Hezbollah Is In Trouble

[oberliner]

CAIRO, Egypt -- During the six turbulent years since Rafik Hariri was blown up on the Beirut waterfront, supporters of the outspoken billionaire former prime minister longed for the day that his killers would face justice.

But the indictments submitted this week by the UN-mandated Special Tribunal for Lebanon hit with more splutter than splash. In the short term, Hezbollah will face minimal fallout from the charges against two of its officials, which the Tribunal named as ringleaders in the assassination.

The more serious threats to Hezbollah's primacy in the long run lie elsewhere. The first comes from the Tribunal, which will exert leverage over Lebanon not by the suspects it indicts but by the strength of the case it presents. The second and perhaps more important challenge to Hezbollah stems from the radical political changes sweeping the Arab world, which threaten its Syrian government sponsors in Damascus, and have put Hezbollah in the position of siding with authoritarian dictators in the era of the Arab spring.

First, consider the indictments. Leaks from the tribunal have made clear for years that Hezbollah operatives would be charged with the Hariri killing, and have even detailed much of the evidence, including mobile phone records that allegedly place a Hezbollah hit team around Hariri all the way to the moment of his death.

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/07/hezbollah-is-in-trouble/241362/

[Alamuti Lotus]

1. wishful thinking, along the lines of other nonsense being bandied about ATM

[bemildred]

2. Interesting argument, but I'm not buying it.

Hezbollah is as vulerable to change as any political organization, but it is a long way from the sort of Islamo-stalinism which is the focus of the Arab Spring. The Arab Spring may well weaken islamic resistance movements, by creating alternatives, but it is most unlikely to see them as the problem which must be removed, any time soon.

[oberliner]

3. Nasrallah refuses to hand over accused

BEIRUT: Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah has rejected a U.N.-backed court’s indictment implicating four party members in the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, vowing never to turn over the four suspects – a move that is likely to embarrass the new government which has promised to respect international obligations.

Read more: http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2011/Jul-04/Nasrallah-refuses-to-hand-over-accused.ashx#ixzz1R97PL726
(The Daily Star :: Lebanon News :: http://www.dailystar.com.lb)

[bemildred]

4. Gee, who could have predicted this? nt

[oberliner]

5. Where does it go from here?

Do you not anticipate escalating tensions?

[bemildred]

6. I expect continuing back and forth babble, threats, accusations, etc.

Otherwise, nothing much, as far as the Hariri business. The accusers will not stop accusing and the accused will not stop denying. Eventually everybody will get bored and some new "crisis" will come along or be invented.

[oberliner]

7. How about a collapse of the government? A no confidence vote?

Check out this article:

Lebanon political unity close to breaking point

Lebanon’s fragile political unity was close to collapse on Monday after the opposition demanded the prime minister support a United Nations tribunal into the killing of a former premier or step down.

Opposition politicians said they would vote against Najib Mikati, the prime minister, in a routine confidence vote on Tuesday unless he defied his political backer Hizbollah, the militant Shia armed movement, and supported the investigation into the 2005 murder of Rafiq Hariri.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0cb6babe-a63b-11e0-8eef-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1R9fN7QyI

[bemildred]

8. Come, come, you've been watching this for a long time now, just like me.

Even were it to come to pass as described, it has already been shown that Lebanon does not need to have a central government. "Political unity" in Lebanon is a political stalking horse like the "Peace process" in I/P, it is not what it purports to be. Noise and threats in the news media are the tools of the trade. The overt meaning is not related to fact. Bringing down the government might well be a major purpose of the Tribunal report, explaining why it was decided to "leak" some of it's content now.

[Alamuti Lotus]

12. it goes nowhere...

the temperament of Saudi Arabian princes dictates how boldly Hariri the Lesser can act in such a situation as this; unfortunately for them, their hands are tied at the moment with a dozen fires to put out already (counting their losing factions in Egypt, Yemen, the Gulf, etc), so expect mostly sound and fury (if that). The salafist militants under Mustaqbal's aegis were already roundly spanked once when they tried to act against Hizbu'llah on their own, they will not be so eager to meet their maker for a second round of utter futility. Aside from their rampant schadenfreude about Syria, nobody even around Hariri the Lesser wants a fight over this or anything else right now.

[shaayecanaan]

13. The same place the investigation into Elie Hobeika's death went...

Precisely nowhere. All sorts of people kill all sorts of people for all sorts of reasons in Lebanon.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2002/jan/25/israelandthepalestinians.warcrimes

[oberliner]

14. Hariri was the Prime Minister though

Is your "all sorts of people kill all sorts of people for all sorts of reasons in Lebanon" maxim something that can be extended to the country's prime minister?

[shaayecanaan]

15. Apparently so...

Timeline: Assassination History of Lebanon since 2000:- http://terrorism.about.com/od/originshistory/tp/Lebanon-Assassination-Timeline.htm

January 24, 2002: Elie Hobeika
Hobeika was a fomer Christian Lebanese Forces commander and a parliamentarian with a pro-Syrian bent at the time of his assassination. However, he had been identified by Israel as playing a leading role in the 1982 massacre of Palestinians in two Lebanese refugee camps, during Israel's Lebanese invasion. Hoebeika's agreement in 2002 to speak at a trial Palestinians were bringing against Israel for the massacre gave rise to speculation he may have been assassinated by Israel.

May 20, 2002: Mohammed Jihad Jibril
Jibril was the head of of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command (PFLP-GC) in Lebanon was killed by a car bomb. Israel was thought to be behind the explosion, but denied any responsibility

August 2, 2003: Ali Hussein Salah
Salah was a Hezballah member and driver working for the Iranian embassy, when he was killed. According to Zvi Bar'el, a journalist for Israeli newspaper, Ha'aretz, the object of attack was a senior Hezballah member who was supposed to be in the car at the time, but was not.

July 19, 2004: Ghaleb Awali
Hezballah member Awali was killed by a bomb exploded outside his home in Beirut. In Hezballah head Hassan Nasrallah's eulogy he praised Awali as a "martyr of Palestine," making it clear that Awali had worked on behalf of activities or operations by Palestinian groups. A Sunni group, Jund al Sham (Soldiers of greater Syria), claimed responsibility for the assassination, but Hezballah pointed the finger at Israel.

February 14, 2005: Rafiq Hariri
The Sunni anti-Syrian former prime minister was killed by a massive car bomb that killed about 15 other people. The most prominent suspect in the murder has been Syria but it has also been argued that Syria had little to benefit from provoking anti-Syrian sentiment. A U.N. tribunal was scheduled in 2006 to investigate Syria's potential role in the assassination.

June 2, 2005: Samir Qassir
Hawi, a longtime leader of the Lebanese Communist party and lifelong activist on behalf of Lebanese autonomy and the Palestinian cause, was killed along with his driver by a bomb placed under his car. He was opposed to Syrian interference in Lebanese affairs, but also well known for his thoughtful and dialogic approach to political issues.

December 12, 2005: Gibran Tueni
Tueni was the publisher of Lebanese daily newspaper an-Nahar and a member of Parliament when he was killed by a car bomb in 2005. He was well-known for his 2000 "Open Letter" to Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, in which he criticized Syrian interference.

May 26, 2006: Mahmud Majzoub
Majzoub, the leader of Islamic Jihad in Lebanon, was assassinated along with his brother, Nidal, by a car bomb. Majzoub was also known as Abu Hamza. Lebanese authorities accused the Israeli Mossad of the attack.

[oberliner]

16. Not sure I see the point of this

Are you suggesting that because of these other incidents that there will not be any major fallout from what is happening now with Hariri?

From what I am reading, since he was a former PM, this seems like it has the potential for some more significant outcomes.

[shaayecanaan]

18. Re

Are you suggesting that because of these other incidents that there will not be any major fallout from what is happening now with Hariri?

Yes. Since 2009, there have been no further political assassinations and the atmosphere generally has been a lot calmer than in previous years. I think the overwhelming desire for most Lebanese is to see that situation continue for as long as possible.

[oberliner]

19. Parliament to turn into a battleground

BEIRUT: Parliament will turn into a political battleground Tuesday, as rival March 14 and 8 camps face off over the disputed Special Tribunal for Lebanon, which is investigating former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s assassination.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2011/Jul-05/Parliament-to-turn-into-a-battleground.ashx#axzz1R97DJFmK

[shaayecanaan]

20. The Daily Star is half-owned by Saad Hariri (nt)

[oberliner]

21. What is a good and reliable source for news in Lebanon?

In English, if possible, but if not, just any names/links would be helpful.

[shaayecanaan]

22. An-Nahar and al-Akbar are the two main newspapers...

they're both halfway decent rags. Both in Arabic though. They are also a bit delicate in their coverage owing to the fact that journalists from both papers have been targeted for assassination over the years. I honestly think that al-Jazeera is probably the best English language source even if it doesnt always have a lot on Lebanon.

[oberliner]

23. Thanks

Based on Google Translate those papers also do seem to be reporting on what is going on with this commission as pretty serious.

[aranthus]

17. Agreed.

Hezbollah is more of a popular movement.

[bemildred]

9. Lebanon opposition urges PM to back UN Hariri court

BEIRUT — Lebanon's opposition has demanded Prime Minister Najib Mikati announce his full support for a UN-backed court charging Hezbollah members in ex-premier Rafiq Hariri's murder, ahead of a vote of confidence.

"We demand the prime minister announce openly and clearly his commitment (to the tribunal) before parliament on Tuesday and say that he will take all necessary steps to abide by its decisions, or get out, he and his government," said a statement read by MP Fuad Siniora, himself a former premier and leading member of the pro-Western opposition.

Three days of parliamentary talks begin on Tuesday, ending with a vote of confidence on Mikati's government in which Hezbollah and its allies control the majority of seats, including the key telecommunications and justice ministries.

The alliance led by the Iranian- and Syrian-backed militant group also holds a slight majority in parliament.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jMzy_iHgG90uZENl9f5ERhFMxKTg?docId=CNG.af29a41eca1e4ad2ba4ea4f694697e6f.41

[bemildred]

10. Lebanon indictments unleash claims of betrayal

BEIRUT (AP) — The son of assassinated Prime Minister Rafik Hariri accused Lebanon's new premier Monday of bowing to pressure from Hezbollah, which is refusing to turn over four members indicted by a U.N.-backed tribunal for the truck bombing that killed the Lebanese statesman in 2005.

Prime Minister Najib Mikati fired back, suggesting Saad Hariri — himself a former prime minister — was trying to exploit his father's death for political gain and tear apart the country.

The implication of the Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah in one of Lebanon's most stunning crimes threatens to bring a new and violent crisis in this Arab nation on Israel's northern border. The Shiite militant group denies any role in the killing and vows never to turn over any of its members.

But the pro-Western bloc, led by Saad Hariri, said in a statement that Hezbollah is holding the country hostage by making it choose between justice and stability. Hezbollah — the dominant player in Lebanon's new government — commands an arsenal that far outweighs that of the national army.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gx9GnX7OMIdhKI9lITwDA3kNKPJQ?docId=7b996e29938e42aea45fa2de81cde2f1

[bemildred]

11. U.N. prosecutor calls on Hezbollah to co-operate in Hariri case

(Reuters) - The prosecutor at the U.N.-backed tribunal seeking the killers of Lebanon's former prime minister Rafik al-Hariri asked Hezbollah's leader on Monday to offer material that could assist the investigation.

"The prosecutor welcomes Mr Nasrallah's offer to provide the file that he stated he has on some elements of the investigation and requests the video material that was shown on television during his televised statement," Prosecutor of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon Daniel Bellemare said in a statement.

The prosecutor also asked for any other information and documents that would assist the tribunal.

Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah gave a televised speech on Saturday rebuking the U.N. tribunal. The prosecutor said in his statement he would not engage in a public debate in the media about the credibility of his investigation.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/04/lebanon-tribunal-idUSWEB834420110704

[bemildred]

24. Lebanon lawmakers approve Hezbollah-backed government

The Hezbollah-backed Lebanese government of Prime Minister Najib Mikati won Thursday a parliamentary vote of confidence after three days of heated debate.

Lebanon's new government won the votes of 68 lawmakers in the 128-seat parliament.
Parliamentarians loyal to former prime minister Saad Hariri of the Western-backed coalition walked out of the chamber as the voting began.

The three-day deliberations in parliament saw heated exchanges between the Hezbollah-led lawmakers and allies of Hariri, whose government was toppled by the group and its allies in January over a dispute regarding the United Nations tribunal into the 2005 killing of his father, former premier Rafik Hariri.

Hariri was killed on February 14, 2005 in a massive bomb blast in a seaside area of Beirut.
Hariri's allies during their speeches in parliament said the new cabinet was a result of a "coup against democracy."

http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/lebanon-lawmakers-approve-hezbollah-backed-government-1.371975

[bemildred]

25. Lebanon to cooperate with Hariri tribunal

Lebanon's prime minister has vowed to cooperate with a United Nations-backed court charging Hezbollah operatives over the assassination of the country's former leader, Rafik Hariri, six years ago.

In 2005 a massive truck bomb killed the former prime minister and 22 others. It remains one of the most shocking assassinations seen in the Middle East.

Suspicion over the bombing has long fallen on Hezbollah, the powerful shiite militia.

Last week a UN tribunal formally named four Hezbollah members as the prime suspects.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/07/08/3264138.htm?section=world