After struggling through some difficulties early in its development process, the Arrow
has performed fairly well in its tests. However, the Arrow has never gone up against
an actual Scud. In September 2000, the Arrow successfully intercepted Rafael's Black
Sparrow missile, which was acting like a Scud and was launched from an F-15. A
second successful intercept occurred during the ninth flight test in August 2001. An
intercept test was to occur in July 2002 but has been delayed. Israeli officials are
hoping to have an Arrow flight test on U.S. territory by 2004 because it will allow them
to use longer-range target missiles. Right now, the primary Israeli test facility (the
Palmachim Test Range) is encroaching some of Tel Aviv's suburbs. In the meanwhile,
the Arrow's accuracy in war-time circumstances is uncertain.
The Arrow's intercept altitude is 40 kilometers to 100 kilometers, since it is planned to
provide terminal-phase missile defense, would intercept missiles at the end of their
trajectories. What this means is that if the AWS hits a warhead with a chemical or
biological fill, at best it could disperse the molecules fairly high in the atmosphere. At
worst, it could allow the chemical/biological agents to land in Israeli territory. In a Sept.
19 hearing by the Senate Armed Services Committee, under questioning by Sen. Ted
Kennedy, D-Mass., U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld admitted that the latter
scenario "is a possibility."
The AWS program has potential but has not shown that it can stand alone as a
defensive system. The other primary weapon that Israel might use against ballistic
missiles is not really much of help. Israel does have an earlier version of the PAC-3,
known as the PAC-2, but it is significantly less capable and evolved than the PAC-3
and is mostly geared toward an air defense mission. Besides, the PAC-2 was used to
practically no avail during the 1991 Gulf War against Iraq's Scuds. Later analysis by
Congress' General Accounting Office put the destruction rate at around 10 percent;
outside experts question whether any missiles at all were intercepted by the Patriots.
Israel is doing its citizens a great disservice by depending so heavily on a system
(like the Arrow) that has not been tested in realistic circumstances against actual
Scuds. If Israel's new blustery posture of reprisal is based on an unwarranted faith in
its ability to repel all missile attacks, then it also must be ready for the possibility that
some warheads or chemical/biological agents may get through.
http://www.cdi.org/missile-defense/arrow.cfm