By: Nizar Abboud
Published Wednesday, September 21, 2011
The Palestinian Authority’s bid for statehood at the UN has turned into a game of counting state votes at the Security Council, with the US seeking to foil the motion before resorting to a veto.
New York - Palestinian Authority head Mahmoud Abbas (Abu-Mazen) and the sizeable delegation accompanying him to New York have yet to decide on how to proceed with the Palestinian application for admission as a UN member-state. The bid is to be submitted to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon after Abbas addresses the General Assembly on Friday. During a meeting on Monday between Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Salam Fayyad and representatives of Western donor states, also attended by Danny Ayalon, Israel’s deputy foreign minister, Ayalon made clear that Israel would exact economic retribution if the Palestinians went ahead with their UN membership bid. Ayalon warned that “future assistance and cooperation could be severely and irreparably compromised.” The chairman of the meeting, Norwegian Foreign Minister Jonas Gare Store, for his part emerged with the message “that there is an urgent need, as we donors see it, that political negotiations resume.” This was read as a sign that the European donors, while committed in theory to a Palestinian state, are searching for justifications to defer to Israel and the US over the UN bid.
The US administration, increasingly roiled by Abu-Mazen’s insistence to press on with the matter, is making frantic diplomatic efforts to get the application blocked at the Security Council – whose current composition is relatively favourable to Israel. Washington could simply veto the move should it come to a vote, but it does not want to be alone in incurring Arab and Islamic wrath. It would prefer to implicate its allies too.
Germany has already said that it will cast its Security Council vote against granting UN membership to a Palestinian state, on the grounds that this must be sought through negotiations. Britain has reportedly come under heavy pressure to take the same position and bring France and Portugal – the other two European Union members of the Council—into line. The statement made after the donors’ meeting would seem to confirm that this has been achieved.
Washington could simply veto the move should it come to a vote, but it does not want to be alone in incurring Arab and Islamic wrath. It would prefer to implicate its allies too.That would leave the US in need of three more no-votes or abstentions at the 15-member Council ensure that a resolution on the issue doesn’t pass. Seven members – Russia, China, Lebanon, India, South Africa, Brazil and Nigeria – have said they will support the Palestinian application. Colombia, a virtual client state dependent on the US for security cooperation and other aid, will defer to the Americans by abstaining. It is difficult to imagine Bosnia-Herzegovina doing otherwise. Although public opinion in the country supports the Palestinian cause, the former Yugoslav republic is indebted to NATO for its independence and the government may feel its hands are tied. That would leave the vote hanging on Gabon, a poor African country that has come under heavy US pressure over the application unmatched by any Arab encouragement to support it.
Going to the Security Council is therefore a gamble for Abu-Mazen. He could yet make a last-minute decision to opt instead for the easier General Assembly route, which would require the support of 129 countries or a two thirds majority of the 193 UN members.
http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/un-bid-palestinian-statehood-fruitless-gamble