Israel says Iran six months from having nuclear bomb

[lovuian]

http://feeds.bignewsnetwork.com/?sid=c3b0254c2ad16396

Big News Network.com Tuesday 20th September, 2005

Iran may be as little as six months away from completing the know-how to build a nuclear bomb, Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom said Monday.

According to Haaretz newspaper, Shalom told a meeting of U.S. Jewish leaders in New York, "The question is not if they are going to hold that bomb in 2009 or 2010 or 2011, the question is when they will have the full knowledge."

"According to our people, security and intelligence, they are very, very close. It may be only six months before they will have that full knowledge," he said.

Israel has been pressing the United States to pressure Iran through ardent supporters Vice President Dick Cheney, U.S. Ambassador to the UN, John Bolton, and former Defense Policy Board Chairman Richard Perle.

more...

Tick Tock Tick :nuke:

[saigon68]

1. how many bombs does Israel have?

[Behind the Aegis]

2. How many wars has Israel launched against her neighbors?!

Israel doesn't have a policy of destroying all Muslim nations or "pushing them into the sea." Can the same be said of her neighbors?

[saigon68]

5. sorry for asking

[LiberalVoice]

6. And your questions answers his question how? nt

[Behind the Aegis]

8. It didn't.

7 to my knowledge. But, that was not the "real" question was it?

On edit....maybe more...someone else has said MUCH more...I don't know...not Mossad, despite my pro-Israeli stance.

[Frederik]

13. 7 is ridiculously few

more like 2-400, about the same force de frappe as France has.

[Jim Sagle]

62. Good.

[Englander]

42. Try again, x10.

"Israeli nuclear forces, 2002

By Robert S. Norris, William Arkin, Hans M. Kristensen, and Joshua Handler
September/October 2002 pp. 73-75 (vol. 58, no. 05) © 2002 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

It is Israeli policy to neither confirm nor deny that it possesses nuclear weapons, although it is generally accepted by friend and foe alike that Israel has been a nuclear state for several decades. Its declaratory policy states: "Israel will not be the first country to introduce nuclear weapons in the Middle East," but its actual deployment and employment policies are secret. A January 2001 Pentagon report, Proliferation: Threat and Responses, omits Israel from its review of the Middle East, but a 1991 U.S. Strategic Air Command study lists Israel, India, and Pakistan as "de facto" nuclear weapon states. Estimates of the Israeli nuclear arsenal range from 75--200 weapons, comprising bombs, missile warheads, and possibly non-strategic (tactical) weapons.

http://www.thebulletin.org/article_nn.php?art_ofn=so02norris


Two books on the subject;


"The Samson Option : Israel's Nuclear Arsenal and American Foreign Policy "Seymour M Hersh, (New York: Random House, 1991)

"Israel and the Bomb" Avner Cohen 1998.

[Frederik]

12. How many wars has Iran launched?

Exactly zero, which is more than can be said about the significantly more bellicose Israel.

[genieroze]

26. Holy crap, those pics are creepy.

[Behind the Aegis]

49. And how many times has war been waged against Iran?

One...and that is still questionable to who started it (Personally, I think it was Iraq). Now, how many wars have been launched against Israel?

[mallard]

19. The bombing raid on Iraq's nuclear power plant in 1981....

... was definitely an act of war.

Loyalists of the Jewish state and citizens of neighboring countries always provide different versions of history. We mostly hear of Israel the victim and the US media make sure of it.

And how do you count pushing hundreds of thousands of Palestinians into refugee-hood?

[Frederik]

29. 1967

Israel attacked Jordan and Egypt and stole the Gaza strip from Egypt and the West Bank from Jordan.

1982, Israel invaded Lebanon.

[still_one]

32. excuse me but I think you have the facts a little wrong

In the 67 war Nassar aligned himself with the other Arab countries to "push Israel into the sea"

They were looking for total anhilation

Israel invaded Lebanon, because missles were being launched against them by Hamas

Frankly, it is futile to try to go back in the past. You can only go forward, and the unfortunate problem is that * did not take over where Clinton left off on the Israelli/Palestinian peace talks

That is where the process needs to begin

[ProgressiveMuslim]

38. Missiles launched from Lebanon by Hamas?

You'd better check your facts.

[still_one]

46. Sorry, I meant the PLO launching katyusha rockets

but I will still conceed that it was an over-reaction on the part of Israel.

The main point is that the Israelli/Palestinian situation needs to be solved. The past is the past

There has to be an independent Palestinian state, and an independent Israelli state, and until both sides realize that it is hopeless

[Centered]

34. from Arab2.com Isreal invades Southern Lebanon in 1978

1947:
UN Special Commission on Palestine recommends dividing Palestine into 2 states, one Jewish and one Arab
1948:
Britain withdraws from Palestine; Israel declares Independence; full-scale war erupts between Israel and its Arab neighbors, led by Transjordan, Egypt, Syria, and Iraq

1956:
Israel, France, and Britain invade Egypt; US condemns their allies and forces their retreat. UN force set up in Sinai Peninsula to prevent further attacks

1967:
Egypt orders UN force out of Sinai; Israel invades as a "pre-emptive" strike and occupies Gaza Strip and Sinai Peninsula (from Egypt), Golan Heights (from Syria) and West Bank and East Jerusalem (from Jordan). UN Resolution 242 calls upon Israel to "withdraw from territories occupied in recent hostilities" and calls for peaceful coexistence between all states in the region.


1973:
Egypt and Syria launch surprise attack to retake lost territory. They fail. UN Resolution 338 reiterates 242.

1977:
Sadat visits Jerusalem, addresses Israeli Knesset.

1978:
Jimmy Carter mediates Camp David Accords between Egypt and Israel; Israel invades southern Lebanon.

1979:
Sadat signs peace treaty with Menachem Begin; Arab League kicks Egypt out of its organization

1980:
Israel annexes East Jerusalem.

1981:
Sadat assassinated, Mubarak assumes presidency.



1982:
Israel completes withdrawal from Sinai. Israel launches full-scale invasion of Lebanon, bombs Beirut in attempt to force PLO out of Lebanon.

1987:
The Palestinian intifada (uprising) begins.

1988:
PLO recognizes Israel, renounces terrorism, accepts UN resolutions 242 and 338; US establishes limited dialogue with PLO.

1990:
US ends dialogue with PLO after Arafat failed to condemn an unsuccessful Palestinian attack against Israeli civilians.

1990:
Gulf War begins with Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait; Arafat sides with Iraq


1956 Looks like an interesting reversal in a way....

[Coastie for Truth]

44. What?

Egypt blocked the Straits - when I studied International Law for Seagoing Officers - blocking international waters was a violation of the long accepted International Law and Maritime Law rule of "Innocent Passage" and an act of war.

*

*

*

* -- an Acrobat PDF file.

* MS Word file.

*and hundreds more.

Or does Achille Lauro presage a new international maritime law role and set of rules.

[sabbat hunter]

78. gaza/west bank

how can israel steal land from egypt and jordan when it didnt belong to them in the first place?

also although possibly avoidable, in 1967 the arab armies were along the borders of israel and the gov't of israel felt they were under imminent danger of invasion so they launched a preemtive attack.

i mean lets face it jordan, syria and egypt were not the poor little victims in 1967.

david

[Orsino]

21. Depends upon whom you count as neighbors.

The Palestinians could tell a few stories. a policy of suppressing Muslims--actual or de facto--is bound to draw the ire of some of Israel's neighbors.

[ProgressiveMuslim]

37. Israel's "policies"

No... just pushing them into refugee camps.

Israel's "policies" are one thing. Its actions on the ground are quite another.

[leesa]

41. Doesn't have too. Israel has us to do the dirty work for her

WTF do you think Israel is trying to do right now, as we speak? She is trying to destroy all her neighbors, like she has been trying since inception.

[Behind the Aegis]

51. Poor grasp of history. n/t

[Englander]

69. There's a lot of it about,it seems. n/t

[punpirate]

7. Best estimates in the `80s was...

... about 200 or a little more. Now, perhaps as many as 400.

Yeah. *sigh*

[Coastie for Truth]

43. How many bombs has Israel launched.

"I am also VVAW" but that still doesn't answer the question - "How many bombs has Israel launched."

"Coastie"

Lieutenant, United States Coast Guard {Honorably Discharged)

[bluestateguy]

3. That's just a load of crap

n/t

[LittleClarkie]

4. I'll start practicing for the draft

"You can get anything you want at Alice's Restaurant..."

[meganmonkey]

33. And can you, can you imagine fifty people a day

I said
fifty people a day walking in singin a bar of Alice's Restaurant and
walking out. And friends they may thinks it's a movement.

And that's what it is , the Alice's Restaurant Anti-Massacre Movement, and all you got to do to join is sing it the next time it come's around on the
guitar.

(love that song :loveya: )

[LittleClarkie]

47. With feelin'

Me too.

And I'm getting pretty good at it too on the gee-tar. Was just hoping I'd never need to use it for it's intended purpose.

[Name removed]

9. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Jim Sagle]

63. Yup, you're a GOPer alright.

[NIGHT TRIPPER]

10. Israel needs to kick back-The U.S. gives them a blank check for violence

All Middle Eastern countries like Israel should be disarmed of all WMD's, especially Nukes.
If not then shouldn't they be invaded, taken over, occupied, ...I mean isn't that our current policy???

[genieroze]

27. The whole freaking planet should be disarmed of nukes.

[still_one]

30. that is the most intelligent comment in this thread so far

instead of everyone pointing at who is the bad guy, maybe we should start to get read of the fricking weapons of mass destruction

we can't use them anyway, without total disaster

[Missy M]

11. The words and phrases Shalom uses are the same type words....

used for WMD's in Iraq. They are "very, very close" and "It may be only six months" seem pretty familiar. "Close", "may be", "they will" solely based on those phrases, now is the time to pressure Iran. Could there be another invasion in the making.

[YapiYapo]

14. Correct me if i'm wrong but

Notable non-signatories to the Non-Proliferation Treaty are Israel, Pakistan, and India.

Seem like there are lot of double standard around.

/not saying Iran with nuclear weapon is a good thing.
//Has more to do with the upcoming Iranian oil bourse anyway

[Robeson]

15. Yes, and they have drones which will be able to deliver them within...

...minutes against London or us. They also have mobile biological ware-fare labratories...:sarcasm:

[Laughing Mirror]

16. . . . and weapons of mass destruction program related activities

or something like that. The list is endless! We must must attack! The time is now!

[mdelaguna2000]

17. Oh for crying out loud

Stop fanning the fire. Jeeeez.

[BootinUp]

18. The "know-how"

I see...so now we know whats in their scientists heads eh? Intelligence is really improving in leaps and bounds. I guess we have agents with mind melding capability now.

[pinniped]

20. Just wait it out, all the bad dudes will eventually flock to Iraq...

where they will be dealt with accordingly.

Isn't that the "Master Plan?"

[oblivious]

22. That headline's pretty misleading, isn't it?

I know it's not lovuian's fault, but the headline says "from having nuclear bomb", while the article says "from completing the know-how". Pretty big difference.

I assumed Iran and many other countries already had the know-how, so this article is just a bit of useless information just to provide an excuse for this inflammatory and misleading headline.

I don't know anything about Big News Network, but I now wonder about their credibility.

[ET Awful]

23. Too bad the IAEA disagrees. n/t

[drduffy]

24. several months ago Israel

received shipment on abut 500 bunkerbuster bombs. Wonder against whom they will be used? Although half of my family is Jewish and I wish well to the people of Israel, I can not support Sharon any more than the neocon bastards in our government.

[genieroze]

25. Then let Israel do something about it, we are broke. lol

[lateo]

28. Haven't we heard this before?

Next they will be saying Iran can strike the US in 45 minutes. These guys sound like a broken record.

[The Stranger]

31. That's funny, just a month ago they were 10 years away. Cui bono?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2005/08/01/DI2005080100998.html

Iran's Is Judged 10 Years From Nuclear Bomb

Dafna Linzer
Washington Post staff writer

Tuesday, August 2, 2005; 12:00 PM

A recent U.S. intelligence report, the National Intelligence Estimate, puts Iran about ten years away from having a key component needed for the manufacture of nuclear weapons. This estimate doubles the previous timetable of approximately five years, and broadens options for assessing Iran's motives and pursuing diplomatic avenues.

[weiser]

56. 10 years, 5 years now 6 months....

Who's right?

[Behind the Aegis]

57. Read the article

It says "Iran may be as little as six months away from completing the know-how to build a nuclear bomb.." It is not saying it will have a bomb.

[Englander]

76. And how long does it take to construct a nuke -

with the necessary materials & knowledge? Think about it.

Also, how many nukes does Israel have in it's arsenal?

[Roland99]

35. "It may only be six months". Hell it MAY be 6 days! OMG! RUN! BOMB!

Fucking morans.

[alcibiades_mystery]

36. WE BETTER ACT NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:eyes:

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[Bushwick Bill]

39. Ssshhh...that "bomb" is called an oil bourse

Especially in the case of Iran, it does not make sense to accept dollars only for its much-desired commodity. Given that Iran is seen as a hostile country by the current US administration for its intention to build its own nuclear reactors, one wonders whether the new IOB will not try to attract buyers other than Americans. Iran has recently announced that the new oil exchange will start up its computers in March 2006.
<snip>
Worse than an Iranian nuclear attack?
Weaned off the almighty commodity, the US dollar can have a deeper impact on the US economy than a direct nuclear attack by Iran. The permanent demand for dollar-denominated paper stems substantially from the fact that until now almost all resources of the world are quoted in it. While this led to the eurodollar (US dollar-denominated deposits at foreign banks or foreign branches of American banks) market in the 1970s, the new terms of trade could ring in the demise of the dollar as the premier reserve currency.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/GH26Dj01.html

While the dollar is still the standard currency for trading international oil sales, in 2006 Iran intends to set up an oil exchange (or bourse) that would facilitate global trading of oil between industrialized and developing countries by pricing sales in the euro, or “petroeuro.”<5> The vast majority of the world’s oil is traded on the New York NYMEX (Mercantile Exchange) and the London IPE (International Petroleum Exchange), both of which are operated by an Atlanta-based U.S. conglomerate. These oil exchanges transact oil trades in the dollar. Tehran’s plan to open an oil exchange that utilized the euro for global oil trades represents a significant obstacle towards stated neoconservative goals of U.S. global domination.
http://peakoil.com/static/editorial/Oil_Currency_Geopolitics.htm

[Coastie for Truth]

54. This is the real threat to the US as we reach "Peak Oil"

And tax breaks for oil drilling in ANWR or off of Santa Barbra or in the Donald Edwards Nature Preserve or boycotting Kyoto won't do us a darn bit of good. The first thing BushCo could do is raise CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) unto to 38 or even 45 mpg -- and the second he could do is go heavy with mass transit.

Israel or no Israel - Zionists or no Zionists -- we will be enmeshed in the Middle East and its politics until we become independent of ME oil.

[Name removed]

40. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Name removed]

50. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Coastie for Truth]

53. OIL Oil oil oiL OIL

Gimme a break!

Did you actually read "PNAC" The whole set of "PNAC" documents is at . Read it -- and open your eyes.

The famous "smoking gun" is -- Did you read it.

If you have the leisure time to read all the way the entire library - (as I did) once you get past William Kristal's wet dreams -- very little about Israel, or Zionism.

It is mostly about petroleum based geopolitics (you can find the academic petroleum geopolitical history and petroleum economic history in "A Century Of War: Anglo-American Oil Politics and the New World Order" by F. William Engdahl).

I'll ruin it for your and tell you the ending-- -

*Oil is getting harder to find, it is getting more sour (higher sulfur) and heavier (more difficult to distill - requires more "cracking", it is in farther away places with stranger sounding names where they hate us even more.
*Our economy is based on cheap, plentiful oil.
*Post the collapse of the USSR - we are in a "monopolar world"
*Which mean we have to enforce a Pax Americana.
*The purpose of the Pax American is to assert oil hegemony.
*Iraq is key to oil hegemony.
*Oil hegemony is key to the survival of the American way of life.
The PNAC Spin on "Peak Oil and James Howard Kunstler.

There - I spoiled it for you.

The "them" in the "war for them" and the "crap about Iraq" General Motors, Ford, Chrysler, Vallero, ExxonMobil, TexaconChevron, Royal Dutch Shell, British Petroleum, OXY, etc.

]OIL
OIL
OIL
OIL
OIL
OIL
OIL

[barb162]

60. So, uh, Coastie, what are you really trying to say again?

(just kidding)

[defiant1]

45. Fuck Israel....

When you have a stockpile of nuclear weapons, and have no intention of getting rid of them, then whining that someone else is trying to make them is pathetic.

I suspect that Iran wouldn't want nuclear weapons so bad if two of the countries with the most nuclear weapons didn't want to obliterate them.

Nuclear proliferation is ridiculous. These weapons serve no purpose but death and destruction.

[Colorado Blue]

48. Nuclear proliferation is ridiculous. I agree. So, why

the "Fuck Israel"?

Israel is arguing AGAINST nuclear proliferation. Iranian mullahs have specifically threatened Israel with nuclear holocaust, and Hizbollah, their clients in Lebanon, have already flown drones over Israeli territory. What if one were fitted with a bomb or other WMD? The mullah's argument was more or less as follows: "Israel only has about 6 million people, the Muslims have 1.3 billion. We could take Israel out and Islam would still survive the counterattack."

And, when a thing like that is said, what is really being said is, "fuck the 6 million human citizens of Israel." Surely that wasn't the intent of the statement, but it certainly sounds a little hostile. Given that the Israelis have been under attack since day 1 of their independence, have suffered through 5 wars and countless acts of terror, and in fact were hit with SCUDS from Iraq, and are threatened constantly with total annihilation, their point of view is hardly irrational. One in five Israelis has suffered some sort of injury, death or bereavement from this endless violence. We in America can't even begin to comprehend what that must be like. Proportionally, the losses in American terms would run into the tens of millions. It is probable that fear of Israel's nuclear deterrance has prevented far worse.

It should also be noted that the EU and the US AND the UN are also concerned about the potential development of nukes by Iran, which regards the US as "The Great Satan" and has "Death to America" painted on its aircraft, and in the '80's was involved with a war against Iraq that killed upwards of 1,000,000 people. So Israel's concern is hardly local or unique.

Having said that one hopes that diplomatic measures will suffice. Another war would be a tragedy, a disaster. The fact that North Korea has come to the table is great cause for hope. And frankly I don't see better energy alternatives at the moment. Working on long-range alternative energy sources, which involve neither nuclear power nor petroleum, is an absolute must for the people of this planet. Otherwise we're hostage to two potentially dangerous, polluting, and politically volatile sources of energy - either of which could wind up killing us all.

Finally, I'm adding this link to Wikipedia, which shows a map of Israel and Arab League states. Iran isn't even indicated in green - it's the huge state just to the east of Iraq - but the relative size/population of Israel vis a vis her neighbors should be pretty obvious, and it should be pretty obvious why they are worried about their long range survival.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Israeli_conflict

[defiant1]

52. Uhhhh.....

If Israel is so against proliferation, what's with the stockpile of nuclear weapons?? Any plans, on their part, to reduce, and maybe eliminate all together this cache?

If not, then they have no business telling any other country not to pursue whatever kind of protection that country sees fit to produce.

So I didn't mean, fuck the 6 million inhabitants of the country. I meant fuck the ones who are crying because Iran feels the need to protect itself(and who wouldn't when your two biggest rivals possess enough weapons to vaporize you off the face of the earth about 300 times over).

That's all. Thanks for the link. Lots of info wedged in there.

[Planterz]

59. So if I make a bomb, I earned the right to use it for self-protection?

...I'll have to check with my local police station about that one.

If Israel is so against proliferation, what's with the stockpile of nuclear weapons??

Dunno. But then, I live in America, which is not surrounded by countries that want to see Americans destroyed. Maybe that has something to do with it. Funny how governments view their own survival important enough to go to high extremes to preserve their people. How narcissistic.

Any plans, on their part, to reduce, and maybe eliminate all together this cache?

Any plans on Iran to start recognizing Israel as a country? Place Israel in its textbooks? Stop ending their Parliament with chants of Death to America? Start accepting <gasp!> Western foreign aid when an earthquake levels one of their towns, because the well-being of their people is more important than their pride?

Or is Iran's jingoistic hate-mongering nationalism a part of their culture or something, while Israel's nuclear deterrant is clearly the shocking abuse? Got any quotes of Israeli officials wanting to push all the arabs in the world into the sea? Do Israelis gather in their city cemetaries to pledge their willingness to carry out suicide attacks on arab civilians? Iranians say and do those things about Israelis, so let's go ahead and let them have the most destructive means to do it.

Israel has faced terrorist attacks for decades against its civilian population, many of them on both sides children who couldn't care about anything outside of being loved by their family. The United States of America faced one terrorist attack and took two countries in two years. You've noticed that the country we live in can deliver a payload enough to destroy the earth. We have more power to change things here than we have in Israel, yet it looks like we've failed. So why are we pointing fingers again?

Pot, meet kettle.

Compared to Iran, the U.S. is a paragon of restraint. Compared to the U.S., Israel is a paragon of restraint. I would say that before you have the power to eradicate whole populations of the earth, you should first show that you can govern people, openly and well.
I know for certain that I don't ask too much. When Iran has millions of jews living there without fear and represented in many levels of Iranian government, then it's debatable. Until then, hell no.

[barb162]

61. Welcome to DU

and nice post

[Colorado Blue]

71. Thank you. I think the fact that the Iranian president can't

even refer to Israel by name at the UN, preferring instead "Zionist entity", speaks volumes.

Welcome to DU.

[Colorado Blue]

73. I think, as I pointed out, the weapons are a deterrent. The

threats against Israel have been existential from Day 1 of her existence.

Should relations EVER normalize, and the threats cease, and Israel become a full-fledged, valued and respected member of the Middle Eastern family of nations, then there would be no need for the weapons.

The secondary reason for them is the fact that Jews as people, not just Israel as a nation, have been the targets of attempts to exterminate them. Israel exists as a haven but also as a defender of the Jewish people. History has proven that without a defense, the Jewish people will be wiped off the map. Israel was forged in the fires of WWII, and the nuclear weapons project was an outgrowth of that catastrophe. So the mindset there has always been one of facing doomsday threats.

Here in the US, we developed many of these same fears - during the Cold War - but they were probably more psychological than anything else. In Israel they're founded in reality - past and present.

I hope that, one day, people will realize that hatred and violence are abhorrent, and that we can all bury our weapons along with our self-inflicted wounds.

[Name removed]

64. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Englander]

55. The Iranians are coming!! The Iranians are coming!!

Or are they?

"Iran could acquire the bomb in five years, say British researchers

Ewen MacAskill, diplomatic editor
Wednesday September 7, 2005
The Guardian

Iran could secure a nuclear bomb in about five years if it makes a determined dash to acquire the weapon, according to the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.

But the institute, whose researchers visited Iran's nuclear facilities, said the more likely timescale was 10 to 15 years.

The institute's predictions, in its report Iran's Strategic Weapons Programme, are in line with the government's private assessment .

http://www.guardian.co.uk/iran/story/0,12858,1564006,00.html

[Coastie for Truth]

58. Peak oil is here! Peak oil is here!

*

*

*

Peak oil - our western economy and society is built on plentiful, cheap gasoline - which depends on plentiful, cheap, geological and politically accessible, low sulfur, light (C6-C10 rich) crude oil (at least in the short run). And light, sweet crude is getting less plentiful, less geologically accessible, and less politically accessible. And guess what - if Israel disappeared tomorrow, the Zionists disappeared tomorrow, the Jews disappeared tomorrow, AIPAC disappeared tomorrow, and the neocons disappeared tomorrow light, sweet crude would still get less plentiful, less geologically accessible, and less politically accessible.

References:

* "Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak by Kenneth S. Deffeyes
* "Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage" by Kenneth S. Deffeyes
* "Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy" by Matthew R. Simmons
* "The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of the Oil Age, Climate Change, and Other Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-first Century" by James Howard Kunstler
* "Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil" by David Goodstein

and Israel, and the Zionists, etc. have nothing to do with it.

[Englander]

66. Damn.

I was hoping that any reply would have a mention of Iran,
or nukes,or the IISS report, or Israel's 75-200 nukes,and
instead I get a post intended for a completely different
forum! I hate it when that happens.

[Coastie for Truth]

67. Maybe you just don't understand the geopolitics

where geology + politics = geopolitics AND geography + politics = geopolitics.

And maybe you haven't slogged through the PNAC collection

[Englander]

74. No, you completely missed the attempted humour...

in the subject headline, & the point I was making about
Shalom's alarmist propaganda, & what the intention of this
rw politician is, how Cheney, Bolton, Perle, & the rw
Israeli government are pushing for war with Iran.

[Violet_Crumble]

68. I think this forum should be renamed...

The Oil! Dhimmi! Oil! Dhimmi! Oil! Oil! And Nothing But Oil forum has a nice ring to it, don'tcha think? ;)

Violet...

[Coastie for Truth]

70. At least you have identified oil as a driving issue (citations omitted)

and that dhimmi is as real an issue as allegations of "apartheid" and "ethnic cleansing."

My posting has had some effect.

[Colorado Blue]

72. I think it SHOULD be renamed the Middle East forum. I/P

is only one issue of many involved in this region. It's become a focal point for many ills that afflict hundreds of millions of people - but it didn't CAUSE them.

Indeed the people of I/P have been victims of greater forces: oil politics, the Cold War and the proxy wars fought by great powers, geostrategic manipulations (aka "The Great Game") and the need for corrupt governments to blame somebody else for their problems.

And, I/P is simultaneously being used to deflect attention from those problems.

Why recognize Israel, establish secure borders, support moderation and and reconciliation, help create a Palestinian state, abolish discriminatory immigration laws against Palestinians who wish to live in other regions of the Arab world and end the institutional demonization of Israel and the Jewish people, when you can keep the pot boiling and the eyes of the world - and your people - off of YOU?

We need to see I/P in context. And that means respecting the historical context - in which dhimmitude played a role - sorry! - and oil politics has been and remains a major factor, from the end of the 19th century to the present.

[Coastie for Truth]

79. Anybody who fails to recognize the roles of

Anybody who fails to recognize the roles of:

1. Multi-lateral and universal racism (or call it ethnocentrism, hatred, bigotry, whatever), and

2. Oil, including access thereto, impending global shortages thereof, exploitation thereof (yes, in the Marxist sense of "exploitation" and not just the engineering sense)

is either functionally illiterate, academically illiterate, or totally biased or concentrating on the microstructure at the cellular level of the bark on the trees and totally missing the forest.

[idontwantaname]

80. please elaborate...

i understand the role oil plays in our society... but wouldnt this be more of a "foreign policy" or "energy" related issue?

how is oil related to I/P?

[Coastie for Truth]

81. Let me recommend a good read--

"A Century Of War: Anglo-American Oil Politics and the New World Order" by F. William Engdahl

A good introduction to how the switch from coal to oil impacted politics, especially in the Middle East.

I/P is just one part of the ME. And oil is the key to understanding ME. To concentrate on I/P to the exclusion of oil is to concentrate on the expression of microcellular biology of the bark of the individual trees instead of looking at the forest.

I am recommending Engdahl as a framework for historical and economic and geological analysis. (I do not specifically endorse every innuendo in the book).

[Colorado Blue]

82. Whoa - it has EVERYTHING to do with I/P - with the entire

modern history of the Middle East, with the interaction between the British, the Arabs and the Jewish settlers, with the events of World Wars I and II, with the subsequent Great Power politics - including the Soviet funding of PLO and other Arab states; and the proxy wars of the great powers that involved Israel and many of the Arab states as well as the Palestinians - oil politics shaped the region and continue to impact it.

The map of the modern Middle East was largely created by fiat - the Sykes-Picot agreement between Britain and France - which carved up the former Ottoman Empire into the modern states we see today, as well as the "Palestine Mandate" which became Jordan, Israel, and the West Bank. That entire region had been promised to the Jews for their homeland but eventually only a small strip, plus the Negev Desert, was approved in the UN Partition after WWII. Jordan went to the Hashemites in return for their help in overthrowing the Turks, the Palestinians refused their share of the Partition and therefore their state; and the rest is history - which we're still living.

On a macro scale, both World Wars were fought at least in part to gain control of the Middle Eastern oil fields. That has obviously had a direct impact on the people of I/P - Jews and Arabs alike.

Subsequently, all of the modern Middle Eastern wars have involved the great powers, either directly or indirectly, as arms suppliers or "advisors"; sometimes both sides were funded and armed by the same party. At least one, 1967, was directly caused by Soviet meddling and misinformation. Engdalh implicates Kissinger, acting on behalf of Anglo American oil companies and their bankers, and other US/British-led interests, in the Yom Kippur War of 1973. Practically everybody was involved in Lebanon. The present government in Iran grew out of a rebellion against the pro-western Shah. Saddam Hussein was empowered to counterbalance the Shi'a government. The mujeheddin who became al Qaeda fought against the Soviets in Afghanistan. ALL of these factors affect I/P today.

None of this interest would have accrued to the region were it not for two factors: its geostrategic location, and OIL. I believe the I/P situation would have been settled long ago, had it not been for these factors, which have kept the region a hotbed of intrigue and struggle for control of this key region.

In modern times - look at Iraq! That's had an effect on Israel, a direct effect on Diaspora Jews as well; and it's involving al Qaeda, as well as fighters from Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Palestinian regions. This is as well, the implementation of Sharia law in the new constitution - which might well impact any state government in Palestine. And, some have even blamed the war on Israel and diaspora Jews.

Meanwhile it is oil money which is funding Hamas and Hizbollah as well as al Qaeda, the Arab League boycott against Israel has teeth because it involves oil-rich states. OPEC reacted against the US resupply of Israel in 1973, during the Yom Kippur War, by raising rates on crude oil. The threat of Iraqi and Iranian WMD's haunts the Israelis and impacts the region as well as global politics.

The oil money of the Iranians and the Sauds is directly impacting I/P in many ways, including PR efforts to aid the Palestinians as well as supplying arms and money to continue the war. It is said that Saddam funded suicide bombers, although he generally was NOT a supporter of terrorists like al Qaeda. And the industrial world's need for Arabian oil is also playing a role, in that it helps shape the approach to the I/P issue.

Engdahl is an interesting read, apparently written from the German POV, which makes it even more unusual.

[Englander]

75. "Never Mind the Relevance, Here's the Geopolitics..."

Howzat? ;)

[Lithos]

77. Would have been nice

Might have kept it out of this forum.




L-

[newyorican]

65. Flashback: Same shit, different country...

Attack Iraq soon, Sharon aide says

WASHINGTON - The United States should attack Iraq soon to stop dictator Saddam Hussein from developing nuclear weapons, Israeli officials said yesterday.
"Postponing the action to a later date would only enable Saddam to accelerate his weapons program, and then he would pose a more formidable threat," said Ranaan Gissin, a top adviser to Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.

Originally published on August 16, 2002

Full Article