Minister: Mubarak regime will prevail in Egypt, despite protests

[Scurrilous]

Egyptian security apparatus will use required force to retain control, says a minister in the Netanyahu government who insists on maintaining anonymity.

<snip>

"Israel expects the Egyptian government to weather the protests roiling the country and to remain in power, an Israeli Cabinet minister said Thursday, providing Israel's first official assessment of the crisis affecting its powerful southern neighbor.

The minister said that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, backed by his powerful security forces, was strong enough to overcome the unrest, though he did not rule out the possibility of further violence.

"His regime is well-rooted in the military and security apparatus," the minister said. "They will have to exercise force, power in the street and do it. But they are strong enough according to my assessment to overcome it."

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/minister-mubarak-regime-will-prevail-in-egypt-despite-protests-1.339571

[Submariner]

1. It appears to me that even if he survives in office

he and his family and relatives will not be able to move around Cairo or the rest of Egypt with any sense of being safe. Maybe after 30 years of Mubarak, they need a change. Imagine 30 years of GW Bush.

[Ken Burch]

2. Great..."The Only Democratcy In the Middle East(more or less)" wants to stop any MORE democracy

from happening in the Middle East. OUR tax dollars at work, too.

[oberliner]

4. What would you like to see happen in Egypt exactly?

How would you like to see things play out there?

[Ken Burch]

6. I'd like to see the emergence of a secular(or at least religious-pluralist)Egyptian government

With multiple parties, including multiple secular parties(at this point all secular parties are banned other than Mubarak's "party"), and the creation of a more social democratic economic model for the place.

I'd like an independent or at least semi-independent press, an end to torture, and no secret police.

In short, I'd like to see happen in Egypt what I'd like to see happen in most of the world.

NONE of that can ever happen if Mubarak hangs on. The longer he stays, the greater the odds that people will decide, as they were essentially forced to decide in Iran, to ally themselves with the Muslim fundamentalists as the only possible way to get rid of the existing regime.

There is no civic society in Mubarak's Egypt, and no space within Mubarak's system for anything better to develop. His order can't just slowly evolve into a democracy, the way some here pretend.

[oberliner]

7. That would be great

Assuming Mubrarak leaves and/or steps down, how likely is the probablity of a secular Egyptian government emerging in your opinion?

[Ken Burch]

9. Much greater than if he stays.

There's no way that keeping Mubarak in power could possibly lead to a democratic transformation-any more than keeping the Shah in power in 1979 could have caused that to happen in Iran.

[oberliner]

14. I guess we shall see how it unfolds

I hope you are right.

[shira]

29. Ken, you're wrong. Chances are if Mubarak is deposed, worse will follow - just like Iran 1979.

Based on a recent Pew poll:
http://pewglobal.org/2010/12/02/muslims-around-the-world-divided-on-hamas-and-hezbollah/

In Egypt, 30 percent like Hizballah (66 percent don’t). 49 percent are favorable toward Hamas (48 percent are negative); and 20 percent smile (72 percent frown) at al-Qaida. Roughly speaking, one-fifth of Egyptians applaud the most extreme Islamist terrorist group, while around one-third back revolutionary Islamists abroad. This doesn’t tell us what proportion of Egyptians want an Islamist government at home, but it is an indicator.


In Egypt, 82 percent want stoning for those who commit adultery; 77 percent would like to see whippings and hands cut off for robbery; and 84 percent favor the death penalty for any Muslim who changes his religion.

Asked if they supported “modernizers” or “Islamists” only 27 percent said modernizers while 59 percent said Islamists:

http://rubinreports.blogspot.com/2011/01/interview-on-egyptian-revolt-im-worried.html

[azurnoir]

31. so if you can be honest what would you say Israel had a right to do

in the event of an Islamic Brotherhood takeover in Egypt something you claim the Egyptian people want?

do you think Israel would be justified in reoccupying Sinai, Gaza or both?

[shira]

36. Honest?

:eyes:

IMHO, if Egypt goes to war against Israel with the MB in control, Israel needs to do whatever it takes to defend such a tiny country. A big war now with the weapons Egypt has is a very scary thought.

Also, I didn't claim Egyptians want the Muslim Brotherhood in power, only that recent PEW polling surveyed whether Egyptians preferred "modernizers" or "Islamists". Result was, Islamists: 59%; Modernizers: 27%. That doesn't translate into majority support for the Brotherhood, but it's not good news either.

If Egypt is taken over by the Brotherhood and declares a religious war on Israel, what do YOU believe Israel should do?

[azurnoir]

37. what if the Muslim Brotherhood does not declare war on Israel but is part of the

new Egyptian government? Then what?

[Ken Burch]

32. So you want to stay under a police state.

You do realize that, even if those statistics are true, keeping Mubarak in power couldn't possible lead to a softening of such attitudes, don't you?

Israel can't tie its hopes to tyrants.

[shira]

35. Nope. I wish the secularists stood a fighting chance against the extremists, but they don't.

The chances of secularists taking over and remaining in power there are almost 0%, but you think "revolution" is a chance worth taking anyway - even when chances are good Mubarak would be replaced by much worse?

Really?

Things are bad now in Egypt. I don't believe cheerleading for what likely would be far worse is a good idea.

[frankieT]

38. worse for who ?

Worse for zionists ? I'm no islamist sympathizer but i admire the courage of the egyptian people. NO ONE has the right to choose for them their government. STOP with your horrible imperialist propaganda.

[shira]

40. You don't have a problem with Egyptians choosing an Islamist government...

....that oppresses Egyptian women and minorities, enforces sharia law.....?

What about the millions of Egyptians who'd rather not live under such conditions? Or children, who have little choice but to do so?

[frankieT]

41. Oh yeah how cute of you

To consider the suffering of egyptians. Please stop the BS, you and your government actively supported the brutal dictatorship for 3 decades and now you're talking of the well being and the freedom of the people ? Give me a break.
What kind of regime egyptians choose is a moot point (except for fierce zionists).
The western hypocrisy is exposed : better to see a corrupt dictatorship torturing its own people but working toward our intersts and being cool with the societal values of the modern world (you know sexual freedom & all) than an honest conservative backward regime that will be not so cool with us (or more precisely that we'll find not so cool).

[azurnoir]

3. I hate to say good but it is better than the destabilization of Egypt

which IMO would come at a very heavy price

[oberliner]

5. Thank you for having the courage to post this nt

[shaayecanaan]

11. Bollocks to you for not having the courage to post it yourself -nt-

[oberliner]

13. I don't know enough about the situation in Egypt to make a statement like that

At this point I am still asking questions and trying to get as informed as I can.

[Alamuti Lotus]

10. keeping the status quo is a very heavy price!

thinking so is not courageous, but foolish.

[azurnoir]

12. the current status quo will not last much longer

if for no other reason than Hosni is 83

[oberliner]

18. Hosni's age is irrelevant to whether or not the status quo will last

The Assad/Assad transition maintained the status quo in Syria.

[azurnoir]

19. that is quite unclear of the 2 sons Alaa and Gamal

the more likely to succeed Hosni is Gamal who is currently cowering in London, the other son Alaa does not seem too interested.
Egypt is mot Syria and Hosni's death would allow a more natural transition of power and government

[oberliner]

20. Gamal is not "currently cowering in London" - he has not left Egypt

You might want to check your sources of information a bit more carefully.

[azurnoir]

21. Mubarak’s Son Flees Egypt to London as Egypt Protests Continue for 3rd Day

It has been reported that Egyptian President Mubarak's son, Gamal Mubarak, has fled Egypt with his family to London on Tuesday as the country bracing for huge demonstrations planned for Friday.

Quoting a US-based Arab website, Akhbar al-Arab, the Wall Street Journal reported that Gamal Mubarak who is considered as his successor, has fled to Britain along with his family.

The plane with Gamal Mubarak, his wife and daughter on board left for London Tuesday from an airport in western Cairo.

http://tripolipost.com/articledetail.asp?c=1&i=5377



but perhaps you have other info as I could never hope have to news feeds as well 'tweaked' as yours

[oberliner]

22. This is the problem with the internet

Rumors become cited on websites like this as facts.

[Alamuti Lotus]

8. the revolutionaries in al-Qahirah and Suez will be glad to know that Pharoah has Israel's support

[oberliner]

17. What steps have been taken to bring attention to this despotic regime before now?

There seems to have been no BDS movement or anything similar - in spite of the fact that Egypt receives billions of dollars in aid from the US.

Certainly nothing to the extent of the organized movement in the West with respect to Israel. The amount of aid given to the Egyptian regime has been quite high.

The voices of protest against it have been quite low - until now.

Why is that?

[Ken Burch]

33. People have been anti-Mubarak for years.

You don't get to turn this into "it's antisemitism" because antisemitism isn't a part of this, and was NEVER a part of the BDS movement regarding Israel's treatment of the Palestinians.

[oberliner]

34. No mention whatsoever of antisemitism

None made, none implied, none remotely considered. And no reason for you to introduce that topic into the discussion when it was not brought up in any way, shape, or form.

To the point at hand, certainly you do not believe that there has been a similar degree of pressure exerted on the Mubarak regime from people in the West as there has been on Israel over the last say ten years or so. Do you?

People in the US seem to be only now just waking up to what Mubarak has been doing all along. Even those who are relatively active in the progressive community seemed not to have the boycotting or protesting of this regime particularly high on the agenda.

In light of the fact that US taxpayers have contributed billions of dollars to Egypt in aid over the years, it seems a bit strange that there have not been such strong voices of protest in recent decades.

[shaayecanaan]

15. Unfortunately, this is probably the case...

although personally, I would like to see all of the ruling members of the NDP up against the wall.

There is something about hearing the screams of people being tortured from police stations of a quiet Sunday afternoon (something you hear in Syria as well) that makes one think ill of a government.

[oberliner]

16. You seem to be calling for the execution/murder of dozens (hundreds?) of people

Is that what you mean by seeing them "up against the wall" or is there another interpretation of that phrase?

[ProgressiveMuslim]

23. Bibi can dream... but sadly for Likudniks, Mubarak is DONE!

[azurnoir]

24. are you so very sure that is what Bibi is dreaming of?

I for one am not

[ProgressiveMuslim]

25. Do I think Israel benefits from having surrounding Arab countries under perpetual control of US

backed puppets?

Um. yes!

[azurnoir]

26. but there are other considerations here

Egypt would be greatly weakened by being cut off from US backing which could very well happen in the event of a coup

[whosinpower]

27. I am not so sure about that

I read somewhere that most of the aid is military and all of it must be purchased from american companies - so really...most of the aid, in terms of dollars just props up the american military industrial complex to give Egypt arms.

Egypt's army would suffer from material goods and products. I am not so sure that would be "greatly weakened" perse' as a nation.

I suppose the real danger would be if the new government, facing aid being cut off from the US - would court Iran instead. That might be a real possibility, that I daresay, the americans would not be at all happy about. The US should not forget EVER, that they are not the only game in town. If they leave a void - someone will fill it.

I think it would be horribly shortsighted of them to fall into a kneejerk reaction of cutting aid if Mubarek falls. I think the best option for the americans it to wait and see and encourage Mubarek to listen to the people - reform and announce his retirement. The longer he digs in, it seems to me, the more violent it will become. He is 83 years old after all. Instead of a messy, ugly, unstable revolution - he has already announced he is dissolving the current government. I think he should announce a timeline for an organized democratic election and that he will not be running. Give the people the voice they are demanding.

[azurnoir]

28. Hosni appears willing to sacrifice everyone in his government

well everyone except himself of course and he has even names a vice President too but the Egyptian people seem unimpressed, it's Mubarak they want gone

as to the US, Obama's speech yesterday was a masterpiece of non-commitment. on the surface he appears to support the protesters but really not that much, he's leaving it open to interpretation and waiting to see how the dice fall here, if in the end Egypt winds up with leaders that the US can or will not support and the US cuts them off, they will not have to "court" Iran, Iran will be on their doorstep, in fact it would not surprise me if Iran isn't already selecting 'roses' for the bouquet

[whosinpower]

30. That would not surprise me either

Iran comes a courting....so to speak.

Somewhere, deep down, I hear the headless body of Saddam Hussein laughing and laughing....

[Catherina]

39. Could someone contact this minister for an update please? n/t