False dawn

[bemildred]

Peace is at hand! Democracy is spreading like wildfire! Free lunch for everybody! I'd like to believe it, but I'm sorry, I just can't. No Israeli-Palestinian peace settlement is in sight. Democracy is not sweeping the Arab world. And lunch costs the same as usual.

The mainstream Western media are sometimes pathetically easy to manipulate. President Bush gives a couple of speeches in which he declares yet again that "freedom is on the march" in the Middle East, Israeli and Palestinian leaders shake hands -- and suddenly the talk is all of "windows of opportunity" and "democratic transformation" in the region. Mr. Bush talks like that because it pushes all the right buttons in the only audience he really cares about, the American one, but what real evidence is there for a new dawn of peace and democracy in the Middle East?

That is a misleading question, in a way, because the Middle East has already been at peace for over a decade. Apart from the U.S. invasion of Iraq two years ago and occasional Israeli forays into Lebanon and Syria, no military forces have crossed any international frontier in the region since 1991. When the Western media talk about "peace", they really mean a permanent peace settlement between Israel and the Palestinians who have lived under Israeli military occupation for the past 38 years.

It is generally accepted that that settlement must involve a "two-state solution" that turns the occupied Palestinian territories into an independent Palestinian state. The three main obstacles to that settlement have always been the same: the desire of millions of Palestinian refugees to return to their former family homes in what is now Israel; the Jewish settlements that have been illegally planted all over the occupied Palestinian territories; and the Palestinian demand that East (Arab) Jerusalem be the capital of their new state.

Tehran Times

[Jim Sagle]

1. Let's dispose of these "obstacles."

the desire of millions of Palestinian refugees to return to their former family homes in what is now Israel;

Ain't happenin'. Fugedddabaoudit!

the Jewish settlements that have been illegally planted all over the occupied Palestinian territories;

Those settlements will go away during negotiations.

and the Palestinian demand that East (Arab) Jerusalem be the capital of their new state.

They can demand all they want. That's not too likely either.

The thing is, once Israel lets go of the settlements, the Palestinian side's leverage is gone. Peace is at hand. Too bad, so sad.

[bemildred]

2. How deterministic. nt

[idontwantaname]

5. Jims still waiting for his free lunch...

"Ain't happenin'. Fugedddabaoudit!"

[DemFromMem]

3. And terrorism?

Has that not also been something that has been a tool for extremist Israeli and Palestinian groups who have been interested in derailing peace. Whenever I see a post like this where it appears that only one side has been the problem, my "agenda" light goes on.

And I thought the terms of a settlement were to be negotiated? I'm glad Abbas is his own man and doesn't let the DU hardliners call the shots.

As for no settlement being in sight, part of making peace is creating the goodwill that allows the parties to trust one another and make painful choices. In other words, you have to talk the talk first and then hope that you can follow through with real change.

[bemildred]

4. "only one side has been the problem"

I thought he was fairly even handed, in a negative sort of way.
Where does he say it's only one side that is the problem?

Everyone has an agenda, the question is whether one agrees or not.
Having an agenda doesn't tell you much by itself. I have an agenda,
you have an agenda, so what?

His main point seems to be that there is no reason to think that the
intractable parts of this problem have suddenly become tractable.
It's not that happy-talk is not necessary, it's that happy-talk is
not enough.

I don't have a position on the outcome of the current round of
"peacemaking", but I remain skeptical, and the history of this
conflict supports skepticism.

[DemFromMem]

14. the assumption I picked up

I read from the post that the three issues mentioned were the overriding obstacles to peace. My point was that there was a fourth - terrorism - and that there will be no peace unless that issue is also addressed. I think Abbas gets it. That's why I'm more optimistic these days.

[bemildred]

15. It seems obvious (to me) that there will be no peace

while the violence continues. "Kill for peace" has always
been a dumb proposition.

After re-reading it, I see which three issues you mean.
It seems to me he is simply stating the facts as he sees them.
If the facts make one feel defensive for some reason, they are
still the facts, it does not mean he is in favor of one side
over another because he points them out. Of course you may
disagree with his facts.

[DemFromMem]

16. The No Peace Crowd

There are so many folks on this board who have spent years and years hardening their views on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, that they have an emotional stake in maintaining the status quo. They will not be denied their enemy. I see it on both sides of the debate. I have plenty of right wing pro-Israeli friends who are absolutely certain that the Palestinians have still not given up on their long term goal of driving the Jews into the sea. And it is obvious from your post and others that you believe that any concessions the Israelis are discussing lack any sincerity.

I'm reminded of the final days of the Cold War when Eastern European communist dictatorships were falling. Anti-communists in the US should have been cheering the good news, but they were often the last to believe that the war was finally over.

I can see a day when a final peace treaty is signed, then logging into this forum and seeing people still spouting off the same pre-approved talking points demonizing either the Israeli or the Palestinian leadership.

[bemildred]

17. Ah, really.

Then I don't see why you waste our time by talking at me.
It's not like you were willing to address anything I said.

[DemFromMem]

18. Huh?

The original post I responded to said that while the points were fair, terrorism was also an obstacle to a lasting peace. Then you responded to me and completely ignored that central point of my post. You were the one responding to me, remember?

[bemildred]

20. I quoted you in post #4's title, and responded to the quote.

I wasn't questioning what you said about terrorism,
so why should I "respond" to it?

Then I commented on your statement about your "agenda light"

Then I commented on your third paragraph.

Then I commented on my own positon in my fourth paragraph.

Admittedly, I ignored your second paragraph.

Your response (#14) was "the assumption I picked up", and then to
reiterate the importance of terrorism, as you see it.

I then said (#15) that indeed violence will have to stop for there
to be peace, and again attempted to address the issue of Mr. Dyer's
agenda or bias or whatever you meant by that, and tried to suggest
you address what he said, to agree or disagree, instead of pursuing
the ad hominem attack on his impartiality.

You then resorted (#16) to an ad hominem attack on me personally:

it is obvious from your post and others that you believe that any concessions the Israelis are discussing lack any sincerity

Still avoiding discussing what Mr. Dyer actually said, and also
avoiding what I actually said.

Now it's back to the idea that I should criticize the terrorism
point that I don't disagree with.

[Coastie for Truth]

6. Dwyer's article may be a bit pessimistic

The added factor is the "high income employment"/"high exports industries" investors have taken their money off of the "Middle Eastern Table" -- even the Malaysian and Indonesian tables. Too much "risk premium."

Outside of the oil industry, the investors have gone to China and India. The only ball game left is oil.

Intel's cancellation of the latest Israeli semiconductor foundry was only the tip of an iceberg. Have you seen any new "printed circuit board" or "software development" investment - even in Qatar or Egypt. I follow the industry -- and I haven't.

Andy Grove, founder of Intel, and a strong friend of Israel's, has said that the investments won't made in the region -- except for oil -- until the Israel-Palestine issue is "resolved."

The people who "worry" about this (not the politicians or the pseudo academics or the pseudo journalists -- but the business people) know that "train is leaving the station."

Neither Israel nor the Palestinians have oil -- so they may be left in the backwater for another generation.

This is "disinvestment" - but bi-lateral directed at both Israel and Palestine. It is the disinvestment of the investors.

[bemildred]

7. That is an interesting bit.

I have been of the opinion that Jabba's negotiating position, or
whatever one wishes to call it, had eroded somewhat of late, he
has been making a lot of what would at one time have been considered
big concessions. It seems obvious this is being done to shore up the
negotiations with Abbas. It is not enough to say Arafat is gone, and
it is not convincing that the Palestinians are suddenly "winning" where
before they were "losing", so I've been casting about for other
explanations. The economic and social costs of the mess of course come
to mind, and this ties in nicely with that line of thought. I do think
the evident weakening of the US's position in the Middle East -- that
Bush has brought to pass with the Iraq debacle -- is part of it too.

Edit: I have seen the professional working relationships of Israelis
and Arabs myself in the HiTech business, and I concur with your
observations.

[Coastie for Truth]

8. In person...

you posted:

"Edit: I have seen the professional working relationships of Israelis and Arabs myself in the HiTech business, and I concur with your
observations."

I agree. And it goes beyond IT. I am here in Silly Valley. My two closest colleagues are Shiia's (and I am Jewish - and one of my first cousins and one of my wife's first cousins both ran for the Knesset on the Peace Now ticket, and another of my cousins is an organizer of "New Jewish Voice for Peace", and we pray together at Rabbi Michael Lerner's Beyt Tikkun in Berkeley -- I am not a Sharon worshiping Neocon militarist.)

[bemildred]

9. And it really is much better than all this squabbling, isn't it?

:thumbsup:

[pelsar]

10. israels economy...

I"m experiencing quite the "overload" in business overhere in israel and I am directly related to the hi tech business....a far cry from what it was 2 years ago. Ads in the paper for workers has now increased....so I really dont understand the talk of "the train has left the station etc.

and the article?....ignores the basic change in the PA/israeli relationship, the fact that the PA is now actually doing something, and the IDF has left many areas to the PA control, damn those facts always get in the way of a good article.

for those of us who actually live here, it does make a difference, but then there are always those that if this conflict does actually end, will find themselves without an outside enemy and their own end will then soon be near.....irans theocracy without israel and with a (i hope) democractic oriented iraq, will finds its own little govt nearing its end-(the agenda....)

[bemildred]

11. So you think everything is great?

From what I can see, the economy has recovered somewhat in the
last year of so, just as the level of violence has declined a bit.
No doubt that is clearer to you being there.

[pelsar]

12. great?

no..i'm just saying that in my personal experience the israeli economy is simply picking up....no more and no less

and by connection to the PA economy (we have a strong underground economy linked to the PA), theirs too is probably picking up, though I have no real knowledge of it, nor have I read anything

it actually started about 6 months ago....

[bemildred]

13. Then we agree, that seems to be so. nt

[Coastie for Truth]

19. You might want to check out this link - given Israel's biotech strengths

Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2005/02/24/business/worldbusiness/24offshore.html?

Medical Companies Joining Offshore Trend

The exporting of jobs by ... ... is telling evidence that the relentless shifting of employment to countries like India and China that has occurred in manufacturing, back-office work and computer programming is now spreading to a crown jewel of corporate America: the medical and drug industries.

It could be a worrisome sign. The life sciences industry, with its largely white-collar work force and its heavy reliance on scientific innovation, was long thought to be less vulnerable to the outsourcing trend. The industry, moreover, is viewed as an economic growth engine and the source of new jobs, particularly as growth slows in other sectors like information technology.

<snip><

Fueling the outsourcing trend are Indian and Chinese scientists who obtained graduate degrees and work experience in the United States and Europe and are now returning to their native countries.

<snip><

China and India are starting to invest heavily in developing biotechnology expertise. Meanwhile, Singapore has created a cluster of research centers and has attracted some top scientists.

Another potential advantage for some Asian countries is their more permissive stance on embryonic stem cell research, a promising new field that is restricted in the United States.

The American educated PhD's in biotech (and talking to my "Peace Now" cousin in Jerusalem, whose technoid son just took off for India) some Israeli biotech PhD's are making the move to India.

This is Israeli's srtongest and most profitable growth industry -- and these jobs should be going to Israel. I will go along with Intel founder Andy Grove's explanation - and Applied Materials former CEO Dan Mydan's analysis --- "war risk premium" is discouraging growth in Israel and the Muslim states.