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Well said.
You wrote: "The longer that time goes by without a peace settlement the less likely it is that the settlement will ever happen. It's a law of nature that it's way harder to maintain order than it is to allow things to degrade into chaos. Building a successful society is hard. Ruining one is easier. "
That reminds me of the cliche going around about post communist eastern europe in the early 90s, one version of which was "It is easy to turn an aquarium into fish soup; it's not so easy to turn fish soup into an aquarium."
On the other hand, the collapse of order in Palestine and Israel (ie the current endless stream of scandals and impending deligitimation of the government) may provide an opportunity, if South Africa is a precedent.
Contrary to western assumptions, as South Africans negotiated their new system, a civil war was raging, and the country's political institutions on both sides were literally falling apart. The ANC's militias were out of control; several homelands (which were supposed to be puppets of the SA government) had coups and were in ANC hands, and the ones that weren't were refusing to go along with the new order and dissolve; the security police were instigating riots and committing masacres.
At one point the ANC demanded that de Klerk order the security police to stop massacres against civilians, but nothing happened. At that point, the ANC leadership openly wondered: either de Klerk is a liar and not a useful negotiating partner; or he no longer has control over the security forces, in which case he is powerless to deliver a deal and they are negotiating with the wrong people.
At that point both sides seemed to realize that it wasn't "the" South African government and "the" ANC that had to make a deal. It was the pro-Constitution factions of the government and pro-Constitution factions of the ANC and pro-Constitution factions of other parties that had to make the deal.
In other words, the dissolution of the construct of "the government" and "the ANC" that made it possible for those factions that wanted to move forward to do so. At that point one homelands army mutinied in favor of the constitutional negotiations, crushing a white separatist insurgency in western Transvaal, and the official South African Defense Force threw its weight behind the pro-Constitution parties. That motely alliance, not "the government" and "the ANC" pulled off the transition.
Interesting side note that few Americans know: There was a plot to assassinate Mandela immediately after the elections of 1993. It was not from white separatists or the security police, but from within the ANC. There was a brutal ANC warlord named Henry Gwala whose power rested on the continuation of civil war in Zululand, and he knew that the end of the war meant the end of his power. He wanted the war to continue and knew it would if Mandela was assassinated. Israelis and Palestinians need to understand that there are many Henry Gwalas on both sides in their own struggle, some in very, very high places on both sides.
The lesson is that when Israelis and Palestinians stop worrying about unity on each of their sides, when they realize that the deal will not be between "Israel" and "the Palestinians" (presently, two all but useless constructs) but that a deal is to be made between Labor, the Israeli peace movement, pro-peace elements in the IDF, perhaps a majority of Israeli citizens, Fatah, and Palestinian civil society with the support of Jordan, Egypt, the US and EU -- and they have to unite against the obstructionists to save society, that peace will be achieved.
You also wrote: "I don't think many people here, (anyone actually) who feels that all Palestinians are blood-thirsty anti-semites or any racist hyperbole like that. It's an unfortunate side effect of ethnic conflicts that the many everyday, rational, peaceful folks on both sides suddenly find themselves assigned sides in a fight they weren't looking for."
As a newcomer to this forum, I have to disagree. I was amazed at how many of my posts were answered with some version of "you don't understand the Palestinians, they are all blood thirsty terrorists, and Israel has to do what it does because of that."
If you take that position, there is no hope for peace because you have a mortal enemy, not a group with opposing interests that needs to be bargained with.
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