question about Iowa caucuses process

[Bucky]

Reading TPM (if you need a link from me to TPM you're not using your Bookmarks function at all) Josh Marshall wrote:

"The Caucus system works by a sort of snowbound version of the uncertainty principle. The particulars are so detailed that I'm sure to get some part of it wrong. But basically how the caucuses work is that everyone shows up and they divide into groups based on candidate preference. But if your candidate has less than 15% of the attendees then your guy (or gal) is out."

But that's not how I understand it. Let's say you're in a caucus and the votes are like this:
LaRouche - 34%, Lieberman - 30%, Dukakis - 20%, Kerry - 8%, Edwards - 8%

Now in this set up, if what Marshall says is right, then both Kerry and Edwards are out. But the way I understand it--Ah say, Ah say, the way we do things in TEXAS, son--is that the Kerry and Edwards people are not out of it if they can agree to caucus together. That is, can't they group together as "Undeclared" and send a 16% portion of the precinct's delegates up to the next convention level? Or are they forced to chose among the surviving candidates for that precinct convention?

[windansea]

1. Once your candidate is out you have to pick another.

after the first "vote"

[eyesroll]

3. Well, you can drop out.

But yes, you can chose another. Instant runoff, if you will.

[ISUGRADIA]

11. That is not the way it works

Let's say Kucinich is not viable in the first round with 13%. His supporters must either convince people to join them, or they must realign with a viable group if that does not happen. So Kucinich could easily be viable in the realignment period, let's say with 16%.

[SummerGrace]

2. Yes, they can

group together (they have to be 'viable') or go with another candidate (sometimes "deals" are made to let them send a delegate for their candidate but it is reported as a delegate for the candidate they choose to join).

[1floridademocrat]

4. Welll welll...

This is OT so I am sorry.. BUT...

I can't make a new thread yet, not enough posts..

But I'm sure everyone remembers the slamming of Trippi (and Dean by way of being his employer for the Bus Cranston Incident back in 83? Where supposedly Trippi effectivly "stole" a bunch of tickets from Cranston supporters for the Jefferson-Jackson dinner?


It didn't happen.

In the latest issue of TNR (The letters on line are subscription only, so I had to go buy a copy) The AUTHOR OF THE ARTICLE admits that A)Trippi wasn't even in Iowa at the time, and B) He can't find any evidence that it actually happened. This was prompted by Cosgrove who WAS there writing a letter to TNR about this issue.

So it seems trippi was pulling the leg of the reporter.. *grin*

So lets say it again..


TRIPPI DIDN'T ENGINEER MASS FRAUD IN IOWA IN 83!
IT DIDN'T HAPPEN!

The auther does say that there was some effort by some supporters of Mondales to flinch some tickets from Gosgrove, but no busses were used, nor were there a lot of tickets taken.

And again, TRIPPI WASN'T EVEN IN IOWA YET. He didn't get to Iowa until Dec of 83, the Jackson-Jefferson dinner happened in October of 83.


Shooting down one more BS anti-Dean attack at a time!

[kayleybeth]

5. So Trippi's a liar?

I'll take that into account, thanks.

[1floridademocrat]

8. Actually it reads a lot more..

like trippi was taking a piss out of a TNR reporter. Hell I'd do the same thing.. Any magazine that claims to be "Democratic" and hires Charles Krauthamer I'd take a piss out of as well.

[cindyw]

12. No one will consider him credible again if you is making things

up in interviews. This looks bad on Dean. I wouldn't be so eager to spread it around. It sends the message that Trippi will do or say anything, even lie.

[in_cog_ni_to]

7. You would have to find the original thread,

but I do believe...It was Trippi HIMSELF telling the story. So he was lying about it? OK, I believe you. :eyes:

[Name removed]

9. Deleted message

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[goodhue]

6. 15% required for viability

but yes they can join together as undeclared as you suggest

[iowapeacechief]

10. This is why so many predictions are off base

Unless you understand the viability rules, you don't understand what will happen at the Iowa caucuses and that will skew your predictions. There is nothing like a secret ballot, and, yes, your effort counts zero unless you join a viable team, either another candidate or Undecided. But this occurs precinct by precinct, so the state results will rank all candidates and show all percentages of support.