DOJ/ATF use misleading numbers on US guns in Mexico

[burf]

Senator Grassley is calling the AG Holder and the ATF on the use of the numbers of "US source guns" in Mexico.
According to a press release:

According to ATF statistics, of the 21,313 guns submitted for tracing by the government of Mexico in 2009, only 5,444 of them (25 percent) traced back to federally licensed gun dealers in the United States. Similarly, in 2010, of 7,971 guns submitted for tracing by the government of Mexico, only 2,945 (37 percent) traced back to federally licensed gun dealers in the U.S.

Turns out, the 2009 numbers were for more than just 2009.

snip

Additionally, any statistics on the percentage of such guns tracing back to the United States are further skewed because of selection bias. As it has been widely noted, the government of Mexico only provides guns to the United States for tracing that they already have reason to believe originated here. There is no reason to submit for tracing guns that are known to originate in Mexico.


http://www.grassley.senate.gov/news/Article.cfm?customel_dataPageID_1502=37856

At the bottom of the press release, the Documents Related to the Facts provides a bunch of numbers related to the subject.

[iverglas]

1. well shoot my dawg and call me Sally

It's a press release from a Republican Senator!

Wait ... why am I pretending to be surprised?

[burf]

2. Again?

Can't refute the facts, so attack the source?

Pretty weak.

[iverglas]

3. "can't refute the facts"?

I didn't even read the "facts".

How would you know I can't refute them?

Got your pointy wizard hat on?

Here ya go:

FACT
The definition of a “U.S. source gun” used in these often cited statistics was not created by the ATF and is overly broad. It includes guns manufactured in the United States even if never sold by a federally licensed gun dealer in the United States. Such weapons may have been legally exported to foreign governments or stolen before falling into the wrong hands. That cannot be properly blamed on Americans exercising their Second Amendment freedoms.

Christmas, this guy would fit right in around here.

I mean, you'd almost think somebody had blamed something on "Americans exercising their Second Amendment freedoms", to hear him talk.

What a piece of shit demagogue.

Thanks for sharing!

[burf]

4. Your reply..........

I didn't even read the "facts".

Pretty much sums it up.

[iverglas]

7. that was past tense, y'see

Then I read the screed. See how I copied and pasted from it?

Earthshaking news, that was. It wasn't a brazillion guns going from the US to Mexico, it was only a gazillion. Nothing to look at here, folks.

Nothing to look at there, anyhow.

[oneshooter]

5. That is SOP for information the anti's don't like.

Of course if the info is some that they like, from the same source then it becomes a directive from on high and is untouchable.

Oneshooter
Armed and Livin in Texas

[iverglas]

8. post 4 and all that jazz

I couldn't care less about the "information". But I don't make a habit of liking/not liking actual information, I assure you. That would be dumb.

I was just knocked back on my heels a bit to click on a link in a thread-opening post at Democratic Underground and find a press release from a Republican senator!

C'mon, you gotta be thinking the same thing. Wha'???

[SteveM]

30. Your jazz always hits a sour note....

Such vacuous spew.

Like no one ever uses the GOP-founded, GOP-led Brady Bunch.

But, they must be liberal, they're anti-gun. Democrats, even!



;-)

[DanTex]

11. LOL. Truly hilarious.

I wonder how long it until some factually challenged pro-gunner decides to cite Sarah Palin's facebook page as a "reliable" source...

When it happens, remember, you heard it here first!

[iverglas]

12. be sure to recommend it!

I always think it's a shame what hilarity, I mean facts, the broad masses of DU miss out on by not checking this place out regularly.

[DanTex]

13. Did you know that the Obama health care plan is a "Ponzi Scheme"

It's right there in a press release on Paul Ryan's webpage (I won't post a link, you'll have to look it up yourself...)

Oh, and if you don't bother and refute those "facts" then it must be all be true...

:sarcasm:


The world of press releases from right-wing crazies is a very strange place indeed.

[iverglas]

15. well I'm miffed

I thought it was a plot hatched in Soviet Canuckistan. Not that we have much time for that sort of thing, being all halt and lame and blind leading blind as we are, as we wait decades for our hip replacements and cataract surgeries ...

[DanTex]

16. I heard that 90% of Canada's GDP comes from abortions...

...and the other 10% is from the death panels.

[iverglas]

17. no, that is simply not true

The other 10% comes from gay weddings.

[SteveM]

31. Whew! I'm glad we'll never see you cite Brady Bunch stuff...

You know the drill:

GOP-founded, GOP-led.

But you knew that.

;)

[TPaine7]

24. Some trust MAIG, the Joyce Foundation's researchers, the Brady Campaign, etc.

[DanTex]

25. Hopefully someday someone will explain to you the difference between peer-reviewed research...

...and a press release. And also the difference between Democrats and Republicans.

If you ever get a chance to spend some time around progressives and scientifically minded types, you should ask one of them...

[gejohnston]

27. maybe that same someone can explain the difference between

reasoned and civil discourse vs patronizing condescending bullshit, the difference between objective science and echo chamber propaganda dressed up as science to sell to the unwitting
Party has nothing to do with it.
If you ever get a chance to hang out with liberals and progressives and maybe real scientists, you should ask one of them.........................
The only people I ever heard use the term "scientifically minded" types or people, were not.

[SteveM]

32. Their "science" comes from the GOP-founded, GOP-led Bradys. nt

[gejohnston]

26. Don't forget that

applying critical thinking, showing skepticism, or even remotely questioning any of them makes you a stupid-right wing-anti intellectual-global warming denying rube.

[discntnt_irny_srcsm]

28. I know one thing for sure.

You don't need an ESL class. ;)

[rl6214]

29. "why am I pretending to be surprised?"

Because you are an anti-gun zealot.

[ileus]

6. When don't the anti's cook the numbers?

[iverglas]

10. uh .........

Lemme see. When they're Democrats, because Democrats have no scruples?

Not when they're Republicans, because, uh, hm, it can't be because they're Republicans, because what we're presented with in this thread is an upstanding trustworthy totally sound Republican. But then there's that "GOP-founded, GOP-led" Brady Centre thing to make yer head spin, isn't there?

I think I have to go with my first answer there, just because I'm betting it's the "right" one.

Did I guess right?

[SteveM]

33. GOP-founded, GOP-led Brady Center: The go-to for anti-2A folks here. nt

[jmg257]

9. Thousands of guns 'legally' purchased in the US, are getting into

Mexico. We know people with an agenda will often pick and choose and/or specifically frame or focus their 'facts'. I don't need the comments of a Dem-bashing republican to tell me that. I really don't need to be told 'things aren't so bad'.

Here we sometimes argue about statistics & scientific methods in shaping policy. But at what point do we stop bickering over the actual numbers and try to deal with the problem? Are the 9,000 guns knowingly seized and actually traced to US FFLs in the last 2 years not enough? Is this another number that is statistically irrelevant?

US penalties for arms trafficking are a joke. Mexican enforcement is often inadequate or non-existent. ATF schemes haven't been the smartest in action. Multiple long gun purchases aren't generally reported to the ATF. The drug war & drug users feed & fund the entire process. And individuals ARE trafficking guns bought using otherwise 'lawful' means in the US to Mexico.

These are problems that can & should be dealt with.



edit: cleaned up some

[hack89]

14. Targeted, focused solutions - ok

perhaps geographically limited for example. No nationwide, broad limitations or restrictions that significantly impact american civil liberties.

[jmg257]

18. And we have seen this type of response.

Obama intended to make it mandatory to report multiple long guns in border states. But what about guns from Las Vegas? What about the impact of gun trafficking on the whole nation, the whole continent?

It is in the interests of people making their money off trafficking in firearms to find way to do so, to find ways around or though the system.

I am generally against more control, but IF problems are to be resolved, or at least positively affected, some civil liberties might need to take a bit of a hit.

[spin]

19. Or perhaps we need to enforce the existing laws and ...

make the penalties for straw purchasing and smuggling firearms much higher.

Technically, I see little reason to be outraged if the fact that you bought multiple long guns is reported. If I buy multiple handguns, that fact is reported.

A Citizen`s Guide to Federal Firearms Laws

***snip***

Sale of a firearm by a federally licensed dealer must be documented by a federal form 4473, which identifies and includes other information about the purchaser, and records the make, model, and serial number of the firearm. Sales to an individual of multiple handguns within a five-day period require dealer notification to the Federal Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms. Violations of dealer record keeping requirements are punishable by a penalty of up to $1000 and one year`s imprisonment....emphasis added
http://www.nraila.org/gunlaws/federal/read.aspx?id=60

[jmg257]

21. I mentioned that in the earlier post...stiffer penalties.

I used to be all for it (and stll am), but I am not sure how effective even severly increasing the penaties would be as a deterent. Will these criminals take the risks anyway (due to potential gain, or thinking they won't get caught)?

The DOS thinks it would help, and the ATF agrees too.

At least it would be a start (as would mandatory reporting & documenting of multiple long gun purchases), but likely not enough.

[spin]

22. More agents on the ground might help ...

but in this current age of concern about the budget, it may be impossible.

One thing for sure is that I fully support reasonable efforts to limit the straw purchase and smuggling of firearms. I would also like to see the NICS background check required for all sales of firearms.

[jmg257]

23. I like the 'more agents' idea.

One thing everyone seems to agree on is that the best way to reduce crime is to increase police presence.

There has to be ways to implement/relate that practice to this specific problem.

And right you are - $$$ is always an issue, especially over the long haul. Hmmm...is another positive aspect that would come from revising the war on drugs - more $$ for other programs.

No problem with the NICS, another tool that could only help.

[hack89]

20. No - civil liberties don't need to take a hit

lets rationalize our drug laws and fix the problem by expanding civil liberties not restricting them.

[SteveM]

34. I agree. nt