Exit polls: Livni's Kadima leads in 2009 elections

[oberliner]

Exit polls by Israel's three main television stations on Tuesday night showed Kadima as the leader in the 2009 general elections, with Likud coming a narrow second.

Channel 1, Channel 2 and Channel 10 polling of voters as they left the ballot box all pointed to victory for Kadima, headed by Tzipi Livni.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1063105.html

I take full credit for being the only person on DU who predicted this upset victory!

[thewiseguy]

1. What victory? Netanyahu will be the next PM

[oberliner]

2. Kadima wins - Livni will be PM

Netanyahu is screwed.

[thewiseguy]

4. You are in denial.

Lieberman has already indicated that he wants to form a bloc with Likud.

[oberliner]

8. Not relevant

Kadima got the most seats - they will be asked to form the government.

Livni will reach out to Labor and Likud to form a unity government.

Lieberman gets nothing.

[Junkdrawer]

15. Let's see....Assuming that Peres asks Livni first....

Bibi will say "Yes" knowing that if he says "No", Peres will ask him next and he has Lieberman (and thus a majority) in his pocket.

Yea, that'll happen.

[oberliner]

18. Bibi doesn't have a majority with Lieberman

They will be lucky to have 43 seats between the two of them, well short of what they would need to form a government.

[Junkdrawer]

24. Bibi and Lieberman are the top two in a 63-64 seat RW bloc...

...

If the exit polls are correct, the right-wing bloc, led by Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu, will comprise 63-64 seats, while the center-left bloc, headed by Livni, will take 56-57 seats. This means that a win in the polls does not necessarily mean that the next government will have a center-left bent.

...

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1063105.html

[oberliner]

27. Didn't Shas call Lieberman Satan?

The Right is not as united as it may appear.

[PM7nj]

5. It doesn't really work that way.

Livini will need to form a coalition of 61, I belive to become PM. Most likely she will not be able to do that since the right-wing is a pretty large block.

[oberliner]

7. It really does work that way

Kadima will lead a unity coalition of the Kadima, Likud, and Labor, which would total well over 61 seats.

[thewiseguy]

9. Kadima will lead a unity coalition of Kadima and Likud?

LOOOOOOOOOOOOOL

:rofl: :spray:

[oberliner]

10. Livni: Only Kadima can form unity government

Kadima Chairwoman and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni said during a visit to her party's headquarters in the central city of Petah Tikva that even if Kadima narrowly wins the elections, she would be the one to form the next government.

"The person who receives more Knesset seats is the one who received the public's trust, and no one will be able to argue with that. In fact, we will be the ones capable of forming the only unity government," Livni added.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3669714,00.html

[thewiseguy]

11. Thewiseguy: Livni is full of shit

[oberliner]

23. You sound like Netanyahu

He's saying exactly the same thing.

We shall see how it all shakes out.

[thewiseguy]

31. And you sound like someone who does not have a clue

[PM7nj]

12. Ha. I highly doubt that will happen.

I'll believe it when I see it.

[Junkdrawer]

3. Indeed. looks like Lieberman is the kingmaker...

...

The exit polls put Lieberman's Yisrael Beitenu Party in third place behind Kadima and Likud -- and ahead of Labor, the party that ruled Israel for decades. That gives Lieberman, who based his campaign on denying citizenship to Israeli Arabs he considers disloyal, a key role in coalition building. Livni would almost certainly not be able to form a government without his support.

Lieberman said his party's strong showing means he holds the key to forming the new Israeli government. He said he had spoken to both Livni and Netanyahui and told them he could be persuaded to join either one of them.

"It is up to Lieberman who will form the next coalition," said Menachem Hofnung, a professor of political science at Hebrew University. "Lieberman has emerged as the kingmaker. He is the winner of these elections and it depends on who he sides with over the next few weeks as to who will be prime minister."


...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/02/10/israeli-election-surprisi_n_165579.html

So, the next Prime Minister will be the one that promises to strip the most rights from Israeli Arabs? :shrug:

[oberliner]

6. Lieberman will be shut out

Kadima will lead a unity government, with no Lieberman involved.

[bemildred]

13. So the election polls seem to have been off the mark?

Thus totally supporting my position that all polls are crap.
:-)

The next couple weeks ought to be interesting.

[oberliner]

14. I can't even get a shout out from you?

For weeks I've been posting responses to people (I won't name names) who were claiming a Likud blowout and an inevitable Bibi victory. I've been saying they are wrong, that Likud is tanking, that Kadima is closing the gap, to keep hope alive.

No one seemed to take my lonely perspective too seriously but here we are!

No props?

[bemildred]

16. OK, props.

:thumbsup:

You will note, I hope, that I was not one of those people? OK, I think I did once indicate that I think things "seem to be" moving to the right, but I think I can still argue that. And I will freely admit I am surprised by Zippys showing here.

[oberliner]

19. Thanks - although I fear things might get ugly

As everyone tries to jockey for position in whatever coalition ends up being formed.

Personally, I prefer the American system to be honest.

[bemildred]

25. They all have their flaws, but I have to admit this seems a little disfunctional.

It does seem to me that things get very weird here in the US too. I generally don't like the "two-party system" we have here, but I have to admit that the hundred party system has its drawbacks too.

[GoesTo11]

17. TV Poll numbers

Center/Left

Kadima - 30 seats
Labor - 13
Raam - 3
Balad - 3
Hadash - 4
Meretz - 4

= 57

Right
Likud - 28
Israel Beitenu - 15
Shas - 9
United Torah - 5
Jewish Home - 4
National - 3

= 64

Even if Livni gets the first opportunity to try to form a coalition, she'll have to peel 4 votes away from the right - Shas possibly? Israel Beitenu will ask a very high price, so I doubt they would join. Likud? Only if they thought they'd be on the outside anyway, i.e., if Kadima already had a viable coalition. Kadima can't form a coalition, then Netanyahu has a pretty easy path of it. If Likud gets first crack at it (possible) then I think it will be a right-wing coalition. Only possibility is that Israel Beitenu gets so greedy that Likud would rather give up what they have to to get Kadima to join instead of Beitenu, but then Netanyahu would still be in the driver's seat.

[oberliner]

20. Unity coaltion led by Kadima = 71 seats

I think that is what we will see - no Lieberman.

[GoesTo11]

22. Hope you're right.

But I'm not sure what they'll have to do to get Likud to agree. Making a governing coalition in Israelis like making sausage (kosher sausage?).

NY Times article seems to indicate that a Likud/Kadima/Labor coalition is possible but more likely with Likud leading it.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/11/world/middleeast/11israel.html?hp

Who knows?

[oberliner]

28. Here's what Livni has said

Kadima chairwoman Tzipi Livni said she too would seek to form a unity government if elected. "After I am elected, I will immediately turn to two parties - Likud and Labor - and invite them to join the center," she said. "This I promise. On this basis we can add more parties that will go along Kadima's path."

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1062812.html

[Mosby]

21. You called it oberliner

congrats.

I've been reading about a possible kadima, labor, likud coalition, I like it since it leaves out utj, beitenu and shas. I also like Barak as defense minister, I hope he keeps his portfolio. I wonder where all gil's votes went, any idea? pretty disappointing result for hadash.

[oberliner]

26. Thanks - I think Gil was a flash in the pan

Sort of the protest vote of the moment, and that moment has passed.

I think we will either see the Kadima-led unity government (with no Lieberman or UTJ or Shas) or perhaps a Kadima-led left coalition with the smaller Left parties plus Shas (and no Likud).

[Mosby]

29. If I recall right Livni made some strong stmts against Shas

during her attempt to form a coalition after Olmert stepped down.

[oberliner]

30. Yes, I do think that is the less likely scenario

It will be very interesting to see how this all shakes out.

Livni has now already publicly asked Likud to join a unity government led by Kadima.

[Emit]

32. One of Netanyahu's folks told Sean Hannity that it is 100% certain that Bibi is the new Prime

Minister of Israel. Hannity is so pleased - said he is glad Bibi won because Bibi will now be the moral authority in the world, since Obama doesn't even recognize the 'war on terrorism' and the three proxy wars Iran is waging now ... or something like that. *sigh*

[Donald Ian Rankin]

33. Don't count your chickens. It still looks very possibly Netanyahu will be the next PM.

You may well be right, but I wouldn't assume it just yet.

And even if Livni wins, she'll be dependant on Lieberman.

[oberliner]

34. Yeah, I'm not thrilled by what I've been hearing

Still - the idea that Likud would get less mandates than Kadima was unthinkable just a few weeks ago.

[thewiseguy]

35. Actually that is not a done deal. The military votes are still to be counted.

That could give Likud more mandates.

[oberliner]

36. Final election results: Kadima 28, Likud 27, Yisrael Beiteinu 15

Members of Israel's central elections committee said on Thursday the apportionment of Knesset seats would remain as is following the final tally of Israel Defense Forces soldiers' ballots.

Kadima led by Tzipi Livni captured the largest number of Knesset seats - 28 - edging the Likud's 27 seats. Yisrael Beiteinu made history on Tuesday, becoming the third-largest party in the Knesset with 15 seats. The Labor Party finished with a disappointing 13 seats; Shas with 11; United Torah Judaism won six seats; the National Union captured 4; United Arab List - Ta'al - 4; Hadash - 4; Meretz - 3; Balad - 3; and Bayit Hayehudi ("The Jewish Home") - 3.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1063744.html

[azurnoir]

37. Well the final outcome depends on how this all

coalesces or how "pure" the right wing wants to keep itself the right wing without Kadima still has about 66 seats or a majority