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But not everyone agrees that Hizballah's gains were worth the price paid by Lebanon. A few anti-Hizballah media outlets pointed out that the true cost of the prisoner swap should include destruction wrought by the July war: 1,200 people killed, 400,000 wounded, 1 million displaced and $15 billion in economic damage. Yet, after more than 18 months of internal political stuggles that culminated in a brief armed takeover of Beirut by Hizballah last May, the group has for now effectively ended all debate over its continued bearing of arms. It has secured a veto power in the Cabinet and a sympathetic new President who just announced that, from now on, Hizballah would become part of Lebanon's national defense strategy.
That strategy could backfire. By embracing Hizballah's right to bear arms, the Lebanese government is now defying the U.N. resolutions that require its disarmament. And, as destructive as it was, Israel's bombardment of Lebanon in 2006 was largely limited to Hizballah strongholds in the capital and in the south. But in any future confrontation, Israel may use less restraint — and another war could be Lebanon's last.
Hizballah seems determined to resolve the rest of its outstanding disagreements with Israel — for example, Shebba Farms and other territory still occupied by Israel but claimed by Lebanon — in a manner similar to how it settled the prisoner issue: guerrilla operations, followed by indirect negotiations. But Israel is now unlikely to make the same kind of deal with a group that sees every negotiation as a step on the road to "liberating" Jerusalem. In that light, the prisoner exchange on July 16 isn't a promising first step toward ending hostilities between Israel and Lebanon, but instead the opening of an unstable new phase in the Arab-Israeli conflict, in which there is no system in place to prevent small outbursts from turning into big wars.
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