Anyone who has been burned repeatedly in the past needs to be extra careful, but over the weekend it seemed that for the first time some optimism was justified. A genuine opportunity is out there, not only for a long-term cease-fire in the Gaza Strip, but also, according to a variety of sources linked to the talks, for a deal to free captured soldier Gilad Shalit.
The main obstacle to what sources have described as a "negotiated formula" remains Khaled Meshal and the Hamas politburo in Damascus.
Even though details remain unclear, it appears that the most significant change occurred in Hamas' "domestic" leadership. For the first time in weeks, senior figures of the organization, including Mahmoud al-Zahar, left the Strip to visit Cairo and then Damascus for talks. It seems they have reached the end of their tether, with Israeli military pressure and the economic siege on the Strip, accompanied by the constant threat on the lives of Hamas leaders. The Hamas leadership in Gaza is ready for a deal, one that will include the opening of the border crossings, an 18-month cease-fire, and probably an exchange of Shalit for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. A finalizing of the deal - there will be no signing of this "non-paper" - is still very much up to the Palestinian leadership. The head of Hamas' military wing, Ahmed Ja'abari, is likely to oppose it. But Meshal's opinion is even more important in light of his steady opposition to any progress in recent months.
Zahar is expected to make the view from Gaza clear to Meshal; a rejection of the Egyptian proposal will be seen as missing a historic opportunity to ensure Hamas' control over the Strip.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1062322.html