ANALYSIS: Aluf Benn on the Netzarim attack

[bemildred]

The Palestinian gunmen's attack on Netzarim,
killing three soldiers, came at a bad time and
place for Israel, putting into question once again
the government's policy negating the evacuation of
settlements and a unilateral withdrawal.

Located in the heart of
Palestinian territory,
Netzarim is the most isolated
and controversial spot on
Israel's settlement map,
because of the large forces
required to protect it. The
Palestinian attack came when
the government is under
pressure for a political
initiative in response to the left's Geneva
Accord. The attack once again raises the
question, why such a settlement should be kept
and why should soldiers, including female
soldiers, risk their lives guarding it.

---

The political and security leadership is
struggling with a more difficult problem - how
to prevent the collapse of the Palestinian
Authority or what is left of it. The PA's
disappearance will lead to the resumption of
the military occupation of the territories and
to Israel's assuming full responsibility for
their population, an entanglement Israel has
managed to evade so far.

Sharon is evaluating the possible developments
in the PA. Israel hopes Ahmad Qureia's cabinet
survives and maintains power, but there are
many doubts as to its chances.

Haaretz

[madrchsod]

1. and the idf blew up

a large apartment building placing several thousands out in the street and into camps. also the idf destroyed a police station and shot two unarmed peace workers...death in the holy land.

[Gimel]

2. If that happens...

Without a working PA, Israel will be forced to reoccupy....

Then it really resembles Iraq.

[bemildred]

3. I found it interesting because I have read elsewhere

that the PNA was attacked by the IDF to "pressure it to
go after the terrorists". This seems to have backfired more
or less in the manner that one would expect it to backfire.

It's a fairly odd theory of operation in any case. Something
like it in, say Colombia, would be for the government to attack
FARC in the hopes it would destroy the ELN for them. Or in
Afghanistan, for the government to attack one of the warlords,
say in Kahndahar, in hopes that that would pressure him into
making war on the Taliban.

Usually when one attacks someone, the expected reaction is that
they will return fire at you, not some other fellow that you
dislike.

[Gimel]

4. PNA attack

Do you mean a military attack? I'm not sure I follow this. PNA = Palistinian Authority?

[bemildred]

5. PNA == Palestinian National Authority == PLO == Arafat & his minions

I mean the business of surrounding Ramallah and killing some
of Arafat's minions and destroying infrastructure and isolating
Arafat and witholding money and services and invasions and harassment
which the PNA is powerless to do anything much about, all of which
weakens the PNA both in material terms and politically. The fact
that the old fart is still "popular" isn't worth much if he has no
governing apparatus and gets little practical respect.

There seems to be a dawning awareness that he may not be around much
longer, and that there is no well-defined answer to what happens
when he is gone.

You must have a strong PNA that can govern effectively if you want
to be able to make some sort of peace deal with it. We have been
moving steadily away from that situation for the last three years
because the GOI is pissed off about the intifada. It's called shooting
yourself in the foot.

[Gimel]

6. That remains to be seen

You assume that after Arafat things get worse. I agree that Arafat is finished. As his image deflates, what will replace it? Will the PA, the legislature be able to fill the void? Will Arekat, Robo and the rest run free and open, democratic elections? One whould hope that the past would be a lesson. The future is yet to be seen.

[bemildred]

7. It certainly does.

I think it is folly to think that a strong, effective Palestinian
government will occur without active, patient, and generous Israeli
support, as well as the support and acceptance of some preponderance
of the Palestinian people. My point was just that we are far from
that situation at present.