Shalit and Hamas: The deal that could bring down Abbas

[Turborama]

By Avi Issacharoff

Mon., February 09, 2009 Shvat 15, 5769

Concerned voices have been heard in the Muqata in Ramallah over the past few days: Senior Palestinian Authority and Fatah officials are speaking openly of the end of an era if an agreement to free abducted IDF soldier Gilad Shalit is reached. Palestinian officials say a Shalit deal would bring about early elections in the territories, and Hamas would win again - but this time it would win the Palestinian presidential election, too. Israel would then be forced to deal with a Hamas-controlled Palestinian Authority in both the West Bank and Gaza Strip, they say.

The latest poll from the Jerusalem Media and Communication Centre conducted n the territories shows the recent war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip afforded the Islamic organization unprecedented popularity. For the first time, Hamas is leading Fatah in the polls: 28.6 percent for Hamas compared to 27.9 percent for Fatah. Despite the euphoria in Israel over the Gaza operation, on the Palestinian side at least, some 46.7 percent view the Gaza fighting as a Hamas victory and only 9.8 percent deemed Israel the victor. Some 37.4 percent thought there was no winner.

The reports first published in Haaretz, that there was a breakthrough in the deal for Shalit's return, bode ill for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. The immediate significance of a Shalit agreement would be the assembly of the Palestinian parliament again, including all the Hamas representatives now sitting in Israeli prisons. This has Fatah concerned, as Hamas would apparently claim a large majority in the parliament and could therefore render Salam Fayyad's government illegal. Hamas could also pass a law stating Abbas' term had ended on January 9 and he now had to resign and hold new elections.

It is not at all clear if any or all of these events would transpire. Egypt, which is mediating the contacts to free Shalit, will try to receive guarantees from Hamas that it will not take such steps, but nothing can truly prevent the organization from making use of its majority in the parliament. Before the war in Gaza, Hamas did not seek early elections for either the parliament or the presidency as it feared it would lose power; however, after securing a Shalit deal and a "victory" against Israel in Gaza, it would expect increased support. Arab papers have mentioned Tanzim leader Marwan Barghouti as one of the prisoners who could be freed in the Shalit deal. However, even though Barghouti enjoys wide support among the Palestinian public, he would have a difficult time lashing out against those who secured his release. Such a move might provide Fatah with a future leader, but even Barghouti could not stop the wave of support for Hamas.

From: http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1062699.html

[GoesTo11]

1. So why is Israel doing this?

Do they want Hamas to take over the West Bank so they can deal with one party? So the Palestinians will fail? Is this Olmert's parting gift to Bibi? Are they really not thinking about this? I doubt it, but I can't figure it out.

[Idealism]

2. I think it is Olmert's "February Surprise" to let Livni beat out Bibi in a nail-biter

I am hoping it works out this way...

[bemildred]

3. Yeah, theoretically anyway.

That was my take, trying to get at least one of the goals of the recent carnage accomplished in time to help Zippy. I posted a story some days back to the effect that getting Shalit released was the one thing that could turn things around.

[GoesTo11]

4. If so, it may have the opposite effect

Olmert wants to brag about winning his war, just as he gives away any claim to have improved Israel's security after all the cost of going through it. If the only benefit of Cast Lead was to release Shalit in exchange for some very bad prisoners, I think that will not compel many people to pull the lever for Kadima, if anything it will help Netanyahu. Olmert is just all over the place like a wag-the-dog machine.

[bemildred]

5. Yes, indeed, who can say what the actual outcome might be?

So far it appears to me that the actual result is greater fragmentation of the electorate, but until people actually go and vote it's all hype.

[Vegasaurus]

8. Hamas in the west bank is a horrible nightmare

No one wants that (except Hamas and terrorist supporters).

[azurnoir]

9. Well the corrupt acts that have lead

to Olmerts downfall were committed while Olmert was a member of Likud to supposedly monetarily benefit Likud and Kadima has hardly come to his defense as were now have they? Olmerts party switch was a matter of political expediency rather than any ideological change

[bemildred]

6. Abbas ready to cooperate with any new Israeli government

WARSAW (AFP) – Palestinian Authority president Mahmud Abbas told journalists Monday in Warsaw he was ready to cooperate with any new Israeli government that emerges from Tuesday's general election.

But he said the Palestinians expected Israel to stop building new settlements in the occupied territories.

"I don't know who will win the elections, but we will cooperate with any new Israeli government emerging from the elections on the basis of the bilateral accords and the international resolutions which have been adopted up to this point," Abbas said at a joint press conference with Poland's President Lech Kaczynski.

"We also expect that the new Israeli government will stop installing new settlements. If the new government does not do this, I don't know what will become of the peace process," Abbas said in Arabic, speaking via an interpreter.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090209/wl_mideast_afp/mideastconflictelectionisraelpalestinian

[bemildred]

7. Hamas: no dialogue with Abbas before detainees released

GAZA, Feb. 9 (Xinhua) -- A senior leader of the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) said Monday it will not resume any dialogue with President Mahmoud Abbas' Palestinian National Authority (PNA) before the release of Hamas detainees in the West Bank.

Senior Hamas leader in the West Bank Ra'fat Nassif said his movement will not contribute to any dialogue before the release of its detainees and halt of what he termed as "the campaign of uprooting Hamas movement."

Hamas accused Abbas security forces of holding in their jails more than 600 Hamas prisoners, all of them arrested for political reasons. Abbas and other security officials denied, saying they were involved in criminal actions.

Hamas thwarted an internal Palestinian dialogue scheduled to be held in Cairo in November, insisting Abbas free Hamas detainees in the West Bank before starting any dialogue.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-02/09/content_10790246.htm