Analysis: Gaza will not be Stalingrad

[bemildred]

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As of this writing, Hamas is trying to draw IDF forces into the cities of Gaza, and the IDF is trying to coax Hamas combatants out into the open. While Hamas is trying to pull the IDF in, the IDF currently has the time to decide where and what to strike. It's up to the IDF to decide which bait to take and which not.

But there is a question as to how long the forces can stay in their current static, defensive position, which leaves Hamas the initiative to bait the IDF. Once the IDF takes the initiative and attacks, it will force Hamas to "shape" its forces accordingly. The longer the IDF waits outside the cities the greater Hamas's power in shaping the battle.

There are several ways Hamas will try baiting the IDF into the urban areas. For one, it will attempt to kidnap soldiers, which would require rescue missions. Sniper fire is another form of bait, as the sources of fire have to be taken out. At present, snipers are being killed with anti-tank rockets and helicopter fire. But once they fire from civilian buildings inside an urban setting, these methods will become tricky.

Hamas will eventually fire mortars at troop concentrations outside the cities from within built-up areas and the IDF will then have to direct fire at the source of the sniper or mortar fire, which would ideally be done by tank, artillery, or helicopter, meaning from the outside.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1231167266913&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

[Capt_Nemo]

1. Of course Gaza will not be Stalingrad

It will be much more like Afghanistan or Iraq (If the IDF stays. If it decides just
to temporarily occupy Gaza, there will be no lasting favourable political outcome
for Israel - it is lose-lose either way).

But hey, as long as as Barak and Livni get their MISSION ACCOMPLISHED moment
for electoral purposes, everything's fine...

Anyway Jerusalem Post can keep whistling past the graveyard if it makes
them feel better...

[azurnoir]

2. So is it safe to assume that IDF is about to move into

Gaza city and is expecting a large number of civilian causalities? Sounds like it to me, human shields just never gets old does it pretty much 100% of the civilians killed in any conflict anywhere are being used as shields if it was the IDF doing the killing but turn it around and Israeli civilians are targeted 100% of the time.

[bemildred]

3. Well, I was interested in the fact that somebody thought the issue needed to be "explained".

I have been rigorously suppressing a desire to make that comparison for days, because my brain tells my it is not accurate.

[azurnoir]

5. Miy brain cells are on overload

I have seen it one or two too many times

edited to add
your right I was not being accurate about the human shields and first case that comes to mind is Fadel Shana the AP camera man who was killed by an IDF tank last spring it was said the tank crew took his camera to be an RPG so there is some variance

[4dsc]

4. Remembering Beirut...

Snipers took a toll on Israeli soldiers.. I once met a Palestinian with many kills under his belt attending a US university afterward.. I can only imagine how this story is going to play out..

[ProgressiveMuslim]

6. I am anxious to see if there is any validity to statements

made in the arabic press about what awaits...

[bemildred]

7. The basic problem is Gaza has no re-supply.

So eventually they will run out of stuff, and then it will be over. Assuming nothing intervenes. If the IDF tries to force the issue by entering the citie(s), it could get very messy until then, and nobody really knows, except Hamas maybe, how long that would take.

[Vegasaurus]

8. Sometimes wars have winners for that reason nt

[bemildred]

9. Always a pleasure when we can agree on something. nt

[azurnoir]

10. If there is any accuracy to this report

it sounds like entering cities is the plan of action

Israel shuns ceasefire plea as it prepares for street combat

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=124x239712

[bemildred]

11. "To stop is dangerous, to recede ruin."

These things quickly develop a momentum of their own, once some nitwit politician lets the dogs of war loose. There are only three things they can do:

1. Retreat -- "Lose"

2. Stop in place -- Bleed financially and politically, on and off the field, still have to decide what to do.

3. Continue on -- Put the decision off another day, maybe we'll get lucky

My guess is they will find some way to continue to "advance", and I would not be surprised if they really do advance.

[azurnoir]

12. Well I dunno if I'd call it advance............. n/t

[bemildred]

15. ANALYSIS / Israel's three alternatives for the future of the Gaza war

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In the efforts to reach an agreement, Israel will be faced with a number of alternatives: withdraw without an agreement, or adopt an option offered by the army to broaden the offensive against Hamas. The General Staff is convinced that the mission is doable, even though part of the brunt will be borne by reservist units that have never before participated in fighting of this kind in the Strip.

The question is now being as is whether such a move is necessary. A senior officer admitted Tuesday that the army's secondary objective was to restore the serious blow dealt to its self confidence after the 2006 loss of the Second Lebanon War. This has already been restored, he said.

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In the past two days, there has been a certain drop in the number of rocket attacks, with Hamas gunmen operating out of mosques and crowded neighborhoods. The IDF is taking many prisoners, some Hamas men, others suspected of assisting Hamas. The soldiers guarding them express some disappointment when faced with the boogeyman they have been preparing to fight for months.

But herein lies the Achilles' heel of the forces that are left in the field in a static situation, open to lethal attacks by Hamas.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1053590.html

[Xolodno]

13. They (IDF) are definately....

...playing a different song from their war in Lebanon against Hezbollah. The goals are the same, disarm and eradicate their opponents ability to wage war. But the execution is vastly different.

In Lebanon they went en-masse, and into the urban environment. Apparently Hamas thought they do the same thing. Instead the IDF is slicing up Gaza, almost as if they are looking to see which area they slice up has the most fight in it via a process of elimination.

Oh and yeah, the other Arab nations are going to "voice" their grievances and call Israel's actions war crimes. But they aren't going to to squat action wise. They don't want to see a "Hamas" in their own country tossing their government out, if Hamas is successful it gives fundamentalist in their own nation inspiration.

Hezbollah isn't going to do anything either, Iran is broke and can't finance another war. Syria wants the Golan Heights back and there have been gestures that Israel is willing to give it to them.

The negotiating by all nations and parties is just fluff and show. I'm guessing Hamas is getting an ultimatum, put down your arms, recognize Israel and then you will have legitimacy....or face extinction.

If Israel does pull out, it will because they think they may have caused enough collateral damage that once the people of Gaza are done with being angry with Israel, they may turn against Hamas as their living conditions will be even worse and realize they provoked this action. Wish I kept the link, but I remember a report somewhere that was a statement from Hamas how they apprehended some of their own people who were "in league with Israel". In other words, the people there may already be deciding they have had enough.

[tekisui]

14. Good map here: