We take Saudi peace plan seriously, Olmert says

[oberliner]

“We must treat the Saudi initiative, especially its positive elements, seriously” declared Prime Minister Ehud Olmert on Sunday as he prepared for his afternoon summit meeting with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

At the weekly Sunday morning cabinet meeting, Olmert said that “Israel is following with great alertness developments in the Arab world and the policies of the moderate Arab states.” As for the original Saudi peace plan, which was adopted by the Arab Summit in Beirut (2002), the prime minister said that he is willing to adopt parts of it, emphasizing that the initiative includes positive elements.

“We have said more than once that the Saudi initiative is a matter that we treat seriously, and this is still our position,” declared Olmert. “We hope that at the summit of Arab heads-of-state that will be held in Riyadh, the plan’s positive elements will receive special emphasis, increasing the chances of negotiations between us and the Palestinian Authority.”

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3374943,00.html

What are everyone's thoughts on the Saudi initiative?

The text can be found here:

http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/AllDocsByUNID/5a7229b652beb9c5c1256b8a0054b62e

[dtotire]

1. Peace Proposal

We can only hope.

[papau]

2. The good was 2 state -& not demanding right of return-the bad was right of return via compensation

was not affirmed as the way to go.

As it stands now the Palestinians can get a State in 6 months with a bunch of cash and about as much land as the 67 green line gave them - or this can go on for for a few more decades.

It will be interesting to see which path Hamas chooses.

[Douglas Carpenter]

3. and would Israel be willing to accept a genuinely sovereign, contiguous,

viable and independent Palestinian state with control over their borders, resources and air space with a Palestinian-sovereign East Jerusalem as their capital; with freedom from impeded movement within the Palestinian state and unimpeded access to their sovereign capital in East Jerusalem? And would this include removing the majority of the illegal settlers and illegal settlements? This would be an absolute necessity to insure a contiguous and viable state and satisfy needs for genuine independence.

I realize that the unofficial Geneva Accord which has not been endorsed by the Israeli government--but does have the support of the Fatah leadership (but not Hamas) and some prominent Israeli doves--deals with many of these issues. But I was unaware that with the exception of the Taba talks nothing has been discussed by the Israeli government as an possible offer to the Palestinians that comes close to these minimal requirements for a viable, independent and economically viable state.

In other words does this mean a Palestinian state as independent and viable as any other state?

If you are aware of any official offers from the Israeli government I would genuinely like to know.

[papau]

6. Both parties operate under a Mid-East tradition of "until all is settled, nothing is

settled".

Taba is, as you say, the only real offer that was reasonable from a moderate Palestinian point of view (indeed Arafat later said he should have accepted the offer).

I believe the majority of both sides would accept Taba - indeed now son of Taba - Geneva - which is an unofficial but just about a completed document missing only the compensation method for settlers surrendering their homes and for those "non-renters" that lost property in 48 and 67 (I'd expect a payment directly to the new Palestinian state to mitigate the disruption of life suffered by the "renters" that left, willingly or un-willingly).

[Douglas Carpenter]

9. according to the EU notes, no actual offer was ever made at Taba,

However, it does appear that real progress may have been under way.

What is disconcerting is that Prime Minister Barak quickly distanced himself from the offer and claimed publicly that these were only talks not official negotiations. Also, Mr. Sharon who was expected by everyone to win the elections had stated categorically that he would not honor any such treaty if it was signed. Now recent polls in Israel show Bibi Netanyahu and Likud having a commanding lead.

Here is a link to the European Union summary document regarding the Taba talks first published in Haaretz on February 14, 2001:

http://www.arts.mcgill.ca/MEPP/PRRN/papers/moratinos.html

"Moratinos Document" - The peace that nearly was at Taba

By Akiva Eldar

Ha'aretz
14 February 2002 - link:

snip" This document, whose main points have been approved by the Taba negotiators as an accurate description of the discussions, casts additional doubts on the prevailing assumption that Ehud Barak "exposed Yasser Arafat's true face." It is true that on most of the issues discussed during that wintry week of negotiations, sizable gaps remain. Yet almost every line is redolent of the effort to find a compromise that would be acceptable to both sides. It is hard to escape the thought that if the negotiations at Camp David six months earlier had been conducted with equal seriousness, the intifada might never have erupted. And perhaps, if Barak had not waited until the final weeks before the election, and had instead sent his senior representatives to that southern hotel earlier, the violence might never have broken out."

link to the rest of Mr. Eldar's analysis as well as complete summary documents known as the "Moratinos Document"

http://www.arts.mcgill.ca/MEPP/PRRN/papers/moratinos.html

__________________________

Here is a link to very long 43 page pdf file summary. The article is neutral and dispassionate. It gives a very calm and rational critique of all sides:

Visions in Collisions: What Happened at Camp David and Taba
by Dr. Jeremy Pressman, University of Connecticut

link:

http://anacreon.clas.uconn.edu/~pressman/history.pdf

.

[Tom Joad]

4. Do you think Israel will evacuate 400,000 settlers in the WB?

All of whom were transferred illegally into the West Bank in direct violation of article 49 of the geneva convention?

http://www.btselem.org/English/Settlements/

[papau]

5. yes I believe the 100,000 settlers will be moved and compensated in any

peace agreement. The land exchange will bring 150,000 "settlers" onto the Israeli side of the wall. There are about 250,000 settlers in total. www.fmep.org/settlement_info/stats_data/settler_populations/population_israel_west_bank_1995-2005.html Pro-settler opponents claim that the barrier is a sly attempt to artificially create a border that excludes the settlers, creating "facts on the ground" that justify the mass dismantlement of hundreds of settlements and displacement of over 100,000 Jews from the land they claim as their biblical homeland
=======================================================

Population in Israel and West Bank Settlements*, 1995-2005
From: September - October 2006 Settlement Report

Year Population:
Israel Settler Population:

West Bank Population Growth: Israel (%) Population Growth: West Bank (%)
2005 6,987,000 246,100 1.8 5.1
2004 6,869,500 235,100 1.79 4.86
2003 6,748,400 224,200 1.77 4.41
2002 6,631,100 214,722 1.88 8.15
2001 6,508,800 198,535 2.19 2.88
2000 6,369,300 192,976 2.58 8.77
1999 6,209,100 177,411 2.78 8.64
1998 6,041,400 163,300 2.4 5.76
1997 5,900,000 154,400 2.47 8.2
1996 5,757,900 142,700 2.59 10.45
1995 5,612,300 129,200 N/A N/A

*Excluding East Jerusalem
========================================================================================================


Population statistics for Israeli West Bank settlements

Israeli Settlements in the West Bank
Name Population 2003*** Population 2000** Population 1999* Date of establishment Region
Adora 191 271 291 1983 Mount Hebron
Alei Zahav 424 391 355 1982 Samaria
Alfei Menashe 5,347 4,580 4,410 1983 Samaria
Allon Shevut 3,146 2,680 2,230 1970 Etzion Bloc
Almog 141 167 156 1977 Jordan Valley
Almon 726 698 672 1982 Benjamin
Argaman 169 164 155 1968 Jordan Valley
Ariel 16,053 15,600 15,100 1978 Samaria
Asfar (Metzad) 232 361 356 1984 Mount Hebron
Ateret 349 302 287 1981 Benjamin
Avnei Hefetz 964 785 695 n.a Samaria
Barkan 1,217 1,150 1,080 1981 Samaria
Bat Ayin 767 1989 Etzion Bloc
Beit Arye 2,522 2,380 2,330 1981 Samaria
Beit El 4,627 4,120 3,800 1977 Benjamin
Beit ha'Arava 54 55 45 1980 Jordan Valley
Beit Horon 822 772 720 1977 Benjamin
Benjamin Beqa'ot 145 144 144 1972 Jordan Valley
Betar 'Illit 22,926 15,800 12,700 1985 Etzion Bloc
Bitronot (Nahal) 1984 Jordan Valley
Bracha 880 752 714 1982 Samaria
Dolev 973 880 850 1983 Benjamin
Doran 1982 Mount Hebron
Efrat(a) 7,037 6,430 6,230 1980 Etzion Bloc
El'azar 882 784 747 1975 Etzion Bloc
Eli 2,058 1,900 1,730 1984 Samaria
Elisha (Nahal) 753 n.a. 1983 Jordan Valley
Elkana 3,050 2,990 2,940 1977 Samaria
Elon Moreh 1,097 1,060 1,050 1979 Samaria
Emmanuel 2,455 3,040 3,150 1982 Samaria
En Hogla 1982 Jodan Valley
Enav 473 500 504 1981 Samaria
Eshkolot 220 171 148 1982 Mount Hebron
Etz Efrayim 617 525 500 1985 Samaria
Gannim↔ 139 158 149 1983 Samaria
Geva Binyamin (Adam) 1,801 1,020 707 1983 Benjamin
Geva'ot 44 1984 Etzion Bloc
Gilgal 162 180 164 1970 Jordan Valley
Gittit 119 100 109 1973 Jordan Valley
Giv'at Ze'ev 10,790 10,300 10,000 1982 Benjamin
Giv'on haHadasha 1,224 1,190 1,180 1980 Benjamin
Hagai 388 406 405 1984 Mount Hebron
Hallamish 915 922 1,100 1977 Benjamin
Hamra 131 147 149 1971 Jordan Valley
Har Adar (Giv'at HaRadar) 1,839 1,420 1,380 1986 Benjamin
Har Gilo 365 369 363 1972 Etzion Bloc
Hashmona'im 2,097 1,830 1,770 1985 Benjamin
Hebron 554# 1980
Hemdat (Nahal) 107 1980 Jordan Valley
Hermesh 229 279 272 1982 Samaria
Hinnanit 669 481 432 1981 Samaria
Homesh↔ 156 159 163 1980 Samaria
Itamar 557 541 511 1984 Samaria
Kaddim↔ 128 148 138 1983 Samaria
Kalya 260 260 262 1968 Jordan Valley
Karmei Zur 623 481 422 1984 Etzion Bloc
Karmel 321 246 252 1981 Mount Hebron
Karne Shomron 6,093 5,890 5,590 1978 Samaria
Kedar 624 447 393 1984 Benjamin
Kedumim 2,934 2,660 2,540 1975 Samaria
Kfar Adummim 1,866 1,690 1,590 1979 Benjamin
Kfar Etzion 404 427 421 1967 Etzion Bloc
Kfar Tapuah 523 347 352 1978 Samaria
Kiryat Arba 6,605 6,380 6,240 1972 Mount Hebron
Kiryat Netafim 384 249 240 1982 Samaria
Kokhav haShahar 1,367 1,150 1,080 1977 Benjamin
Kokhav Ya'acov (Abir Ya'acov) 3,819 1,640 1,260 1984 Benjamin
Lapid 2,176 N.A. Benjamin
Ma'ale Adummim 27,259 24,900 23,800 1975 Benjamin
Ma'ale Amos 299 336 342 1981 Etzion Bloc
Ma'ale Efrayim 1,443 1,480 1,460 1970 Jordan Valley
Ma'ale Levona 497 445 447 1983 Benjamin
Ma'ale Mikhmas 980 826 753 1981 Benjamin
Ma'ale Shomron 533 527 486 1980 Samaria
Mahane Giv'on 1977 Benjamin
Ma'on 327 283 265 1981 Mount Hebron
Maskiyyot 507 N/A 1987 Jordan Valley
Massu'a 145 148 140 1970 Jordan Valley
Mattityahu 1,365 1,380 1,410 1981 Benjamin
Mehola 327 306 315 1968 Jordan Valley
Mekhora 125 113 120 1973 Jordan Valley
Menora 1,240 768 332 1998 Jordan Valley
Mevo Dotan 289 310 314 1978 Samaria
Mevo Horon 712 497 494 1970 Benjamin
Mezadot Yehuda 412 422 412 1980 Mount Hebron
Migdal Oz 298 289 280 1977 Etzion Bloc
Migdalim 152 154 150 1984 Samaria
Mitzpe Shalem 193 210 208 1971 Megilot
Mitzpe Yericho 1,430 1,210 1,160 1978 Benjamin
Modi'in Illit 24,290 16,400 13,000 1981
Na'aleh 556 137 105 Appr./1981+ Benjamin
Nahli'el 248 244 230 1984 Benjamin
Negohot 134 409 n/a 1982 Mount Hebron
Netiv HaGedud 120 139 143 1976 Jordan Valley
Neve Daniel 1,073 933 868 1982 Etzion Bloc
Nili 806 721 666 1981 Benjamin
Niran 52 56 45 1977 Jordan Valley
Nofim 402 385 362 b.s.up Samaria
Nokdim 646 611 526 1982 Etzion Bloc
Na'omi 123 121 133 1982 Jordan Valley
Ofarim 870 686 623 1989 Benjamin
Ofra 2,214 1,880 1,870 1975 Benjamin
Oranit 5,316 5,070 4,780 1984 Samaria
Otni'el 698 560 553 1983 Mount Hebron
Peduel 1,088 885 834 1984 Samaria
Pene Hever (Ma'ale Hever) 376 304 266 1982 Mount Hebron
Psagot 1,278 1,090 1,030 1981 Benjamin
Peza'el 213 224 228 1975 Jordan Valley
Rehan 129 120 100 1977 Samaria
Revava 703 504 389 1991 Samaria
Rimmonim 512 499 474 1977 Benjamin
Ro'i 118 141 133 1976 Jordan Valley
Rosh Tzurim 263 265 290 1969 Etzion Bloc
Rotem (Nahal) 24 1984
Sa Nur↔ 55 52 54 1982 Samaria
Sal'it 441 410 377 1977 Samaria
Sha'are Tikva 3,692 3,380 3,220 1982 Samaria
Shadmot Mehola 507 399 400 1978
Shaked 524 497 468 1981 Samaria
Shani 438 483 490 1989 Mount Hebron
Shavei Shomron 604 573 569 1977 Samaria
Shilo 1,810 1,580 1,490 1979 Benjamin
Shim'a 357 296 263 1985 Mount Hebron
Shvut Rachel N.A.
Susiya 643 482 468 1983 Mount Hebron
Talmon 1,618 1,250 1,150 1989 Benjamin
Tekoa 1,116 980 948 1977 Etzion Bloc
Telem 127 97 101 1981 Mount Hebron
Tene (Ma'ale Omarim) 563 561 580 1983 Mount Hebron
Tomer 298 308 307 1978 Jordan Valley
Tzurif 1984 Etzion Bloc
Vered Jericho 161 164 155 1980 Benjamin
Ya'arit N.A. Samaria
Yafit 95 125 118 1980 Jordan Valley
Yakir 932 822 765 1981 Samaria
Yitav 136 114 107 1970 Jordan Valley
Yitzhar 440 329 328 1983 Samaria
Zofin 1,040 857 794 N.A. Samaria
Total: 226,852 192,976 177,411


Footnotes
* Source: List of Localities: Their Population and Codes, 31.12.1999. Jerusalem: Central Bureau of Statistics, 2000.
** Source: List of Localities: Their Population and Codes, 31.12.2000. Jerusalem: Central Bureau of Statistics, 2001.
*** Source: http://asp.fmep.org/app/settlement/ShowSettlementTablePage.aspx
#Figure for 2003, AP, (December 30, 2003)
↔ The settlements of Gannim, Hodesh, Kaddim and Sa Nur were evacuated in 2005.

[breakaleg]

7. 1/4 is what you think is fair?

[papau]

8. ? - 1/4 of what? - 100000 to 120000 lose their homes - the rest are inside Israel proper after a

peace agreement. Those that lose their homes need to be compensated - in the same manner as the less than 10,000 who lost their homes in Gaza were compensated after the Gaza pullout.

On the other side also needing compensation (or actual right of return - their choice) are the arabs that had ownership papers to real estate in Israel and fled, plus the vast majority of the 600,000 that fled that were renters, not owners, but should be compensated via a payment to the new state of Palestine - at least in my opinion (renters have never been compensated before in any war - but Israel needs to do this in order to lay to rest the "right of return").

I do not understand what 1/4 refers to.

[breakaleg]

10. It's interesting that it's already a given what land Israel will get to keep given that

ALL of the settlements are considered illegal under international law. Perhaps that's why the two sides are so far apart.

[papau]

11. The land swaps in Geneva are logical - forever war is not logical n/t

n/t

[Englander]

12. Israeli and Palestinian leaders make little progress at summit

By Josef Federman, Associated Press | March 12, 2007

JERUSALEM -- The second summit in a month between the Israeli and Palestinian leaders, encouraged by US officials as a way to nurture their fledgling dialogue, produced little progress yesterday. A Palestinian participant called it "difficult."

In the only concrete result, an Israeli official said Prime Minister Ehud Olmert of Israel pledged to keep the vital Karni cargo crossing between Israel and Gaza open for longer hours to allow more goods to enter and exit the seaside territory. Israel has kept Karni closed often, citing security threats.

Larger issues standing in the way of a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians -- borders, Jewish settlements, Palestinian refugees, Jerusalem -- were apparently not even seriously discussed. Olmert said in advance that the talks with the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, would be limited to humanitarian issues.

His position reflected Israel's rejection of the government headed by the anti-Israel Hamas, as well as the impending Palestinian unity government consisting of Hamas and Abbas' s more moderate Fatah movement.

Mohammed Dahlan, a Palestinian negotiator who attended the meeting, called the summit "difficult." He said the Palestinians called on Olmert to fulfill his pledge to ease travel restrictions in the West Bank by removing roadblocks, and to release sick and elderly Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails, but Olmert made no promises.

http://www.boston.com/news/world/middleeast/articles/2007/03/12/israeli_and_palestinian_leaders_make_little_progress_at_summit/


ANALYSIS: The Saudi plan will advance the peace process
By Aluf Benn, Haaretz Correspondent

After months of stagnation and hesitation, in which Prime Minister Ehud Olmert lost almost all public support in his leadership, he revealed a new political agenda on Sunday.

>snip

Olmert desperately needs a political initiative that will provide him with some political oxygen. He knows he won't be able to continue in his post much longer, what with his negligible public support, the criticism over the second Lebanon war, the waves of scandals and the absence of an agenda. The Saudi initiative gives Olmert a chance to recover, if he can manage to demonstrate political progress. He doesn't have a lot to lose.

Above all, the magic of the Saudi initiative stems from its being merely a declaration of principles rather than a detailed plan.

Thus it is possible to speak in slogans, negotiate over the wording, and defer paying the domestic price that withdrawal from the West Bank and the Golan Heights entails.

But make no mistake: If Israel accepts the Saudi initiative, even only as the basis for negotiations, it will be taking a huge step toward the end of its control over the territories - one that even Olmert's successors will have difficulty renouncing.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/836143.html