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Report: UN vote on Palestinian statehood might be delayed for weeks

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Jefferson23 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-20-11 12:42 PM
Original message
Report: UN vote on Palestinian statehood might be delayed for weeks
Sources say a 'silent agreement' exists among Western powers to act to postpone the Security Council vote.
By Shlomo Shamir

The upcoming United Nations votes on a Palestinian state are expected to be postponed to an unspecified date, sources in New York said Tuesday.

Postponements are expected for both the UN General Assembly vote on the declaration of an independent Palestinian state, as well as the UN Security Council vote on full Palestinian membership, the sources said.

While media sources are preoccupied with whether the United States will succeed in its attempts to secure a majority of opposing votes to decline the Palestinians' bid for statehood, sources say a "silent agreement" exists between Western powers to act to postpone the vote at the Security Council.

French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe hinted at the apparent vote postponement. In an interview with 'Europe 1' radio on Tuesday, Juppe said that "diplomats are still hoping to prevent a crisis. It doesn't appear that a vote (on a declaration of Palestinian independence) will happen this Friday and that is in order to allow time for diplomacy to renew peace talks."

remainder: http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/report-un-vote-on-palestinian-statehood-might-be-delayed-for-weeks-1.385632
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oberliner Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-20-11 12:57 PM
Response to Original message
1. And thus avoiding any US veto
This is precisely what I expected/predicted.

I still see this as a "win" for Abbas and, more importantly, for the Palestinian people.

There is no getting this horse out of the barn now, so to speak.
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shira Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-20-11 03:29 PM
Response to Reply #1
5. How do you see the UN bid as a win for the Palestinian people? n/t
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oberliner Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-20-11 04:43 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. I think it will raise the prestige of Abbas/Fatah
Which, in turn, will lower that of Hamas which, I think, will be relegated once more to a non-governing role should elections ever be allowed to take place.

The decline of Hamas would be one of the best things that could happen for the Palestinian people in my opinion.
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hack89 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-20-11 04:55 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. What makes you think they will accept relegation?
they are a RW fundamentalist group who actively promote terror and violence. What if they take a cue from Iran or Saudi Arabia and decide to rule Gaza as an authoritarian theocracy?
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oberliner Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-20-11 05:54 PM
Response to Reply #8
11. Check out the most recent polls
Positive evaluation of the performance of the governments of Ismail Haniyeh stands at 34% and Salam Fayyad’s at 53%. Three months ago, these percentages stood at 39% and 43% respectively.

If new presidential elections are held today, and only two were nominated, Abbas would receive the vote of 59% and Haniyeh 34% of the vote of those participating. The rate of participation in such election would reach 60%. In the Gaza Strip, Abbas receives 51% and Haniyeh 42% and in the West Bank Abbas receives 63% and Haniyeh 29%. These results indicate a significant increase in Abbas’ popularity and a decline in Haniyeh’s compared to the situation three months ago when Abbas received the support of 54% and Haniyeh 38%.

Vote for Hamas in the Gaza Strip in this poll stands at 36 % and in the West Bank 25%. Vote for Fateh in the Gaza Strip stands at 43% and in the West Bank 46%.

Doesn't that tell you something?
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shira Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-20-11 05:58 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. Except Hamas, like Iran, won't take an election lying down. n/t
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oberliner Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-21-11 07:39 AM
Response to Reply #12
14. The US and other donors can play a role here
Considering how dependent the Palestinian government is on foreign aid, I don't see Hamas having much success in that regard.

Though I would worry about them returning to more frequent "resistance" activities.
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hack89 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-20-11 06:00 PM
Response to Reply #11
13. How do you think the government of Iran polls?
polls only mean something when those in power respect the will of the people. Hamas has already canceled scheduled elections - doesn't that give you a hint as to what they will do in the future?
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oberliner Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-21-11 07:39 AM
Response to Reply #13
15. Different situation
The US and other Western nations can go a long way to making sure that elections are free and fair (and actually take place) - we have a lot more influence in that regard than we do in Iran.
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hack89 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-21-11 08:09 AM
Response to Reply #15
16. There won't be elections in Gaza
why are you expecting Hamas to act any differently then they have in the past.

What leverage do we have on Hamas that doesn't involve hurting the people of Gaza?
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oberliner Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-21-11 08:17 AM
Response to Reply #16
17. We shall see
I hope (and believe) you are wrong and elections will take place.

The will of the people shall demand it.
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Jefferson23 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-20-11 01:04 PM
Response to Original message
2. As Palestinians push for statehood, US tries to keep peace process alive
The president is seeking a statement from the European Union, Russia, and the UN – that would set the path for a resumption of direct negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority no matter what happens Friday.

By Howard LaFranchi, Staff writer / September 20, 2011

The United States is shifting its attempt to salvage the Israeli-Palestinian peace process into overdrive, with both President Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton putting the issue at the top of their agendas as they meet with other world leaders at the United Nations in New York this week.

Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas has appeared undeterred in his intention to seek full UN membership for an independent Palestine when he speaks to the world body Friday. So the focus now, according to US officials, is to arrive at a statement from world leaders who shepherd the peace process – the so-called “Quartet” of the US, the European Union, Russia, and the UN – that would set the path for a resumption of direct negotiations between the two parties no matter what happens Friday.

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Policy/2011/0920/As-Palestinians-push-for-statehood-US-tries-to-keep-peace-process-alive
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azurnoir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-20-11 01:43 PM
Response to Original message
3. stopping a Palestinian state by any means necessary
including a months long procedural delay how shameful
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Purveyor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-20-11 02:50 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. Well at least nothing has blown-up...yet. eom
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Jefferson23 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-20-11 03:48 PM
Response to Original message
6. Palestinian official to Haaretz: We are ready to consider 'serious' negotiations with Israel
Husam Zomlot says negotiations must include settlements and terms of previous agreements; expects a majority at UN Security Council for Palestinian independence.

A senior Palestinian official told Haaretz Tuesday that the Palestinian leadership is ready to consider any "serious and credible" proposal from the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, that will include settlements freeze and Israel accepting terms of reference of the previous agreements.

However, the official, Husam Zomlot, said the Palestinian stance does not mean they are ready to withdraw their UN bid. "This time it's about substance, not about the photo-op," he said. "We need to provide something serious to our people. If Netanyahu comes with something serious and credible - we'll look at it very seriously".

The PLO diplomatic envoy to the US, Maen Rashid Erekat, told Haaretz that he is not aware of any plans of a meeting between Netanyahu and Abbas, adding that "so far our position is very clear - as of today, we are still heading to the UN to seek full membership".

Following a meeting with French President Nicolas Sarkozy, Zomlot said that even if negotiations begin immediately, "we will still go to UN to seek recognition of the Palestinian state, because we see these tracks as complimentary, not contradictory… we've had enough of 20 years of unimplemented agreements".

Zomlot added that the Palestinians expect a majority vote at the Security Council in favor of Palestinian statehood. "We have a very fierce campaign," he said. "Our position, which is to create a two state solution, is an international consensus. And we want the Israelis to recognize the Palestinian state, as we recognized theirs."

Referring to Obama's speech at the UN last year, in which he expressed his hope to welcome Palestine to the family of nations in a year's time, Zomlot said that the Palestinians are also seeking the U.S.'s support. "After all," he said, "we've been implementing President Obama's vision."

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/palestinian-official-to-haaretz-we-are-ready-to-consider-serious-negotiations-with-israel-1.385644
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hack89 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-20-11 04:56 PM
Response to Reply #6
9. What does Hamas have to say?
who speaks for them?
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Jefferson23 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-20-11 05:08 PM
Response to Original message
10. UN Bid for Palestinian Statehood: A Fruitless Gamble?
By: Nizar Abboud

Published Wednesday, September 21, 2011

The Palestinian Authority’s bid for statehood at the UN has turned into a game of counting state votes at the Security Council, with the US seeking to foil the motion before resorting to a veto.

New York - Palestinian Authority head Mahmoud Abbas (Abu-Mazen) and the sizeable delegation accompanying him to New York have yet to decide on how to proceed with the Palestinian application for admission as a UN member-state. The bid is to be submitted to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon after Abbas addresses the General Assembly on Friday. During a meeting on Monday between Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Salam Fayyad and representatives of Western donor states, also attended by Danny Ayalon, Israel’s deputy foreign minister, Ayalon made clear that Israel would exact economic retribution if the Palestinians went ahead with their UN membership bid. Ayalon warned that “future assistance and cooperation could be severely and irreparably compromised.” The chairman of the meeting, Norwegian Foreign Minister Jonas Gare Store, for his part emerged with the message “that there is an urgent need, as we donors see it, that political negotiations resume.” This was read as a sign that the European donors, while committed in theory to a Palestinian state, are searching for justifications to defer to Israel and the US over the UN bid.

The US administration, increasingly roiled by Abu-Mazen’s insistence to press on with the matter, is making frantic diplomatic efforts to get the application blocked at the Security Council – whose current composition is relatively favourable to Israel. Washington could simply veto the move should it come to a vote, but it does not want to be alone in incurring Arab and Islamic wrath. It would prefer to implicate its allies too.

Germany has already said that it will cast its Security Council vote against granting UN membership to a Palestinian state, on the grounds that this must be sought through negotiations. Britain has reportedly come under heavy pressure to take the same position and bring France and Portugal – the other two European Union members of the Council—into line. The statement made after the donors’ meeting would seem to confirm that this has been achieved.

Washington could simply veto the move should it come to a vote, but it does not want to be alone in incurring Arab and Islamic wrath. It would prefer to implicate its allies too.That would leave the US in need of three more no-votes or abstentions at the 15-member Council ensure that a resolution on the issue doesn’t pass. Seven members – Russia, China, Lebanon, India, South Africa, Brazil and Nigeria – have said they will support the Palestinian application. Colombia, a virtual client state dependent on the US for security cooperation and other aid, will defer to the Americans by abstaining. It is difficult to imagine Bosnia-Herzegovina doing otherwise. Although public opinion in the country supports the Palestinian cause, the former Yugoslav republic is indebted to NATO for its independence and the government may feel its hands are tied. That would leave the vote hanging on Gabon, a poor African country that has come under heavy US pressure over the application unmatched by any Arab encouragement to support it.

Going to the Security Council is therefore a gamble for Abu-Mazen. He could yet make a last-minute decision to opt instead for the easier General Assembly route, which would require the support of 129 countries or a two thirds majority of the 193 UN members.

http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/un-bid-palestinian-statehood-fruitless-gamble
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