Unilateralism and its discontents

[Gimel]

By DENNIS ROSS Jerusalem Post Opinion Jan 22, 2004

Few if any observers expect the Bush administration to take any meaningful steps to affect the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian war in 2004.

After all, the administration is unlikely to put any pressure on Israel in an election year, is preoccupied with Iraq, and has little faith that the Palestinian Authority can do anything so long as Yasser Arafat has veto power over any security measures. And yet, if little is done, this year will be characterized by more drift, violence, and anger by Israelis and Palestinians alike at the hopelessness of the situation.

Yet the expected lack of high visibility initiatives does not imply a lack of options. There are at least three: a limited Israel-PA deal, Palestinian regime change, and coordinated unilateralism.


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Going beyond these steps to dismantle the terrorist infrastructure, as called for in the road map, is something Qurei knows Yasser Arafat will not permit. But he is likely to believe that Arafat will accept
a more limited deal that at least gives a cease-fire a chance to endure. Even for this, Abu Ala will press Sharon to lift all checkpoints, allow Arafat to travel at least within the West Bank and Gaza, and suspend work on the fence and settlement activity.

While this may be more than Sharon is willing to do, he probably can negotiate on this basis and produce understandings on a timeline for lifting checkpoints, slowing work on the fence if there is no terror, and ending the outward expansion of settlements so no additional land is taken.

Both Sharon and Qurei might accept such a limited deal, given the unilateralist alternatives neither is likely to favor. Sharon, because he seeks Palestinian quid quo pros for any painful Israeli steps. Qurei, because he would rather be seen as the prime minister who succeeded in changing Israeli behavior and restoring normal life than one who presided over Israel's imposition of its own border. For the former, he needs a deal.


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The coordinated unilateral agreements may yet spring a hudna, according to Ross.