Terrorist group victorious in war against Israel

[bemildred]

Equal time.

This past summer, the Lebanese-based terrorist group Hizballah was victorious in its war against Israel. When I say "victorious," I mean that the governments of Syria and Iran simply repeated over and over that Hizballah had won, and the Western press inevitably took their cues like obedient canaries. Of course, by any reasonable military standard, Hizballah was handed a crushing defeat. Its numbers were significantly depleted, its infrastructure denigrated, and its resupply lines at least partially blockaded. Israeli troops are in Hizballah territory, not vice versa. But in the logic of terrorism, victory is defined as mere survival. Just as bin Laden's continued cave-hopping, Daisy Cutter-dodging existence is somehow proof that America is losing the war on terror, so that Hizballah wasn't completely annihilated is proof of an Israeli defeat.

Fair enough. If Hizballah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah can dupe an entire subcontinent into believing that a shattered, reoccupied Lebanon is proof of victory, so be it. A few more Hizballah "victories" and Israel will own the entire Arabian Peninsula. But let's get serious. Let's assume that Hizballah's survival at least handed them an important propaganda victory over Israel. This assumption is proving accurate, but at most is a short term gain. This war has taught Israel some very important lessons.

First, Hizballah is much more militarily advanced than previously thought. But this fact, along with Hizballah's use of medium-range Iranian rockets, have exposed their capabilities. Before the war, Israel mistook Hizballah for a weak, disorganized band of ragtag guerillas. Hizballah no longer has this advantage. Second, Israel's defense forces are not as properly trained and supplied as previously thought. Rest assured that these deficiencies are not going uncorrected by the IDF. Israel has no choice. Their wars are wars of survival as well, and they can't afford to lose.

Most importantly, Sheikh Nasrallah, in a rare display of integrity, admitted in a recent TV interview that he would not have ordered the kidnapping of Israeli soldiers had he known it would lead to such a war. Translation: Nasrallah and Co. have shelved, temporarily at least, any plans to provoke Israel in any way that might renew hostilities. In other words, Israeli military force, or the credible threat of force, is currently preventing further terrorism.

Chicago Flame

[papau]

1. The Skeet op-ed appears to be the consensus of the world's military folks

However I did find amusing the EU left and its proclamations of Hizballah victory being shown on Arab TV (to prove that victory is losing 50% of the 2000 front line fighters plus all long range and most medium range rockets plus destruction of the property of the Grove owners that allowed permanent rocket launch pads to be built in their Groves plus the destruction of the homes hiding the storage of rockets) and the Arab TV viewers now rejecting that Hez victory view to the point that all the parades Sheikh Nasrallah planned and announced were and continue to be canceled (the Amir Taheri piece http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110008847 in the Wall Street Journal says has the same thought as the above - but then Taheri is considered misleading by the WIKI editors after he jumped from an Iranian Parliament discussion on a dress code law to have folks wear garments that showed you were a muslim to seeing a law equivalent to Jews wearing badges as under the Nazi's - current law does require Jews to identify themselves as such if they sell food - so it was not a big jump in logic - but badges for Jews was not actually under discussion or in the law).

In the end of course the death and infrastructure loss made the average Lebanese citizen the real victim (the number of dead Hez fights was actually a little less than the number of dead innocents). Hez has put into motion the ending of the Syrian claim to Lebanon, and the Iranian aid now being limited to money only - no weapons.

And as always Israel has taken a hit in the UN/world public opinion polls. Israel's real loss of course is the end of the push to return the West Bank and the likely return of a hard right government headed by Benjamin Netanyahu - the exact opposite direction Israel should be going in.

[msmcghee]

2. That last sentence is gripping.

"Israel's real loss of course is the end of the push to return the West Bank and the likely return of a hard right government headed by Benjamin Netanyahu - the exact opposite direction Israel should be going in."

That's what violence always accomplishes. It's a spiral that only ends when enough humans have died horrible deaths that one side or the other either gets weary of the campaign - or becomes physically incapable of throwing another blow - like Steve McQueen in Cool Hand Luke.

To me - that's why it's imperative first, for all nations to forswear the use of even small amounts of violence or intimidation against other states. Those things create a nucleus of emotional commitment in the minds of those who harbor testosterone fueled egos - that must eventually escalate to the next level - and on and on - until the really serious hard-liners are eagerly placed in control and the next World War looms on the horizon.

IMO it is imperative that bodies like the UN treat minor violations of the peace very seriously - perhaps with sanctions that greatly outweigh the initial offense. And that all peace-seeking nations provide full support for that policy.

An international body of law like the UN - can easily become a counterforce for peace that makes war more likely than before their existence - when they try to forgive seemingly small violations of the peace because not enough members consider the violation as serious enough to warrant a heavy hand.

[Tom Joad]

4. I think the number of dead children exceeded the number of dead

fighters. The number of dead children was put at about one third the number of total losses in Lebanon, so about 310 or so. Hizbullah is only admitting to 50 or so dead, and while this is likely underestimating, Isreal says that about 500 fighters died (and i am just as sure that was on overestimate).

In any case, many more innocents were killed than fighters. Many more fighters were recruited among the living. and Israel will be subject to war crime lawsuits for its war crimes.
Just can't say israel won this war.

[Name removed]

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[Name removed]

7. Deleted message

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[bemildred]

8. That is one of Mr. Soros' better efforts.

I don't see how anyone can compare the situation now, political, economic, demographic, military, what have you, with that which existed six years ago, say, without thinking that the current leadership of Israel is a herd of self-destructive loons.

[msmcghee]

15. Yes, sad isn't it? n/t

[msmcghee]

9. I must have missed the memo from Hamas . .

. . where they said if Israel will just be reasonable and negotiate in good faith with them that they will recognize the state of Israel and re-think their stated intention to never stop killing Jews until every last Jew in the mideast is dead.

Could you provide a link to that memo?

[IndianaGreen]

10. I gave you a link to Soros article, an article that you continue to ignore

Perhaps it is because Soros recognizes that the path to peace begins with Israel making peace with the Palestinians.

[msmcghee]

12. Israel has never been not-at-peace with the Palestinians.

Being at peace with someone simply means that you do not attack them (unless required in your own defense).

If you don't believe me then simply ask Hamas to stop firing rockets into Israel and taking shots at Israelis across the border and see what happens.

It's a shame such a test can not be undertaken - because "Israel refuses to be at peace" with the Palestinians.

[Tom Joad]

13. A reprehensible post, msmcghee.

[msmcghee]

14. I can't remember what I said. Oh wait.

That was the one where I used sarcasm to criticize your use of the number of dead children in Lebanon to refute the article's premise and justify your assertion that you, "Just can't say Israel won this war".

I personally find such "dead baby" comparisons to justify one's position particularly odious. I think it was far enough over-the-line to warrant some serious sarcasm. I guess you and the moderator disagreed.

FWIW I have no-one on ignore as I think that's a cowardly thing to do and I have never alerted on a post in reply to one of mine. If I think someone was over-the-line in replying to one of my posts I'll tell them in public where anyone else who cares to can see my reasons. The last thing I'd do is ask the moderator to erase it. Then, reminding the poster what a bad person they are - after you've had their post removed - seems like a particularly childish act. This place could use some more grown-ups IMO.

[Tom Joad]

16. Please familiarize yourself with forum rules.

Thank you.

[IndianaGreen]

3. More ridiculous neocon propaganda

You won't see the newspapers in Israel spewing this shit!

[pelsar]

5. actually if you read israeli papers you would...(hebrew)

the diversity of opinions in israel is quite wide with voices all across the spectrum....the advantages of an educated well-read society.

the general concensus however is as such:

from the military point of view hizballa was defeated in every battle. They used tactics such as sending out one to draw fire and get killed, which would then expose the israeli positions and other such sucide missions.

Tank losses were aprox 10 out of 400. Many tanks receiving multiple hits and surviving. The reserves were underequipped and undertrained...too much time in the territories and not training....so too for the infantry units.

equipment shortages go back years.

intellegence put hizballa on the back burner, with the lack of knowlege of the smaller katusha posistions being a problem

The IDF command and political level made a mess out of the war and ignored professional and past training lessons.

hizballa was better equiped than believed with sophisticated command and control, dug deep in the hills with entrances and shooting positions next to UN posistions (the UN never reported these violations...probably because they wanted to live)

the IAF had precise hits on all its targets and was well trained in avoiding SAMs.
_____________________

[IndianaGreen]

11. I hope that Israelis do not draw the wrong lessons from this debacle

According to some reports, Bush’s neoconservative brain trust – not satisfied with the catastrophic mess they’ve created in Iraq -- viewed Israel’s attack on Hezbollah and southern Lebanon as a prerequisite to a U.S. attack on Iran, Hezbollah’s ally. In any event, U.S. weapons, paid for by U.S. taxpayers, were used by the Israeli military, and these apparently included anti-personnel cluster bombs -- weapons which should be banned because they are indiscriminant and designed to maximize suffering.

Once again, the United States has failed to be a peace-maker. In this volatile part of the world, we now have more enemies, as does Israel.

So what was gained? Polls suggest that a majority of Israelis are ready to toss out their apparently incompetent prime minister, Ehud Olmert, who was elected just four months ago. Many are upset about losing the war and others about launching it in the first place. Meanwhile Hezbollah is claiming victory and rapidly expanding its influence in southern Lebanon. Of course, any claims of victory by either side should be tempered by the death and destruction which this war brought to Lebanon.

Talking about all of this is difficult. The holocaust and its legacy require deep respect and sensitivity. Those who are not Jewish or a member of another group targeted for extermination by the Nazis cannot imagine the holocaust’s traumatic impact and meaning. But the often-delivered charge, “If you criticize Israel, you must be anti-Semitic” is unfair. And unfortunately, it has been used as the “great silencer.” I can criticize my own country’s errors out of concern for justice. And I can criticize another country’s errors, even Israel’s, for the same reason and with the same motive. We do a disservice to the prospects for peace and justice in the Middle East if we silence debate or refrain from engaging in it.

I respect Israel’s right to exist and to defend itself but I don’t believe those rights give it carte blanche to humiliate, oppress, and violate other people. I believe the root cause of much of the current conflict is Israel’s occupation of Palestinian lands since the six day war in 1967. In the words of Uri Avnery, leader of the Israeli peace group Gush Shalom, “Either the settlements and an endless war, or the return of the occupied territories and peace.”

http://www.commondreams.org/views06/0903-22.htm