crime" is demonstrably wrong without suggesting that "more gunz = less crime".

As such, this period, from 1993 to at least 2009, stands on its own.

[friendly_iconoclast]

7. So arbitrageurs manipulated S&W stock. What does this have to do with the OP?

This is the second time you've brought their stock price up. That's rather obvously reaching for a diversion from bad (for gun

prohibitionists, that is) news.



Unless, of course, you're claiming that enraged Smith & Wesson stockholders are going to embark on some horrific crime spree....

[safeinOhio]

17. If you read it

"Smith & Wesson is in SmarTrend's Recreational & Sporting Goods industry and this industry is currently in a Downtrend. An industry trend that matches the stock's trend helps to add conviction to the stock's Downtrend and price prediction."

A downtrend in an industry points to a drop in sales across the board. What does it have to do with arbitageurs? So, are sales for other manufactures of sporting arms and ammo trending down also?

So, are you claiming that a downturn in gun sales will led to a crime spree.....

I love how people say what I'm really thinking and not what I'm really saying and able to categorize me. Almost becomes personal attacks again.

[X_Digger]

23. "Recreational & Sporting Goods industry"?

Did you forget that only 1 in 5 gun owners hunts?

If you want a closer look at the larger gun industry, check the NSSF-

http://www.nssf.org/PDF/2010EconomicImpact.pdf

[safeinOhio]

24. All the numbers are for 2009

It also promotes all the federal and state taxes on firearms and ammo, which I am for, just like this trade group. Thanks for the info.

[X_Digger]

25. Compare 2009 to 2010 NICS checks here..

http://www.fbi.gov/hq/cjisd/nics/Total%20NICS%20Background%20Checks.htm

The 2010 numbers are within 2k of 2009 for the same months.

2009, Jan - Aug : 9,076,205
2010, Jan - Aug : 9,078,219

[safeinOhio]

26. the note at bottom

NOTE: These statistics represent the number of firearm background checks initiated through the NICS. They do not, in any way, represent the number of firearms sold. Based on varying state laws and purchase scenarios, a one-to-one correlation cannot be made between a firearm background check and a firearm sale.


But, I do like the tax figures from the trade association you posted and how they are using those figures to promote their product. It is a very good point in these times of budget deficits. They don't appear to find any conflict with taxes on firearms, both state and federal, with the 2nd Amendment.

[X_Digger]

27. Correct, private transfers don't show up there except for the 4? 5? states that mandate it..

..but it certainly doesn't reflect a drop in retail sales.

S&W may be in SmartTrend's "Recreational & Sporting Goods" index, but that index doesn't only encompass gun sales, either. (All squirrels are mammals, but not all mammals are squirrels).

From the available information that is most closely related to gun sales (NICS checks and the trade association that includes guns), there's no problem with the industry. Gun sales from various manufacturers aren't monolithic- see Winchester and Marlin, compared to Glock or Springfield Armory.

Similarly, if Toyota's numbers were off, I wouldn't say that the car industry is in trouble, especially if the rest of the industry is up.

They don't appear to find any conflict with taxes on firearms, both state and federal, with the 2nd Amendment.

This schtick again? Seriously?

MINNEAPOLIS STAR v. MINNESOTA COMM'R OF REV., 460 U.S. 575 (1983)

"...differential taxation that selectively burdens the exercise of a fundamental right is impermissable."

Until Heller, no post 14th amendment court had held that the second amendment was an individual right. Until McDonald, the second hadn't been incorporated against the states and declared 'fundamental'.

No challenge has been made to the federal excise tax because nobody had standing to do so.

[spin]

9. I don't believe that the rate of legal gun ownership has much bearing ...

on the violent crime rate.

Many factors can influence the violent crime rate. One thing is apparent, more guns does not equal more crime.

[spin]

10. S&W stock might be dropping because other companies have

developed firearms that are more popular.

Ruger, for example, has produced two very popular firearms recently.


Ruger LCP


Ruger LCR

[Euromutt]

14. Smith & Wesson is pursuing that trend now, too

They've just brought out the "Bodyguard" models of handguns.

The Bodyguard 380:


and the Bodyguard 38:


Pretty clearly designed to compete with the Ruger LCP and LCR, and with the added advantage of coming with laser sights built in. Maybe that'll restore S&W's fortunes.

[rrneck]

28. Ever shot an LCR in .357?

I was wondering how bad it would be.

[spin]

29. The .357 Ruger LCR is heavier ...

Ruger LCR .357 for recoil sensitive shooters

Both the Ruger LCR and LCR 357 pack quite a punch. Sadly physics does allow weight to be decreased without felt recoil increasing.

Michael Bane makes the sensible recommendation that recoil sensitive shooters should buy the LCR 357 instead of the standard LCR because it is 26% heavier. Loading it with softer .38 Special rounds will be more comfortable than shooting the standard LCR with .38 Special ammo. Michael says ...

If you're at all recoil-sensitive, I strongly suggest you chose the 17.1 ounce .357 over the regular 13.5 ounce .38, then shoot .38s in the heavier LCR. I shot 158-gr Hornady .38+P self defense loads in the .357 and it was controllable and painless. Regular .38s would be downright pleasant to shoot,. I'd kill to have one of these in .22LR (take note, Ruger...pleeeeeeeease...).
http://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/2010/06/30/ruger-lcr-357-for-recoil-sensitive-shooters/

I've never fired a .357 LCR but I have often fired my S&W Model 642 snubnosed revolver with .38+P ammo and it definitely has some recoil. I also own a S&W Model 60 .357 magnum with a 3" barrel. The Model 60 is more pleasant to shoot with .357 ammo than the Model 642 with .38+P. The Model 642 weighs 15 oz, the Model 60 tips the scales at 24.5 oz.


S&W Model 642


S&W Model 60

[pipoman]

11. S&W lost credibility with

many die-hard S&W fans when they capitulated with the .gov resulting in the ridiculous lock on their handguns. I am not sure they ever fully recovered from that. Additionally they have spent a ton on the M&P sport rifle... problem is sport rifle buyers like the interchangeability and easy hotrodding of the AR platform. If I were to invest in a publicly traded firearms maker it wouldn't be S&W. All that said I really like my older S&Ws.

[Euromutt]

13. Strictly speaking, that wasn't S&W; it was their parent company, Tomkins PLC

Tomkins PLC, a British engineering firm, owned S&W at the time and it was actually they who signed the agreement, not anyone from S&W Corp. itself. Partly as a result of the negative reaction to the agreement, Tomkins ended up selling S&W to Saf-T-Hammer Corp., which placed S&W under a new holding company (the imaginatively named Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation), which declared the agreement null and void (since Tomkins PLC, the signatory, no longer owned S&W). People who still hold that against S&W just haven't been keeping up with developments.

I didn't think there was anything particularly proprietary about the M&P-15 line, though. The S&W 1911s, yes; they have a non-standard extractor, which is actually an improvement on the original design (the extractor is usually one of the first parts to break on a standard 1911).

And speaking for myself, I love my M&P pistols. As a southpaw, I really appreciate that they made a fully ambidextrous handgun.

[pipoman]

20. Wonder why they haven't discontinued

the stupid integral lock? Correct me if I'm wrong about the M&P rifles, it is my understanding that the uppers and lowers are not compatible with any AR type rifles, ex. Armalite upper, S&W lower...this is a mistake IMHO. Also since you brought up the 1911, 1911 fans/buyers really aren't looking for innovation on the design which has resulted in low sales, again IMO. The M&P pistols were fine, new, different and a reasonable idea. I am just not sure that S&W really has their fingers on the pulse of their customers. Why do you think their sales and stock values are languishing?

I like my P&R revolvers and M39s...hated a Sigma I owned. I'm not anti-S&W by any means, just think that they have some fairly serious PR issues.

[spin]

16. There have also been rumors that the lock can malfunction ...

and lock the weapon up. While none of the S&W revolvers that I own with a lock has ever had this problem, a person at the range I was shooting at claimed his revolver had locked up. I fortunately had a key and unlocked it for him. The range master felt that the shooter had merely forgot to unlock the firearm before he brought it to the range. He was a older fellow and sometimes his memory showed the effect of his age.

All Smith & Wesson revolvers have been equipped with an internal locking mechanism since the acquisition by Saf-T-Hammer. The mechanism is relatively unobtrusive, is activated with a special key, and renders the firearm inoperable. While the lock can simply be left disengaged, some gun enthusiasts will only buy "pre-lock" guns, fearing the lock might cause the gun to malfunction when needed most, as in a crisis. If the lock breaks, the gun will not work without being repaired.<25> Smith & Wesson has repeatedly stated that the locking mechanism does not affect reliability, although several cases have been documented.<26>

Smith & Wesson announced in March, 2009, that it would begin phasing the internal lock out of its revolver lineup.<27> According to Massad Ayoob in a reply to this statement, however, he claims this is a misquote. "In September (2008) during a visit to the factory, I learned that some in Springfield don't like the lock either and would like to get rid of it as much as anyone posting here. In January (2009) at the SHOT Show, another S&W exec told me simply that it ain't gonna happen."

Smith and Wesson is now producing the original model 442 and 642 without the internal lock.


Partial Lock Failure The hammer rebounded from the recoil of a magnum load and the internal lock pin impinged enough to freeze it in place
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smith_%26_Wesson

Many shooters I know prefer to buy used S&W revolvers made before the lock. Most firearms are shot very little and a used revolver can be an excellent buy if you know how to determine the indications of excessive wear.

[pipoman]

21. Exactly

They tried, it was a dismal failure, customers hate it, sales of used S&W does nothing for stock prices, time to go back to a time before they fixed what wasn't broken. I think the real problem was the Glock. Prior to the law enforcement industry's love affair with the Glock, most LEOs carried a S&W,they have never quite recovered the loss.

[Euromutt]

15. What the hell does a company's stock price prove?

The workings of the stock market were best summed up 13 years ago by The Economist's staff cartoonist, Kevin "Kal" Kallaher:


That a company's stock is doing badly or well is a reflection solely of the perceptions of investors and brokers, who are notoriously prone to panicking and group-think. It is not necessarily a reflection on how well or how badly the company is actually doing.

[safeinOhio]

18. A drop in sales might have more

to do with stock price than panic. That would not even require tin foil.

[jazzhound]

19. See post # 11 -- he hits the nail on the head.

S & W pissed off large numbers of RKBA supporters.

[pipoman]

22. No doubt...in the short term..

day traders and all. On the long term however, the stock prices are absolutely an indicator the strength of sales and the company overall.