The death of the two-state solution

[bemildred]

Last week's developments in Gaza culminating in Fatah's defeat by Hamas resulted in the formation of two Palestinian governments, one led by Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Gaza and the other by Fatah's Salaam Fayad in the West Bank. Call it a nightmare, a fiasco, fragmentation, but not temporary, as all the vital signs indicate that the political partition of the West Bank and Gaza is a fait accompli, unlikely to reverse short of an all-out Israeli military invasion and reoccupation of Gaza.

According to the liberal Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz, that is precisely what Israel's new Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who is also the new chairman of the Labor Party, is planning, a "military operation in Gaza within weeks". According to the report, Barak's aim is to destroy Hamas militarily. Then what? Keep Gaza indefinitely occupied, or hand over the authority to the much-discredited Fatah operatives from the West Bank?

If Hamas plays its cards right, such as by refraining from any attacks on Israel, then it will be difficult for Barak and other Israeli leaders to justify a unilateral reinvasion of Gaza. Already, in his first interview with the European press since trouncing Fatah, Haniyeh has taken credit for bringing "stability" to Gaza after many months of growing chaos.

Indicating Hamas' willingness to abide by a two-state solution, Haniyeh has stated: "We have agreed to respect all the past agreements signed by the Palestinian Authority." But of course, that does not include the latest "presidential" decrees of the Palestinian Authority's Mahmud Abbas, outlawing Hamas' military wing, Izaddin Kassam, and appointing Fayad to replace Haniyeh.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/IF20Ak04.html

[The Magistrate]

1. Then Perhaps We Will Have Three, Sir

Any 'one state solution' will be simply the present writ hard: Israel the state, and stateless preserves on its perimeters, possibly drifting again to the post '48 condition of effective attachment to Jordan and Egypt....

There is, by the way, no chance at all, or worth wager at any odds, anyway, of Hamas 'playing its cards right' in connection with attacks on Israel out of Gaza. They will occur, and be the responsibility of Hamas even if carried out by splinter groups un-affiliated with that body.

"Have you heard the one about the dog who caught the bus?"

[AviBaruch]

3. Egypt absorbs Gaza, Jordan absorbs the West Bank

any thoughts?

[azurnoir]

4. Not going to happen

but it is a "nice" thought, Gaza will either be retaken by an American armed and backed Fatah or Israel will re invade Gaza as it is now a rogue state lead by a rouge government. So why all the fuss? Could be the discovery of a natural gas deposit off the coast of Gaza in 2000? Once developed this would give whom ever is running Gaza the revenues from LNG sales, something Israel might fear Hamas having but with Abbas as leader I am sure a beneficial to all involved exceopt perhaps the Palestinian people has been cut between Abbas, the EU, America, and Israel.

[The Magistrate]

5. Put Bluntly, Sir

My abandoning regular comment here a couple of years ago owes to the increasingly depressing nature of any of the likely, or even possible, outcomes, by now. This one is no better, nor much worse, than most of the rest. My personal expectation is that the thing will cripple on indefinitely along about the present lines, with no decisive change in either direction: twenty or thirty years on, the lineaments of the thing will not be much changed. Hopefully, persons not directly involved will have grown bored as people are by now with Cyprus....

"Past behavior is the best guide for future performance."

[AviBaruch]

7. Very sad reply

[The Magistrate]

8. A Certain Sadness, Sir, Becomes An Old Man...

"A pessimist is someone who has met too many optimists."

[AviBaruch]

9. I remain optimistic of the prospects of peace

I believe there's no harm in such a hope.

[Solo_in_MD]

19. How about Israel absorbs the west bank and gaza

and residents there are given Israeli citizenship with full privileges:
- They would be able to sue to recover their land
- Best infrastructure and standard of living in the region
- Best overall solution for the people who are there

Jordan and Egypt effectively abandoned both areas in the late 70s. They Palestinian leadership has shown itself to be inadequate and corrupt at best. It would be the most rationale approach.

[bemildred]

6. Hard to say.

I'm just kind of watching the show at this point. It looks to me like everyone is playing catchup with events on the ground. However there is no change in the military situation other than the removal of whatever credibility Fatah may have had, perhaps a boost for Hamas. All of the political leaders seem to be still working on getting their new story straight.

[The Magistrate]

10. There Is, My Friend, Often a 'Much Ado About Nothing' Quality To Events In the Levant

Real fighting between Fatah and Hamas will be hampered by the lack of a common border between the Arab Palestinian enclaves in Gaza and the Jordan Valley. The Fatah organization in Gaza has already, at least apparently, been over-mastered, and there is no reason to expect it will reverse this on its own acount soon. For it to be strengthened, someone will have to co-operate, and facilitate transit of new men and weapons. The only over-land routes are Israel and Egypt, and it is hard to see formed forces traversing either, or even much in the way of covert irregulars.

What each faction does have available to attack is the adherents of the party weaker than it in the area it dominates. Reciprocal purge would seem the most likely order of the new day. But this would change nothing of the basic equation: extirpating Hamas in the Jordan Valley would not break its hold on Gaza; extirpating Fatah in Gaza would not give Hamas control of the Jordan Valley.

[bemildred]

11. For now, Hamas is in hiding; but activists say they haven't given up fight to seize West Bank

It's almost like you can read minds, Sir ...

RAMALLAH, West Bank: Hamas leaders in the West Bank have been driven underground by a Fatah campaign of kidnappings and arrests, but the Islamic militants warn they'll eventually come out of hiding to try to destabilize the rule of moderate Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas with car bombings and assassinations.

Hamas is too weak now for a frontal assault on Fatah in the West Bank, but Iranian funding for Hamas, Abbas' political weakness and Fatah's bitter infighting could one day change the balance, Fatah leaders, Hamas militants and Israeli analysts say.

The Abbas-allied security forces say they're determined to snuff out Hamas in the West Bank. Abbas declared the Hamas militias illegal over the weekend, and his security chiefs said they wouldn't just go after Hamas' weapons, but also its money.

"The only way to deal with Hamas ... is by dismantling every single military cell in the West Bank, and that's what the security apparatus is doing now," said Kamal Abu Rob, a Fatah lawmaker and ex-gunman.

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/06/19/africa/ME-GEN-Palestinians-Hamas-In-Wait.php

[The Magistrate]

13. The Moves Are Pretty Obvious, Sir

This is not going to be pretty. It will be interesting to watch the reactions in some camps as details emerge about how these intercine conflicts are being carried out. The '...also it's money...' declaration has a tinny ring about it: Fatah does not have the name of honest men where cash is concerned, and anyone with much in the way of funds will doubtless be viewed by someone with a leading security role as a Hamas sympathizer, absent some well-timed present, at least. Real Hamas money men, of course, will know this too, and make the appropriate gestures. Fat times loom for chieftains....

"The difficulty in employing double agents is predicting on which end the balance of treachery will come to rest."

[pelsar]

12. just to add some additional info...

seem haartez is a bit behind:

lets see, from israeli TV, hamas in the westbank has now gone underground with fatah patrolling with heavy weapons....any disturbance and they go in force immediately.

the Palestinians who tried to escape to israel are stuck in the transit area receiving food and water from israel and the wounded being taken to israel. Hamas who now has roadblocks, shot 20 of the a Palestinians there.....israel returned fire (lets see now, israel is shooting at hamas to save unarmed Palestinians trying to escape into israel...out of Palestinian gaza). Hamas other than shooting at them, has made no effort to bring them back to gaza...most are fatah people (actually hamas denied shooting at them, and claimed it was a "splinter group."

interviews with fatah and hamas (including their kids) shows a real hatred for each other. The prisoners, in israeli jails are now separated...the tension is "in the air."

Israel is transferring food and materials to gaza...Egypt refuses to.

havent heard much about the war crimes....i guess nobody outside of Betsalem, really thinks anybody would take such call seriously. (i believe we can now declare the existence of the double standard without much dispute).

[The Magistrate]

14. There Are Going To Be A Lot Of 'Splinter Groups', Sir

Quite enough to bulk up to several base-ball bats, swung by the various leaderships at disliked skulls....

[pelsar]

15. and a postscript....

hamas went to one of the clans in the northern part of gaza to take away their weapons....(a good idea if one is to make "law and order")... a firefight ensued and i believe hamas withdrew.......

i doubt that settled anything

[Name removed]

17. Deleted message

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[breakaleg]

2. I feel as if I'm watching a train wreck in slow motion. nt

[Shaktimaan]

16. For once...

you and I are in agreement. This whole thing is so fucking sad.

[pelsar]

18. but a not a surprise.....

with an average age of 15 massive unemployment, a macho patriarical gun culture, that celebrates the killing of civilians, massive intolerance for "the other", civil rights a "non entity" (well only when israel is involved) and no tradition of democracy.....it was in fact expected by many.


how does it go?...be careful what you wish for...you might just get it