TPM.....This battle in Iowa is truly going down to the wire.

[windansea]

Interesting analysis of Iowa caucus

"To put it succinctly, in many caucuses, the issue is going to be less whether Gephardt and Dean are separated by 2% or 6% as who the Kerry and Edwards supporters go to on the second round.

Before you flame me with your emails, I'm not trying to prejudge Kerry's and Edwards' chances. But you can see the level of uncertainty that plays into the calculus.

On the face of it, it would seem this volatility would work against Dean since the race has been polarized between Dean as the outsider vs. anti-Dean Washington candidates. If you're for Kerry, who has made opposition to Dean an increasing focus of his campaign, do you switch to Dean or to Gephardt, if Kerry falls under 15% if your caucus? The latter seems more logical to me. But so many factors must play in to this that I'm not sure 'logic', especially from a thousand miles away, gets you very close to the truth."

more...

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/

[windansea]

1. kick for Josh n/t

[windansea]

2. DLC cockroaches to gang up on Dean

probably a better title for the thread

heh heh

[oasis]

3. Josh states his case clearly and it makes good sense. As much as Democrats

need Kerry's domestic and foreign policy message to finally get the spotlight, I'd settle for a Dean slowdown by way of a Gephardt win in Iowa.

[windansea]

4. me freakin too n/t

[anti-bush]

5. Or even scarier to Dean and Gephardt

is Edwards and Kerry supporters joining forces.

If they do it in enough places, one of those two could end up winning Iowa.

[windansea]

6. yes...

its all so Machiavellian