Israel's horse-trading begins (BBC News)

[IndianaGreen]

Israel's horse-trading begins

By Paul Wood
BBC News, Tel Aviv

Horse-trading

The voting, along with Israel's constitution, has in fact, opened the way to many possible combinations of a new Israeli governing coalition. Some of these are:

• A centre-left coalition of Kadima and Labour plus any combination of Shas, Yisrael Beitenu and Meretz. These parties have been in government together before - and it was not a happy experience for them

• A grand coalition or Kadima, Labour and Likud. This may the outcome the electorate wanted but it is unlikely given the clashing egos of those involved. For the same reason, there probably will not be a "rotating government" with Kadima and Likud getting two years each to lead. Who would go first?

• A right-wing coalition of Likud, Yisrael Betainu and Shas, which does not include either Kadima or Labour. This may be the final outcome and it seems to be the one Mr Netanyahu is aiming for. He told the Likud gathering he would reach out to the national parties later in the day

There may well be weeks of tortuous negotiations ahead to form a coalition capable of governing. Let the horse-trading begin!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7882731.stm

[Ken Burch]

1. Well, one thing we do know:

All of those possible governments are going to work to prevent any real peace settlement.

In the end, the Israeli political leadership still haven't given up on getting ALL of the West Bank and Gaza.

It's all down to taking land for the sake of taking land. Nothing else is really important in that country anymore.

Whatever else there was died in this election.

[iconicgnom]

2. I wouldn't want to trade on those kind of horses. n/t

[oberliner]

5. Which political party in Israel would you support? nt

[Alamuti Lotus]

3. x

[oberliner]

4. Hadash beat Meretz

May have sounded their death knell.

The only side more disorganized than the Right in Israel is the Left in Israel.

[bemildred]

6. Israel's age of fragmentation

These elections leave Israel well-nigh ungovernable, fragmented and paralysed. The Knesset will be composed of 12 parties, none of which have crossed the threshold of one-quarter of the seats. These results adequately reflect the state of Israeli society. The Israeli electorate is in a state of deep confusion and desperation and Israel is moving into a bunker mentality. The election campaign was primarily based on the expression and mobilisation of fear, and there was hardly any message of hope. What is difficult to understand from the outside is the extent to which Israel is today primarily driven by annihilation anxiety, and such anxiety generally leads to a freeze and makes innovative, bold and creative steps impossible.

The reason for this is that most Israelis simply don't see a way towards peace. The second intifada, and the rocket volleys from the Gaza Strip since Israel's unilateral withdrawal have enormously strengthened the right, which has won a majority of Knesset seats. Netanyahu's mantra for a long time has been:

If we lose military control over the territories, they will turn into terror bases; they will arm themselves with rockets and make life in Israel impossible. We have made that mistake in Gaza; if we make it with the West Bank, the rockets will shut down Ben Gurion Airport, and they will reach Tel Aviv.

Events in Gaza, unfortunately, have proven him right, and the threat of a nuclear Iran looms over all Israelis. As a result the rightwing bloc has more than half the seats, which means that the peace process is unlikely to proceed.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/feb/11/israeli-elections-2009-israelandthepalestinians1

[GoesTo11]

14. These elections leave Israel well-nigh ungovernable, fragmented and paralysed???

Where have you been for the last 35 years? If it weren't all of those things, it wouldn't be Israel.

[bemildred]

16. You do know I didn't write that? nt

[GoesTo11]

17. Just a little joke.

[LeftishBrit]

18. Good point!

I sometimes respond to the conspiracy theories that 'the Israeli government runs America/ Britain/ the world' with 'That would be slightly more convincing if the Israeli government were even able to run Israel!'

[bemildred]

7. Netanyahu: Better for America, Better For Israel

n the end, it does not matter all that much that Bibi Netanyahu is going to be Israel's next prime minister. I don't see much (if any) real differences between him and Ehud Barak or Tzipi Livni. In fact, in my opinion, it is Barak more than anyone else who is responsible for demise of the Oslo process. (For the facts on that, see Clayton Swisher's "The Truth About Camp David," a brilliant expose by a young ex-Marine who was there).

I also am taken by an analysis by Yossi Beilin, who was Oslo's architect. He says that it is better to have a pure right wing government than a right wing government covered by a centrist fig leaf. He says that, in the past, the worst Israeli governments have been national unity hybrids. The right goes about its business building new settlements and thwarting the peace process while the "left" (i.e., Shimon Peres, in his day) puts a pretty face on it.

Remember how Jimmy Carter handled Menachem Begin? Or how the first George Bush not only used our foreign aid as leverage against Yitzhak Shamir but engineered his replacement by Yitzhak Rabin? Barak, on the other hand, ran rings around us. President Clinton recalls that Barak treated America as if Israel was the superpower and he, Clinton, was a "goddam wooden Indian" whose job was to shut up and listen).

Beilin also believes that the United States will come down a lot harder on a right wing government than on one that appears centrist. It will be easier for President Obama to deal with Netanyahu than with the almost equally hawkish Livni because the latter seems dedicated to ending the conflict. In fact, her views on some of the critical issues are at least as hard line as Netanyahu's. But her seeming moderation is a nice cover.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mj-rosenberg/netanyahu-better-for-amer_b_165894.html

[Jefferson23]

11. Sad but true, but perhaps that is because I am so cynical about each of these

individuals. I can't imagine there is going to be any moves toward a peace process with substance to it without a very bold move by Obama.

[Thrill]

13. Dennis Ross disagrees. He thinks Netanyahu is the reason Clinton couldn't get a deal

done.

[GoesTo11]

15. Wouldn't it be surprising if Bibi wins the Peace Prize some day?

If Begin could do it, it'd be a cinch for Netanyahu. Actually, I can't tell to what extent he believes everything he says, and to what extent he talks tough to impress Israeli voters and to what extent he talks tough because he thinks it will improve Israel's bargaining positions. Maybe some of all three. But say whatever else you want about him, he is a very smart man. Not my choice, but he may yet be capable of some good surprises if he becomes PM, especially if he and Obama forge a relationship.

[Junkdrawer]

8. Consider this: The most likely outcome is a RW coalition with Likud the most liberal member...

If that doesn't give you nightmares....

The job of Israeli apologist is about to get much, much harder.

[LeftishBrit]

9. That would be a nightmare, but I don't think it's the most likely option

Kadima has got more seats than Likud. And the far-RW parties are eating each other at the moment (the religious-right attacking the xenophobic-right for its secularism).

The most likely scenario is either a continution of something like they had before (Kadima in coalition with Labour and some smaller parties) or a unity government. I'm not mad on either, as my preferred option would be a Meretz/Hadash/Labour coalition (or even Meretz/Hadash without the Labour!) but that's not going to happen! However, either of the likely possibilities, even the unity government, would be a whole lot better than the nighmare scenario.

'The job of Israeli apologist is about to get much, much harder.'

Much more importantly the life of an Israeli (especially an Israeli Arab) and of a Palestinian would get much, much harder. But the chances are it WON'T happen. It's the equivalent of the prediction that McCain and Palin would win the American election and McCain would then die in office - certainly a nightmare scenario that COULD have happened; but didn't; and I don't think this will either.

[Junkdrawer]

10. Everything depends on who Peres asks first....

If it's Bibi, goodnight...

If it's Livni, the RW would have to block for 4 - 6 weeks and the pressure for a "Unity" government would be tremendous. And even then either Bibi or Lieberman would have a huge amount of influence.

[azurnoir]

12. Unfortunately that harder life for Israeli Arabs and Palestinians

is what it may well take at this point to accomplish any move towards a true solution
, the well things are bad but......... they could be worse so often used is the very reason and way Israel has gotten around actually having to do anything except pay lip service towards a Palestinian state for so long