Survey: Likud down, left gaining momentum

[Scurrilous]

http://www.maarivintl.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=article&articleID=3836

<snip>

"The Israeli right is losing popularity and the left is gaining momentum, according to the latest “Maariv-New Wave” survey. The survey indicates that if an election were held today, between four and five Knesset seats would shift from right- to left-wing parties.

Although the Labor Party's strength is unchanged at 19 seats, the new left-wing party Yahad, which includes Meretz, has grown to 9 seats from Meretz's present 6. The additional seats, however, were apparently not gained directly from the Likud (which dropped from 40 to 36 seats ), but from Labor or Shinui. Votes therefore seem to be moving from the parties in the present government to Labor, and then to Yahad."

<snip>

"While the political scene on the eve of Sharon's scheduled visit to Washington thus shows a slight shift to the left, Sharon himself has adopted a relaively left-of-center approach. Therefore the survey probably won't be seen as a blow for the Likud, but it will certainly get the party's attention as many of its activists have been opposing the PM's policy."

[number6]

1. good

:)

[tinnypriv]

2. Yachad

Is roughly Meretz-style anyway, but still that means much more reasonable and flexible with regards to peace-talks than Labor.

To (loosely) quote from their (not fully finalised I think) party platform (in Hebrew):

Palestinians

* Conflict will be solved on the basis of UN 242/338/1397 and the Arab League plan of March 2002.

* Jerusalem will be the joint capital of two states

* Solution to the refugee problem without right of return to Israel.

* Peace through negotiations, not unilateral steps

* Any physical obstacles between Israel and the Palestinians (i.e fence) will only be placed on the green line, or on a border agreed to between the two sides.

* Agreements to be drawn from the principles of the Geneva initiative, Ayylon-Nussbei plan, Clinton-Taba talks etc.

Syria

* Peace based on the 1994 peace with Jordan and full Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights.

* Normalisation of water supply relations between Israel and Syria

* Stringent security agreements/arrangements.

etc.

This is only a sample - the rest of it is of course about telecoms, pensions and such. Nothing non-Israelis should be much concerned with I guess.

[tinnypriv]

3. Also

Note that the English editor of Ma'ariv (or perhaps just one of the translators) refers to Meretz (i.e. basically Yachad) as "extreme-left".

Gives you an indication of how much a chance these guys have of pulling in some support in Israel, due in no small part to the fact almost nobody in the United States cares to help 'em out.

[mobuto]

4. Go Shinui

The religious fanatics on both sides are the biggest obstacles to peace. Israel will either be secular or it will destroy itself. Tommy Lapid's wrong on many issues, but he's the best hope against the Haredim. Now if I were Israeli, I'd probably vote Labor seeing as I agree with them a lot more, but one has to root for Shinui.

[tinnypriv]

5. One thing Lapid is certainly right about

The current path of the fence is "totally indefensible".

As for Labor, if you voted for them in the current climate you'd probably see the people you voted for agree to be stooges in a "national unity" govt (Likud run in fact as well as name).

[mobuto]

6. Well, since I'm not an Israeli, the debate is academic

but Shinui and Labor seem to understand what Meretz and Likud do not - the lessons of John F. Kennedy's inaugural address.

So let us begin anew--remembering on both sides that civility is not a sign of weakness, and sincerity is always subject to proof. Let us never negotiate out of fear. But let us never fear to negotiate.

Meretz would negotiate out of fear; Likud fears to negotiate.

[tinnypriv]

7. I rather think Labor prefers JFK's other legacy

i.e. massive state terrorism.

Peres couldn't be more establishment if he tried. If he was a U.S. citizen he'd probably be running the DLC. ;-)

[tinnypriv]

8. Also

Shinui barely differs in on the ground planning with regards to the Palestinians than Sharon does (in fairness, Labor too).

They don't advocate the removal of virtually any of the major settlement blocs for instance, and reject any negotiations with Arafat since he isn't a "partner" (despite knowing that picking stooges will be a disaster and result in a Hamas takeover - as predicted by Israeli intelligence).

So no, they don't fear to negotiate, or negotiate out of fear, because they get to pick who to "negotiate" with, and get to take items for "negotiation" off the table (i.e. control of the blocs, which amounts to 15-20 effective percent of the WB).

None of the above should hardly come as a surprise, since Shinui took the same positions when they were part of Rabin's gov (though under a diff name).