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CDC updates 2008 data, new picture on more guns more crime.

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Atypical Liberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-21-11 10:26 AM
Original message
CDC updates 2008 data, new picture on more guns more crime.
http://www.wallsofthecity.net/2011/09/graphics-matter-year-the-third.html

"The "Number of Firearm-Related Death" line was not divided at all – its numbers are its numbers. However, be advised: this category includes "all Intents" of any fatal injury in which the "cause or mechanism" was a firearm, according to WISQARS – "all intents" includes "unintentional", "suicide", "homicide", "legal intervention", and "undetermined intent". This is done, with malice aforethought, to intentionally skew the numbers in favor of those who would support the "more guns = more deaths" hypothesis. Giving those people every benefit of the doubt makes it all the more priceless when their hypothesis is shown to be erroneous."

...

"This post graphically shows that the hypothesis that more firearms result in more firearm-related deaths is historically and demonstrably false. However, showing "more guns = more deaths" to be false does not prove "more guns = fewer deaths" true. In truth, as Yu-Ain Gonnano accurately observed last year, all this chart does is fails to reject the null hypothesis, which means there is more to the story than "gun control" extremists would have you believe with their "more guns = more deaths" oversimplification."
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Atypical Liberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-21-11 11:20 AM
Response to Original message
1. More key quotes from the article...
1. The hypothesis of "more guns = more deaths" is demonstrably false over the past 28 years of documented American history. The number of firearms in civilian circulation have been steadily increasing over that time period, and the number of firearm-related fatalities has not been equivalently increasing. However, again, since there seems to be some confusion on the concept, proving "more guns = more deaths" to be false does not prove "more guns = fewer deaths" to be true. Doing so would require accounting for far more variables than I did, and involve far more interesting math than I employed, and require controlling for far more variables than I care to.

2. When comparing raw numbers, there is a weak, negative correlation between the number of firearms in America and the number of firearm-related fatalities, and that correlation seems to become more negative with additional data.

3. When comparing rates, there is a strong, negative correlation between the number of firearms per person in America and the number of firearm-related fatalities per person, and that correlation seems to become more negative with additional data.


And finally this gem, which is what I've said all along:

However, while all of these pretty pictures do a fairly handy job of demolishing a childish argument far too repeatedly parroted by "gun control" extremists, none of it really matters – our rights are not subject to any statistics anyone can dredge or dream up. Or, to put it another way:

Where the hell do you get off thinking you can tell me I can’t own a gun? I don’t care if every other gun owner on the planet went out and murdered somebody last night. I didn’t. So piss off.

So, please, feel free to use these charts and this data to address the specious arguments of "gun control" extremists, but make sure never to buy into the basic premise that if, one day, the statistics were to turn against us, it would be "appropriate" to abridge our rights. It would not be, no matter how much other people might want it to.


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The Doctor. Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-21-11 11:33 AM
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2. I've used WISQARS before to demonstrate that fallacy.

We saw per capita gun deaths decline between '96 and '04 while the number of guns increased by nearly 50%. It's more correct to presume that economic issues and other factors play a bigger role in violence.
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GreenStormCloud Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-21-11 12:34 PM
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3. "undetermined intent" is CDCspeak for "justified homicide".
CDC doesn't want to admit that there is such a thing as shooting someone in self-defense so they try to hide it by pretending they don't know why the thug got shot.
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