Hamas, Fatah agree no Gaza demos over UN bid

[oberliner]

GAZA CITY, Palestinian Territories — The Islamist Hamas ruling the Gaza Strip and its secular rival Fatah agreed on Monday not to stage demonstrations in the enclave over the Palestinians' UN demand for statehood.

"They (Fatah and Hamas) have agreed to cancel any action or demonstration supporting or denouncing the recourse by Abu Mazen (Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas) to the United Nations," a Hamas official said in a statement.

"In accordance with the reconciliation agreement and efforts to bring an end to division, Fatah and Hamas have agreed to unify their positions in Gaza in order to avoid any action which might divide us again," it added.

The statement also warned that the Hamas authorities "will forbid any demonstration supporting the Abu Mazen initiative," after a Fatah chief in Gaza Saturday called for peaceful demonstrations there before the UN statement bid.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iaRxhvUUL4K85WYIUOdFYFUbnoWg?docId=CNG.793f5410a59f79f4a62496672fab41ab.591

[bemildred]

1. Interesting. nt

[oberliner]

2. I think this could be the end of Hamas as a governing entity

I think that whatever happens with this bid, that Fatah and Abbas will see their support rise and there will be pressure for overdue elections to finally occur.

My thought is that these elections will end in a landslide for Fatah and Hamas will then have to make a choice about what they want to be and what role if any they wish to serve in future governing coalitions.

[bemildred]

3. Yeah, I think that's in the cards if Abbas gets something he can call a "win".

Although the rejectionists will not all go down without a fight, and Abbas is an old guy and as as mortal as anybody. But nobody else has produced much of late, so if Abbas pulls this off, he is going to get a big political boost, which, given the illegitimacy of his current perch, he really needs, and it will certainly make Hamas and the rejectionists look bad, because they say Abbas is just a tool. I can say that I myself am surprised to see him doing this, I didn't think he had it in him.

The thing about the OP is it shows the people inside Gaza are more supportive of Abbas initiative than Haniyeh and the people comfortably stationed on the outside.

This could work out well, it's possible, if Abbas gets his state and Bibi gets the boot and better cooperation ensues between the two governments, things could improve, but it's going to be a struggle, there are lots of rejectionists on both sides, angry, dogmatic, and feeling like victims, and they like the chaos just fine, just the way it is.

[Violet_Crumble]

4. Isn't it looking likely Abbas will walk away with a 'win' one way or the other?

It won't be in the Security Council, but he's looking assured of getting the required votes in the General Assembly to make Palestine a non-member state observer...

[oberliner]

6. I think so

My question is - what is Hamas's next move? Will there be a push for reconciliation? Will there be new elections? Or would Hamas prefer to return to its previous position, outside of any governing role and serving more as a "resistance organization" than a coalition partner?

[hack89]

11. I vote for "resistance organization" - it's in their DNA

they can't help it. The idea a RW religious fundamentalist group is going to make rational decisions that serve the best interest of the people is laughable. Our teabaggers aren't capable of that - why should we expect Hamas to do it?

[oberliner]

15. Sad but true

They may in fact be more dangerous outside the government than in. Who knows.

[Violet_Crumble]

12. If the SC application is mothballed, does that delay the GA vote?

I'm suspecting what will happen is the Security Council will delay a vote for a few months and just let it sit on the backburner. It'd be a shame if that held up recognition in the General Assembly...

My guess with Hamas is that they may react by strengthening their hold on Gaza, and hold power there as long as they can and then retire back into their previous lifestyle...

[oberliner]

14. Is it an either/or proposition?

I am not sure. Can he go to both UN bodies?

[Violet_Crumble]

16. If it fails in the SC, they'll go to the General Assembly...

...but if the SC delays their vote, I'm not sure if that would also delay a General Assembly vote...

[bemildred]

8. I think so, though I am reluctant to be dogmatic about it.

I agree with Oberliner that a veto in the UNSC is not a lock. This is a very awkward situation for the USA, at a very awkward time, and whatever the USA does it is going to piss off people who we REALLY need to not be pissed off. Also, given the transparency of the failure of US' global hegemony at this point, the keystone of US foreign policy since the fall of the USSR, the public humiliation and isolation at the UN is going to be hard to bear and hard to explain away. We have very serious legitimacy problems here too, and we are internally very divided, and there is a lot of anger floating around.

And I agree with you that this situation would not exist without Bibi, but I think one must give Barak a lot of "credit" too. Between them and Jabba and Olmert you have almost the entire debacle from the killing of Rabin to the present. Israel should and would be at peace NOW if it had stuck to and kept its obligations under the Oslo agreements, in particular if it had not continued to colonize the West Bank.

[Violet_Crumble]

13. The fading of the US as a global hegemon...

It looks to be a slow but steady decline right now, and they seem to have some diplomatic clout left in reserve, which would probably vanish swiftly if a more economically healthy power like the EU or China stepped up and threw some weight around. One of these days, and it could be a few years off yet, the US will be busy trying to bully, bribe or cajole other countries to do its bidding and they'll turn around and tell it to bugger off...

[bemildred]

17. We are still very "big".

And you are quite right that nobody else really wants the job. Imperial delusions destroy empires, it's not like the old days when everybody wanted to be Roman or thought the Pax Brittanica was a good deal for all.

Nevertheless, it is quite clear that attitudes towards the USA and it's views are much less "attentive" than they once were and the Globe is now littered with our loudmouth opponents who are making political hay out of opposing us and our policies.

[oberliner]

18. The EU is an economically healthy power?

I don't know about that.

[oberliner]

5. Surveys generally show Fatah polling higher in Gaza than the West Bank

That's one of the more interesting points I've noticed. If you look at polls (PSR, JMCC) that ask Palestinians to assess the two parties, Fatah often gets higher marks in Gaza than it does in the West Bank.

[bemildred]

9. Yes. It's not like Hamas has been a big success. They have survived, that's all.

To answer your question, I think Hamas will split, there will be conflict, and one hopes eventually the Palestinians will get united under the PNA, or as united as any nation ever really is. The absence of Dahlan has been a big plus I think.

[hack89]

10. And Hamas will simply ignore the call for elections like before

These are fundamentally UN-democratic groups in a region where authoritarian regimes are the rule and not the exception. Hamas is a RW religiously fundamentalist party with a long history of violence and with no history of respecting elections and civil rights. The PA is simply corrupt and despotic.

[azurnoir]

7. good deal Hamas knows its days may well be numbered

however no matter how 'nice' they may act right now it reminds of a song at least the title

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHLnv--a9kA

sorry it's not something I usually do