Defense establishment: Iran No.1 threat to Israel

[Scurrilous]

IDF chief presents defense minister with military's work plan for 2009, says Tehran near-nuclear capabilities, existing ballistic aptitude and terror contacts pose 'existential threat' to Israel

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3672331,00.html

<snip>

"The defense establishment has recently declared, for the first time in years, that the State of Israel is under an "existential threat."

The Israeli Defense Forces' annual work plan for 2009 officially defines Iran as "a threat to Israel's existence," with all that implies from it - training, equipment and preparation-wise.

In the outline of the plan, presented to Defense Minister Ehud Barak, IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant-General Gabi Ashkenazi defines the Iranian peril as "the No.1 threat the IDF is now preparing for."

The threat, which consists of Tehran's nearly-obtained nuclear capabilities, existing ballistic aptitude and proven emissary-fighting, in the form of funding Hamas, Hizbullah and other terror groups, clouds all of the military's other plans for the work year."

[Idealism]

1. The same people who told us that Hamas poses an 'existential threat' to Israel?

http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/5783">Does Israeli Intelligence Lie?

[oberliner]

2. Who said that? nt

[Idealism]

3. The Defense sector

I would suggest reading that article and the Ha'aretz story it links to, very telling.

[oberliner]

4. In neither case does anyone from Israel call Hamas an "existential threat"

I may have missed it - can you point to that citation?

[Idealism]

5. Here is a few reports on the matter

Hamas not a dialogue partner
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3539115,00.html

Guest Columnist: Hamas pursuing war plan to 'obliterate' Israel
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/opinion/395702_israelproonline13.html

Islamic state? Not yet
http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2008/09/01/rfa-milewski.html

Ever since its bloody takeover of Gaza in June 2007, Hamas has seemed to be an existential threat to Israel, ruling a new, Islamic state with its sword at the throat of the Jews.


I have heard several Israeli politicians claiming similar statements, that Hamas constitutes a mortal, national, and/or existential threat. It was being pushed for awhile to justify Cast Lead

[henank]

6. Your comments are off topic

The OP is about Iran being an existential threat. No one has been claiming that hamas is an existential threat to Israel.

Furthermore no Israeli politician or soldier claimed this in order to justify Cast Lead. The operation needed no justification, being a self-defense operation.

[Idealism]

7. Your comments are quite amusing, thanks

[oberliner]

8. Do you think a conflict between Israel and Iran is imminent?

Where do you see things going there?

[Idealism]

10. War is in neither country's benefit

Iran has elections in June, and with oil prices way below what is needed to sustain Mahmoud's latest economic investment plan (this part was of the "share the wealth" variety) and new US, UN, and EU sanctions imposed against Iran due in part to Ahmadinejad's indifference and defiance towards the Bush administration- I see a tough race ahead for him.

Due to these sanctions, inflation and unemployment are very high. This has left Ahmadinejad unpopular at home, and a few weeks ago former President Mohammad Khatami, known as the "moderate" in Iranian politics, threw his hat into the election ring and will run against Ahmadinejad and Mehdi Karroubi (a center-right reformist conservative cleric).

That being said, the President of Iran has no say in defense issues and is not the commander in chief. The Supreme Leader controls most of the agenda for the country, with the President being a figurehead that answers to the people and sets domestic policy. Khamenei's word is binding under Islamic law, and his condemnation of nuclear weapons is strongly worded.

http://web.archive.org/web/20051016053118/http://www.irna.ir/en/news/view/line-17/0508104135124631.htm

Whether you believe him or not, is another case. The 2006 National Intelligence Estimate done by CIA officials did conclude that Iran closed off the avenue of nuclear enrichment with regards to weaponry in 2003 and has not since committed new efforts of rejuvenating the process.

I think the next Israeli government has enough on the table to deal with, and if they need to gin up some approval ratings and choose violence to do so, they need not look further than Hamas again. It is always popular with the country to do so, whereas Iran could turn into a Vietnam-like PR failure, to say the least!

I don't think that anything will happen with Israel and Iran militarily speaking. Any land invasion would have to cross through Jordan or Syria unless it was an amphibious landing, and I don't see either country allowing such a thing. An amphibious assault with heavy air support would be the only way I could ever see war between Israel and Iran going down, but there will not be Washington backing on such an endeavor under the Obama administration. That last fact alone means that it is not going to happen.

[oberliner]

11. What about something like Iraq, 1981

Do you envision Israel taking action similar to the bombing of Osirak?

If not, what do you think Netanyahu is going for with all the rhetoric?

[Idealism]

12. I recall reading a news article a short while back

saying how Iran had overhauled their nuclear reactors to make them more resistant to bunker busting bombs, in case of an attack from the U.S. or Israel I assume. I don't know if these reactors are buried so far underground that even the new GBU-39 cannot reach them, but they have also made significant moves towards acquiring a Russian missile defense shield, in addition to building several airfields and military bases along the north and western most borders (closest to Israel).

Here is an article detailing their missile defense system:
http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2008/me_iran0472_08_27.asp

Bibi is doing what he does and that is play politics. The more people he can scare into giving him power, the better the country will be- in his mind's eye. I don't think anything will come of the Israel-Iran debate, especially if they elect Khatami as the next President of Iran. But, that doesn't stop the US military aid flowing into the Israeli economy, bolstering their military-industrial complex, which in turns bolsters Bibi's pockets I am sure.

[azurnoir]

9. I doubt Israel is going to attack Iran

the claim of "existential threat" is propaganda aimed at getting support for such a venture at a time when the "support" ie the Obama administration is making diplomatic efforts with Iran

[IndianaGreen]

13. More bullshit from the militarists to keep people frightened and submissive

As long as you scare the pants off of your citizenry, the less time they have to think about the social and economic problems they are enduring while the military sucks off resources.

This worked in America since the phony Cold War, so why not Israel?