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Edited on Mon Oct-11-04 11:21 AM by JCMach1
Big news is the party has Kerry with 264 and * with 239
and *Damn* it looks right now that it would come down to Florida again
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Today's Topic: Monday Review of the Must Win States: > > Some major changes from last week. > > State polling for president and senatorial races is occuring fast and > furious, the frustrating thing is that it takes days to get the > results posted on the websites that are following them. > Unfortunately, the websites promising to track congressional races are > very slow on the uptake; going to individual Newspaper and TV Stations > is very time consuming. I am hoping that this situation will improve > in the next week or so. In the meantime, we will still have to rely > on assessments without numbers in too many cases. I am leaving last > week's numbers in the charts so that you can see the trends on one > page rather than looking them up in old DCRs. > > STATE: Missouri EV: 11 > > PRESIDENTIAL RACE > > DATE POLLSTER MOE BUSH KERRY NADER UND. > 10 5 Zogby 3.0 49.6 48.6 > 10 4 Rasmussen 5.0 51 45 > 10 3 Survey USA 3.8 49 47 > 9 14-17 Mason-Dixon 4.0 48 41 1 > 9 11-13 St. Louis Post 3.5 49 42 9 > The race in Missouri is tightening up; Kerry got a lot of free > advertising from the St. Louis debate after pulling most ads in the > preceding weeks. But right now it looks like Bush's state to lose. BUSH 11 > SENATE > > DATE POLLTER MOE Bond Farmer UND > No new polling since last week, but Bond is still way ahead. > 9 13-16 St. Louis Post 3.5 53 38 9 > > We are not following any House races in Missouri at this point > > GOVERNOR > > DATE POLLSTER MOE Blunt McCaskill UND > No new polling since last week. > 9 13-16 St. Louis Post 3.5 46 45 9 > > COMMENT: Misssour is much tighter than before, but Bush still leads. > It is his to lose at this point. > > > STATE: Florida EV: 27 > > PRESIDENTIAL RACE > > DATE POLLSTER MOE BUSH KERRY NADER UND. > 10 5 Zogby 2.2 48.4 49.7 > 10 4-5 Mason-Dixon LV 4.0 48 44 2 6 > 10 2-5 ARG LV 4.0 45 47 2 6 10 1-5 > Quinnipiac Univ RV 3.7 46 42 10 > 9 24-27 Gallup (RV) 4.0 49 44 2 5 > 9 18-21 Quinnipiac Univ. 3.4 48 43 2 1 > > SENATE > > DATE POLLSTER MOE Martinez Castor UND > 10 5-7 Global Strategy (D) 3.7 40 47 12 (LV) > 10 4-6 Strategic Vision (R) 3.0 45 48 7 (LV) > 10 1-5 Quinnipiac LV 3.7 48 47 5 > " RV 3.7 40 44 14 > 9 18-22 CNN 4.0 43 49 8 > 9 18-21 Quinnipian Univ. 3.4 42 43 13 > I don't like to post party polls, because I qeustion their methodolgy > and accurace, but since both Global Strategy and Strategic Vision are > in agreement, I thought it useful to include it this time. Caster > still appears to holds a lead, but some commentators are saying the > Martinez has narrowed the gap and may even lead (look at Quinnipiac). > We will have to watch closely; this is truly a must win for us. > > HOUSE - FL - 13 > > POLLSTER POP MOE Harris Schneider UND > No recent polling data, but Harris is apparantly doing well. > > No Governor's race in Florida > > COMMENT: This race has tightened again with some polls, particularly Zogby > with a MOE of 2.2 showing Kerry taking the lead. But I am not yet > convinced, so I will call this one a tie until more data comes in. > What else do you expect in Florida? > > > STATE: Ohio EV: 20 > > PRESIDENTIAL RACE > > DATE POLLSTER MOE BUSH KERRY NADER UND. > 10 4-6 ARG LV 4.0 47 48 1 4 > 10 5 Zogby 2.3 48.9 49.0 > 10 3 Survey USA 3.6 48 49 > 9/22-10/1 Columbus Dispatch 2.0 51 44 5 > 9 25-28 CNN 4.0 49 47 3 > > > SENATE > > DATE POLLSTER MOE Voinivich Fingerhut UND > > No new poll since last week's report. Most observers don't think Fingerhut > has a chance to catch Voinivich. > 9/22-10/1 Columbus Dispatch 2.0 56 34 10 > 9 21-22 Fox News 3.5 58 30 11 > > We are not following any House races in Ohio > > No Governor's race in Ohio > > COMMENT: Three straight polls give Kerry a "within the margin of > error" lead. Notice that Zogby's 2.3 MOE also shows the two separated > by .1. Did > I mention last week that turnout is everything in Ohio? (Don't look, I > did.) KERRY 20, but not solid. > > > STATE: Pennsylvania EV: 21 > > PRESIDENTIAL RACE > > DATE POLLSTER MOE BUSH KERRY NADER UND. > 10 4-6 ARG LV 4.0 46 48 1 5 > Without Nader 46 49 > 10 5 Zogby 2.6 46.4 51.9 > 10 1-4 West Chester LV 4.0 43 50 1 6 > 9 90-10 4 Franklin & Marshall 4.0 41 48 3 8 > 9 27-28 Mason-Dixon 4.0 44 45 2 9 > 9 25-28 CNN 4.0 45 49 3 5 > > Interesting poll on "Is it time for a change?" from Franklin & > Marshall University (Pennsylvania only): > 9 30-10 4 Yes 55 No 40 > 9 8-15 Yes 49 No 47 > > SENATE > > DATE POLLSTER MOE Specter Hoeffel Other UND > 10 1-4 West Chester 4.0 49 30 20 > 9 30-10 4 Franklin&Marshall 4.0 44 35 7 14 > (LV) > 46 32 6 16 > 9 22-26 Quinnipiac Univ. 2.9 52 33 13 > (There are third party candidates in the race). Most observers have > been calling this race over, but, with Kerry's lead now solidifying, > Hoeffel's numbers are not without hope. 14-20% undedicded this late > in the race tells me that something is going on. Let's wait for more > data before declaring Specter the winner. > > > HOUSE PA - 6 > > DATE POLLSTER MOE Gerlach Murphy UND > No recent polling data in PA - 6, but Gerlach believed to be ahead. > > HOUSE PA - 8 > > DATE POLLSTER MOE Fitzpatrick Schrader UND > No recent polling data in PA - 8, but Schrader is given a good chance here. > > HOUSE PA - 13 > > DATE POLLSTER MOE Brown Schwartz UND > No more recent polling. Schwartz is believed to be safe. > 9 16-21 Franklin & Marshall 4.9 32 45 23 > > HOUSE PA - 15 > > DATE POLLSTER MOE Dent Driscoll Other UND > 9 27 10 3 Muhlenberg College 4.7 52 20 2 26 > 26% undecided when the leader has a 32 point lead. ??? > > HOUSE PA - 17 > > DATE POLLSTER MOE Paterno Holden UND > No recent polling data in PA -17, but Holden is expected to win. > > There is no governor's race in Pennsylvania > > COMMENT: Pennsylvania has clearly moved in Kerry's direction over the > past week. KERRY 21 > > > STATE: Michigan EV: 17 > > PRESIDENTIAL RACE > > DATE POLLSTER MOE BUSH KERRY NADER UND. > 10 6 Survey USA 3.9 42 52 > 10 5 Zogby 2.8 44.5 54.2 > 9 22-28 Detroit Free Press 3.5 46 48 6 > 9 20-24 Inside Michigan 4.1 43 45 11 > 9 21-22 Fox News 3.5 44 46 9 > > There is no Senate race in Michigan > > We are not following any House races in Michigan > > There is no governor's race in Michigan > > COMMENT: Kerry has once again moved into a commanding lead in > Michigan. The main Arab-American organization in Michigan has endorsed > Kerry, they endorsed Bush last time. > > BOTTOM LINE: As of 11 October, Bush leads in Missouri, but not by > much, Florida is a tie but Kerry is gaining, Ohio moves in Kerry > column, but not by much, Pennsylvania and Michigan are stronger for > Kerry than last week. Must Win State count: Kerry 58, Bush 11, Tied > 27. This change reflects how well Kerry did in the first debate, but > does not include much from the VP debate or anything from the second > Pres. debate. > > For comparison from last week: > As of 4 October: Bush wins Missouri, Ohio and Florida; Kerry wins > Pennsylvania and Michigan. Electoral Votes from these states: Bush > 58, Kerry 38. > > We will update our master chart every day until Election Day with the > new data for each category of state. > > CATEGORY DATE STATES TOT EV BUSH KERRY TIED > Must Win 11 Oct 5 96 11 58 27 > Compensation 5 Oct 8 55 40 15 > Republican Cherries 6 Oct 5 44 44 > Democratic Plums 6 Oct 5 54 54 > Red States 7 Oct 18 142 142 > Blue States 8 10 147 147 > > Total 51 538 239 264 27 >
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