Jumblatt (Druze leader) supports Hezbollah

[shaayecanaan]

\"Lebanon’s Druze leader Walid Jumblatt said on Friday his group would support Hezbollah ahead of parliamentary talks on Monday to pick a new prime minister.

Jumblatt’s support is likely to give the Hezbollah and its allies, with 57 seats in parliament, the majority to endorse Sunni politician Omar Karami to form a new government which might exclude caretaker Prime Minister Saad Al Hariri.\"


http://www.siasat.com/english/news/jumblatt-supports-hezbollah?page=0%2C1

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=2&article_id=124006


Report: U.S. to end Lebanon aid if Hezbollah takes control

\"The United States will stop aiding Lebanon if Hezbollah seizes power in the country, the pan-Arab newspaper Asharq al-Awsat quoted a U.S. official as saying Sunday.

Late last year, two top U.S. lawmakers attempted to hold up $100 million that was approved for Lebanon\'s army but not yet spent, saying they wanted to make sure neither funds nor arms meant for the Lebanese army would reach Hezbollah.\"

http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/report-u-s-to-end-lebanon-aid-if-hezbollah-takes-control-1.338662

[bemildred]

1. I would be interested in your views on this.

Jumblatt is an excellent weathervane, you can tell which way the wind is blowing. The main thing I draw from this is a continuing loss of "western" influence, and a continuing increase in the influence of "local powers".

But the long-running soap opera of the "imminent" report and indictments and so on leaves me thinking it's all bullshit, and then Nasrallah throwing a tantrum over it makes me think there is something to it, and I get all confused. Not that long ago Hariri and Nasrallah were getting along swell.

[azurnoir]

2. well last I read the indictments were in but it would take 2 or 3 months

before it was released, as it had to be reviewed by Judge Daniel Fransen

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12182326

as to Hariri Jr from what I had read he was supposedly to protest the tribunals findings along with Nassrallah but seemed to change his mind? is that true or as near to true as it gets, in this?

[bemildred]

3. Nasrallah says Shiites not seeking to block other parties

The report and indictments have been "imminent" for 2 or 3 years now? What sort of "imminent" is it that goes on for years? I assumed it was being used as a threat to apply some sort of pressure on Hezbollah. I am somewhat surprised that Hezbollah takes the "threat" seriously, or wants to appear to take it seriously. Here is what Nasrallah had to say today:

Beirut(dpa)- The head of the Lebanese Shiite movement Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah said Sunday that his opposition coalition movement is not seeking to eliminate any other political group in Lebanon.

The comments came in a speech on the eve of parliamentary consultations by the Lebanese President Michel Suleiman to appoint a new prime minister.

'We in the coalition will request that the new premier, yet to be named, forms a national-unity cabinet in which everyone participates.'

'We are not calling for a cabinet that excludes any party in Lebanon,' Nasrallah said in a televised speech.

http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/middleeast/news/article_1613914.php/Nasrallah-says-Shiites-not-seeking-to-block-other-parties

[shaayecanaan]

4. Well, its a case of asking yourself: how bad can it get?

If the government remains in power, and the STL continues along its course, it can get plenty bad, at least if the government attempts to enforce the decisions of the Tribunal. Hariri has co-operated with the STL from the start, and he's going to find it hard to climb down from his tree now without looking like a total wuss.

On the other hand, if the opposition is in power then it avoids the possibility of a military response by Hezbollah to any indictments - it is hard, after all, to riot against yourself. And Hezbollah are pretty good at keeping the peace. Not as good as Syria, of course, but I suppose that Jumblatt is worried that if civil hostilities break out again, the return of pax Syriana may be very well on the cards. And he'd much rather have Hezbollah to deal with than Syria.

Its worth noting that Hezbollah arent heavyweights in an electoral sense. They control 13 out of a total of 57 seats in the opposition, which is led by Aoun and his Free Patriotic Movement. If they're lucky they might get 3 cabinet posts. And whether they are in government or not does not really affect their strength as a paramilitary force.

And of course, Jumblatt still controls his ten seats. If March 8 make a hash of it he can always return to the cross benches. Maybe March 14 will be prepared by then to toss Hariri.

The only real negative of a March 14 led government is the inevitable cooling of relations with Western governments, but that is only a comparatively small negative. The Western powers were already so fitful in their support of the Lebanese government that the absence of said support will make very little difference.

[bemildred]

5. Thank you. nt

[Alamuti Lotus]

6. Nasrallah and Hariri were getting along ok,

only after the salafist wing of Hariri Inc got spanked in Beirut a couple years back. I think Hariri was counting on his very pro-Bin Laden Saudi-inspired friends to keep Sayyid Nasrallah in check; when that failed, he knew they needed to play nice.

Now the salafists based in Tripoli are again going nuts about these new turns of events; I believe the pro-bin Laden/war criminal MP Khalid Dahir and Zarqawi recruiter Sheikh Khalil al-Mays are calling it a "day of rage", as their followers block streets, set cars and various other things on fire, and shoot at passers-by. Both are loyal members of the "pro-West" Hariri Inc movement. The same people went apeshit when small groups of Hizbu'llah men quietly and peacefully gathered in the streets a few days ago. Go figure.

[Alamuti Lotus]

7. Instead of Karrami, they went with Nijab Miqati (the "compromise" candidate)

Billionaire telecom mogul, but at least didn't make his money in Saudi Arabia. And if I've read correctly, has been known to refuse Saudi money on a number of occasions -- perhaps that's what the fuss is about. Interestingly, we won his seat running on Hariri's ticket in the last election, and the latter is still throwing a fit.

[shaayecanaan]

8. The old saying, he may be a bastard, but he's our bastard

contra the Palestinians, who look like they may be stuck with someone else's bastards for quite some time to come.

[oberliner]

9. Protests erupt across Lebanon over attempts to sideline Hariri

BEIRUT: Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s Future Movement called for a day of rage throughout Lebanon Tuesday after sporadic demonstrations to protest attempts to sideline Hariri erupted Monday.

“We say from Tripoli, the capital of Lebanese Sunnis, and the capital of openness, coexistence and national unity, that tomorrow is a day of rage in all Lebanon and a day for general strike in condemnation of meddling in the affairs of Lebanon and Sunni Lebanese,” said Tripoli MP Mohammad Kabbara Monday, during a news conference held in Tripoli after a meeting for the Future Movement in North Lebanon.

“Insulting the Sunni sect … is unacceptable,” Kabbara added.

Tripoli MP Najib Mikati, who is supported by the Hezbollah-led March 8 coalition, is certain to become prime minister designate after he was nominated by 58 MPs in the first day of parliamentary consultations carried out by President Michel Sleiman.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=2&article_id=124107#axzz1C2pPD1c3

[Alamuti Lotus]

10. Nobody sidelined these children except themselves

The childish mobs are stealing the racist sectarian rhetoric from al-Qa'idah in Iraq, all because their posterchild spoiled son of a brat refuses to share power without him in supreme command. These salafists (dangerous extremists) are focusing so much on Hizbu'llah ("party of the devil", in their terms), forgetting the fact that Sayyid Nasrallah's coalition now includes or has the support of the vast majority of Shiites, now the Druze, a majority of Maronite Christians, Greek Orthodox Christians, Syrian nationalists, Palestinian resistance factions, and even their candidate is (formerly) a member of Hariri's own party.

After today's voting, Miqati now has a very strong majority of 68 MPs, over mini-Hariri's 60.

[azurnoir]

11. thank you

your post comes as close to answering some questions that I have as any, the first being what do the Lebanese or at least the majority want here?

I really do not know much about this and what I do comes from Western outlets, and I do not always believe that they are 'fair and balanced' in ME affairs

eta I did also wonder if there was any significance in the fact that the 'toppling' of Hariri's government came while he was in DC

[oberliner]

17. Childish mobs?

Interesting characterization.

[Alamuti Lotus]

20. Pro-Hariri demonstrations descend into lawlessness

BEIRUT: Future Movement supporters responded to an MP’s call for Tuesday to be a “day of rage,” hitting the streets to express their backing for caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri, as rival MP Najib Mikati was nominated for the premiership.

The Lebanese Red Cross announced that 51 people were injured throughout during the protests across the country. A security source said 32 of the casualties were from the Lebanese Army.

Mikati was nominated by a majority of 68 MPs, the bulk of whom were from the Hezbollah-led March 8 coalition, while 60 lawmakers nominated Hariri.

In the northern city of Tripoli, Hariri supporters gathered in Al-Nour square and angry crowds torched a satellite news vehicle owned by Al-Jazeera TV station.

In another incident in the city, the army rescued a number of journalists from demonstrators trapped inside a building containing an office of M.P. Mohammad Safadi.

Protestors attempted to burn Safadi’s office and break into an the headquarters of an organization owned by Mikati, before the army intervened and dispersed those gathered. Safadi was among the MPs who nominated Mikati. Both officials are from Tripoli.

There were several incidents of assaults on journalists by demonstrators. Roads were also blocked in Akkar and other northern areas.

Read more: http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=2&article_id=124151#ixzz1C7bm2Ras

[oberliner]

23. Hariri calls on protestors to remain peaceful and support democracy

“I consider it my duty to announce my total rejection of all form of riots and lawlessness which accompanied the popular movements and unfortunately tarnished the noble national goals of these movements,” Hariri said.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=1&article_id=124144#ixzz1C8fwMtwU

[azurnoir]

12. Lebanon's Hariri denounces violence by supporters

Outgoing Lebanese premier Saad Hariri denounced on Tuesday violent incidents that erupted during protests by his supporters against the appointment of a Hezbollah-backed candidate to head the new government.

Demonstrators in Sunni Muslim stronghold Tripoli attacked and burned a car of Al-Jazeera television, and ransacked the office of a rival MP.

In a televised speech, Hariri thanked "every free citizen ... who has denounced the attempts of hegemony over our national decisions."

<snip>

The appointment as premier of Hezbollah-backed Najib Mikati has angered many Lebanese, including Sunnis. They see it as an attempt by the Shiite party to impose its will on Lebanon, which has been plunged into political turmoil over a UN probe into the murder of Hariri's father.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hrNlYMt5bdjcWGwmvaqfucBUhKJA?docId=CNG.95111380dfbe35f8a08d6124c5e915e8.6e1

so Hariri's party calls for a 'Day of Rage' and Hariri cries foul when it becomes just that? Seems almost I dunno choreographed

[bemildred]

13. In Lebanon, violence breaks out as new prime minister is named

Reporting from Beirut — Violence engulfed parts of Lebanon on Tuesday after the appointment of a Hezbollah-backed candidate to the office of prime minister.

Najib Mikati, a Sunni Muslim telecommunications tycoon, was confirmed as prime minister in the early afternoon, replacing Saad Hariri, recognized as the leader of the country's Sunni community.

The crisis reflects a deepening political conflict concerning a United Nations-backed tribunal examining the 2005 assassination of Hariri's father, Rafik Hariri. The court is expected to accuse members of Hezbollah of the killing. The Shiite Muslim militant group and its allies used parliamentary maneuvers to replace Hariri after he refused to distance the government from the tribunal.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/middleeast/la-fg-lebanon-violence-20110126,0,7275590.story

[shaayecanaan]

14. Theres a typo in that article:-

"Washington staunchly backs Hariri."

They misspelled "sometimes".

[bemildred]

15. Heh.

The culmination of years, perhaps decades, of failed policy towards Lebanon.

I don't expect Hariri wants to get in a real fight. He appears to have - perhaps intentionally - overplayed his hand.

[azurnoir]

16. thanks

the more I read about this, the more I wonder if something more than just the UN tribunal is at work here, but your article at least pointed out that Najib Mikati is a Sunni, most others just say "Hezbollah backed" and leave it at that

[bemildred]

18. Yes, I agree, I don't think this is really about the tribunal.

I still remember Hariri's visit to Damascus, and I am doubtful that he would really misjudge his position here in the way that he seems to have. The tribunal is a pretext or a precipitating cause. I think Hariri is in an awkward position, and is trying to extricate himself.

Hariri's visit to Damascus ends years of bitterness between Lebanon, Syria:
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-12/21/content_12679174.htm

[Alamuti Lotus]

22. Hafez never really cared for Hizbu'llah before, the Lesser all-but-hates Nasrallah now

Historical revisionism has virtually erased the fact that Rafiq Hariri was a useful agent of Syria up until about a week after his death, then his supporters suddenly noticed how awful they actually were and made their power-play.

US/France/Saudi Arabia clearly were not going to back mini-Hariri and his salafist base as strongly as the Islamic Republic would Hizbu'llah in case of any actual conflict, so going to Syria for leverage against Sayyid Nasrallah makes sense..during and after the civil war, Assad-squared preferred to use Amal as their Shiite proxies: more easily bought with hard cash and not so burdened by bothersome principles.

[Alamuti Lotus]

21. Rather than Sayyid Nasrallah (lightning rod), it appears Aoun was the hardliner..

about "sidelining" mini-Hariri and his pals:

Cooperation with Hariri leadership not possible, Aoun says

BEIRUT: The leader of the Free Patriotic Movement reiterated Sunday the “impossibility” of cooperating with any government headed by caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri.

“We are not targeting the Sunni sect … but we cannot offend Lebanon’s interests and its citizens by forcing Saad Hariri as prime minister,” Aoun said. “I was one of the most qualified candidates for president but the Sunni sect said that they wouldn’t accept me so I decided to step back and not nominate myself.”

I don’t think Hariri will come back because there cannot be a prime minister that is indicted,” said Aoun referring to allegedly documented corruption.

This had helped push Lebanon to the brink of economic collapse, Aoun said, while promising to revamp the economy and shrink the national debt.

The FPM leader also vowed to end cooperation with the Special Tribunal for Lebanon which “gave up on its responsibilities when it disregarded the issue of false witnesses.”

“We think vehemently that if the false witnesses files are they will lead us to the right criminal,” said Aoun. “Secondly there are people involved in false testimony and not only Mohammad Zuheir al-Siddiq, but Saad Hariri, the candidate for premiership.”

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=2&article_id=124064#axzz1C7aPsl9n

[oberliner]

19. March 14 vows to stand strong in face of Hezbollah 'coup'

BEIRUT: Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s coalition accused Hezbollah Monday of staging a coup against the Lebanese state in a bid to impose an Iranian agenda on Lebanon.

As President Michel Sleiman concluded the first day of binding parliamentary consultations to name a new prime minister, lawmakers from the Future Movement and the Lebanese Forces condemned the nomination of Tripoli MP Najib Mikati as a violation of Lebanon’s national coexistence pact.

Mikati, a wealthy businessman and former consensus premier who ran the June 2009 parliamentary elections on Hariri’s electoral list in Tripoli, is expected to gain a majority at the end of the two-day parliamentary consultations Tuesday. Protests broke out across Lebanon to contest his nomination.

Future Movement loyalists and officials described Mikati’s nomination for prime minister as unrepresentative of the Sunni community. The post is reserved for a Sunni according to Lebanon’s unwritten convention, which Hariri’s supporters said Hezbollah was seeking to dominate.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=2&article_id=124108#ixzz1C4GYcXHF

[azurnoir]

24. Calm returns to Lebanon after days of protests over Hezbollah power play

Lebanon security officials reopened all roads and removed barriers across the country, after thousands of Sunnis poured into the streets to protest against the new prime minister chosen by Hezbollah and its allies.

Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati is set to begin the process of forming a new Cabinet and is scheduled to visit former premiers later Wednesday.

Hezbollah and its allies ousted the Western-backed government two weeks ago by quitting the Cabinet.

Mikati, a billionaire businessman, has called for a unity government.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/calm-returns-to-lebanon-after-days-of-protests-over-hezbollah-power-play-1.339314

[oberliner]

25. Lebanon faction urges sit-ins against Hezbollah

BEIRUT (AP) — Lebanon's Western-backed coalition called on supporters Wednesday to hold daily sit-ins in downtown Beirut to protest the growing power of the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah.

The Shiite group and its allies toppled Lebanon's government two weeks ago and secured enough support in parliament to name their own pick for prime minister Tuesday. Opponents of Hezbollah say having an Iranian proxy at the helm of Lebanon's government would be disastrous and lead to international isolation.

Fares Soeid, a senior official with the Western-backed coalition known as March 14, said the country is becoming entirely beholden to Hezbollah. He called on Lebanese to gather peacefully every evening, holding Lebanese flags, at Martyrs Square in downtown Beirut.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5i5kA---nO9Ow-GgRut3TZ-3WLxQQ?docId=6c9e54293e5b465f925524137feea419

[azurnoir]

26. New Lebanon PM Mikati says he's committed to US ties

The billionaire chosen by Hizbullah to become prime minister of Lebanon told the US ambassador Thursday that he is committed to having good ties with Washington.


Najib Mikati met with US Ambassador Maura Connelly days after Washington warned that the formation of a government dominated by the guerrilla group would mean changes in relations with Lebanon.


The 55-year-old telecom tycoon "confirmed during the meeting the importance of bilateral relations between Beirut and Washington," he said in a statement as he began the process of forming a new government.


The Shi'ite group and its allies toppled Lebanon's Western-backed government two weeks ago and secured enough support in parliament to name Mikati as their pick for prime minister Tuesday.


http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=205511