Shin Bet says terror will last through 2006

[Gimel]

The Shin Bet security service believes that if Yasser Arafat remains in charge of the Palestinian Authority, terror attacks can be expected all the way to 2006, for lack of any political progress that includes the Palestinian security services fighting terrorism.

While terror attacks like yesterday's{Jan 329} in Jerusalem will be rarer, they could become more deadly and involve the use of chemical, biological or radioactive materials.

Shin Bet chief Avi Dichter thinks the faster the separation wall goes, the more terror groups will try to make whatever attacks they get past Israeli security as painful and significant as possible.

According to Shin Bet information, Arafat is not ordering any terror attacks but neither is he allowing any internal attempts to unify the security services under anyone else, like Mahmoud Abbas, Mohammed Dahlan or Ahmed Qureia, who has been denied any control over any security services.

<snip>

The Shin Bet's support for creating obstacles to terrorists, like the security fence, is largely based on the fact that obstacles force the terror cells to rely on more people, thus creating more opportunities for intelligence penetration.

But the fence could also spur terrorists to try using new ingredients in bombs. Experts say there is no shortage of resources, medical or otherwise, in the Palestinian territories, for biological, chemical and even radiological elements to be introduced.

Even in even small dosages, such materials put in a regular bomb to make it "dirty" could create panic.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/388656.html

Briefly: Arafat is not lifting a finger to stop terror. The anti-terror wall could to enable better intelligence reports. However, the use of banned weapons could become more attractive to the terrorists.

[DuctapeFatwa]

1. the US plans to have the entire region depopulated and occupied by 06

Because of the special relationship between US and Israel it is not surprising that Shin Bet will play a vital role in helping America to impose its will on its properties around the globe, and secure America's oil.

The Israeli will as always, be pleased and honored to make any necessary sacrifices as America deploys its Israeli resources to secure vital American fuel resources in Iran.

[bemildred]

2. I do wonder why they picked 2006 out of a hat.

The magic wall maybe?

The piece seems to be self-serving PR drool for Shin Bet,
no real content that I can see.

Are we supposed to believe that Arafart is supposed to want
to get off his butt and do something about the situation now?
Why would he? It's perfectly clear where his values and interests
lie, and there is no reason at all to expect him to do anything,
and Shin Bet can whine about it until the cows come home and it
will affect nothing.

They set out to marginalize him, and he's marginalized. The
fact that none of the appointed successors somehow inherited his
support is of course a problem, but then it was dumb to think that
they would, it's not that easy.

[Gimel]

5. A projection as a gage

I thought it was interesting, that for at least 2 more years, the battle is not expected to abate. The anti-terror fence won't be complete for another year.

The point about Arafat not allowing them to actually control the militants as a legitimate single army, as well as the points about intelligence gathering:

The Shin Bet's support for creating obstacles to terrorists, like the security fence, is largely based on the fact that obstacles force the terror cells to rely on more people, thus creating more opportunities for intelligence penetration.

And the types of attacks Israel might receive in the future.

If it's self-serving, perhaps intentionally so. Preparation is better than feigned ignorance.

[bemildred]

7. That is true. It is not happy talk.

The point about the fence facilitating intelligence is clear enough, and makes
more sense than a lot I hear about the fence. But then it seemed clear from the
outset that the fence was an admission of the failure of "Operation Defensive
Shield", and its purpose was to improve control of who goes in and out. It may
well work fairly well in that regard, and if coupled with a troop withdrawal and an
end to the roadblocks should reduce manpower requirements and may actually
bring about some improvements in the situation. It is clearly, however, a stopgap,
and in that sense also an indication of the lack of any more creative ideas as to
how to work towards a more permanent solution. There is as little reason now to
think that increasing the pressure on the Palestinians in general will improve the
situation as there was three years ago, and yet that is still all that is on offer.

The lack of organization (in the Palestinian forces) may be intentional - I think so -
as being organized in the present circumstances simply provides more convenient
targets for the IDF.

Preparation is indeed better than feigned ignorance.

[papau]

3. I think we agree - if the PA used bio/chem/radiologic bomb, response would

be to force all Palestinians into Jordan.

A lousy ending, but I can't think of who would try to stop Sharon after such an event.

[bemildred]

4. Perhaps.

But moving millions of people is not a simple task,
it would be very messy and drag on for quite a long time,
and Jordan would not be happy at all, and in would still
not bring about the desired resolution. In fact, it clearly
would exacerbate the problem in pursuit of a chimerical
delusion of "security".

It's not so much a matter of stopping Sharon, nobody stops
Sharon, it's a matter of avoiding another desperate bungle.

Put yourself in the position of planning and organizing such
an effort and think about it. What little serious discussion
of it I have read (Martin van Creveld's piece was the most
serious.) still has the air of a fantasy about finding a neat,
clean, and permanent (avoiding the word "final" here) solution
to the problem.

There is no neat clean solution to the problem, there is only
the choice to begin NOW to start working to make peoples lives
better in a disciplined way, or to continue with the present
delay, denial, and deception, with the consequent measured slide
further into the abyss.

[Muddleoftheroad]

6. Actually, it is amazingly simple

Normal people flee warzones. And, contrary to some comments about the West Bank, it's not a real war zone. Maybe it's only a step or two worse than Southeast D.C.

But if Israel WANTED to move the Palestinians, it could do so. Round the clock aerial or artillery bombardments of each town would result in people fleeing. Most non-combatants would be gone in short order.

Clearly, Israel does NOT wish to depopulate the area despite fantasy claims to the contrary.

[Name removed]

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