Kerry up by 5 in Ohio, AWOL "fading". Kerry ahead in FL (Washington Post)

[Proud2BAmurkin]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A32656-2004Oct14_4.html

[RobertSeattle]

1. I'm starting to smell the sweet taste of Victory in the air

Shrub better start working on his "Pardon" list. The rats are going to start blabbing anytime now. "I told Bush not to do X but he wouldn't listen", etc

[freetobegay]

7. To bad it has to be bitter sweet.

[gavodotcom]

12. They already are.

The CIA's already in full CYA mode. Goss was appointed just for 'lie with a smile' personality. He's pretty funny, actually. They hope his wit will deflect criticism away from the intelligence community.

McCain, Hagel, Luger, etc, are starting to distance themselves from the WAR as well.

Rumsfeld's come out against the intelligence, Bremer's come out against the war planning, Powell's come out on his underlings.

Republicans are imploding, as well they should. Kind of fun watching it on a small scale in Illinois, now we're watching it go out of control nationally.

And how they're dissenting is equally important. You can tell how terrible the mistakes have been when nobody could personally survive admitting their mistakes themselves. SecDef Rumsfeld blames intelligence, Bremer blames SecDef & SecState, etc.

And everyone who's getting blamed is blaming Kerry for voting for the war resolution.

Those who aren't distancing themselves from the leadership are going down, starting with President Bush down through DeLay.

I think what we're beginning to experience here is the beginning of the end of the neoconservative, and perhaps the theocratic takeover of conservativism.

When Kerry's in the White House, the last four years are going to make people sick. Bushites will be the new Nixon administration. They'll realize just how close they've come to fascism, and we'll see a progressive rebound. That's just the nature of the beast.

[Mojambo]

2. I just need to say

WAHHHHHOOOOOOOOOOO!

Okay, I'm done. Back to soul crushing negativity.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

4. LOL

.

[krkaufman]

10. And back to the GOTV effort.

http://actforvictory.org

Consider taking some vacation days on the 1st & 2nd, to help in the final push -- or maybe throw some spare change their way.

[fujiyama]

3. Great!

Several new polls have Kerry up in OH (some by very thin margins though).

I'm thinkin Kerry has a small advantage there...Now, FL..I haven't seen Kerry leading in a poll there for a while. Many showed Bush with a bounce after the hurricanes.

God, if Kerry does win both, I'm goin to be startin the party early that night. If he wins just OH, I'll be a bit more nervous becouse there is very little room for error. Kerry still MUST win at least two of WI, IA, and NM (I'm somewhat confident he'll take MN...the other three were all won by razor thin margins last time).

Of course my hope is Kerry can cushion himself with NV and CO as well. That would REALLY Kick ass!

[montana500]

6. the latest

arg and zogbys have kerry up in FL.

[regnaD kciN]

17. Unfortunately, that brings back some bad memories...

Several new polls have Kerry up in OH (some by very thin margins though).

I'm thinkin Kerry has a small advantage there...Now, FL..I haven't seen Kerry leading in a poll there for a while. Many showed Bush with a bounce after the hurricanes.

God, if Kerry does win both, I'm goin to be startin the party early that night.

In 2000, it was Pennsylvania, Florida, and Michigan. First Pennsylvania got projected for Gore. Then Florida. Finally, Michigan. I left work and headed home, ready to "start the party early." Then, about forty-five minutes later, just as I was driving up the last hill to Maple Valley, the PBS announcer comes on to report that "the Voters News Service has just withdrawn its projection of Florida for Gore." Talk about a party ending before it even started...

:-(

Seriously, I'd advise putting FL squarely in the Bush column, no matter what the polls say now. There's no way that Kerry will be allowed to win that state. and it would be wise for us to not count on those electoral votes in any projections we might make.

[fujiyama]

19. Very true

I'm expecting this election will be rife with corrution and fraud.

I'm expecting only the worst from FL, especially after hearing what Carter had to say about it weeks ago.

Also, another thing that worries me greatly is there is little room for error, meaning that Kerry must win just about all of Gore's states (WI, IA, and NM...all within 1% last time). I'm really pessimistic about the chances of winning without one of the big states. I know there will be problems with OH as well, but I'm hoping it will be fairer than FL.

It'll be a long night, if not a long few days. I do think that just like last time, we'll know by the end of the night that Kerry won the popular vote.

[The_Casual_Observer]

5. Has bush given up?

I think he probably has. If this trend continues it will be a landslide.
Imagine the huge swing in poll numbers since the rw convention. The reality of Iraq, Energy prices, Economy are too much for even the king of the bullshitters to gloss over.

[George_S]

8. No, Rove won't give up

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x78896

[gavodotcom]

13. Republicans won't let Bush 'give up.'

Odds are, Kerry will win by a respectable margin, not a landslide. EV will look better than pop. vote totals.

The reason for this is that the majority of Americans don't like to acknowledge the fact that they've made a mistake.

People who admit mistakes are few and far in between, especially mistakes that cause the deaths of tens of thousands of people, and over a thousand of our own Americans.

The fact that I believe Americans believe that the rest of the world doesn't "get it," proves that they don't get it themselves--and they don't want to. Thus the reason for countless rationales, none of which are entirely truthful. They don't have to be. They just have to be plausible. If you fling enough shit at a wall, some of it will stick. And that's all they need to prove to themselves that they're right.

"The genius of you Americans is that you never make clear-cut stupid moves, only complicated stupid moves which make us wonder at the possibility that there may be something to them -which- we are missing."

[cyr330]

9. THIS is the post I was looking for tonight

Thanks for the info. I already felt pretty good about how everything was going (not that I have any doubt about Kerry's ability, but I do have doubts about the average American's intelligence), but I was happy to read some good news. . .

[Bush was AWOL]

11. I've noticed Bush has been kind of abandoning Ohio

I've been saying it all along. Ohio is Kerry's. Bush has done too much damage to the people of this state to be awarded with their 20 EC points.

[Guaranteed]

14. If we win the big three, OH, Penn and FL, we won't

even need Iowa, Minnesota or NM. It'll be over.

[fujiyama]

20. Sorry

but even if Kerry wins OH, and assuming he wins MN and NH (bringing him to 262), he will still need WI(10 EVs), OR IA (7) and NM (5).

That's why I wouldn't start partying if OH is called for Kerry.

Oh damn I just read the big three. OH, FL, and PA...Yeah in that case it would be over, but I'm so worried that FL will be a mess.

[Forkboy]

21. Florida will be a clusterfuck

AGAIN :mad:

[RummyTheDummy]

15. Great news on Ohio but concern on Iowa, Wisconsin

Folks, the simplest way for Kerry to win this, the easiest path to victory, is to hold all the Gore states and win Ohio. I'm a little concererned about Iowa and Wisconsin.

[regnaD kciN]

22. I'm concerned about the whole thing!

It's not a good feeling to look at electoral-vote.com and see Bush at 284 EV to Kerry's 228 already (i.e., even if we win all the toss-ups, Bush still wins).

I will grant that a number of those projections are based on state polls from a week or more ago. Still, combining this with the recent nationwide polls, it seems that not only would it be possible for us to win the popular vote and lose the White House again, but it might even be possible for Kerry to win the popular vote by a far greater margin than Gore, and still lose the electoral vote in a near-landslide.

:scared:

[elcondor]

16. Ohio voter here

Just got my absentee ballot today--this is the first presidential election I'm voting in and I couldn't be more excited! Thanks for the news; I can go to bed now happy! :-)

EDIT: According to an e-mail from my congressperson, at a small town community college (!), Kerry gathered a crowd of 25,000 . . . the tide is turning, we've got to keep it up now!

It's still close and we've got to keep working!!

[Torgo Johnson]

18. If he is talking about Elyria,OH...

that would not be a small town. The population is somewhere around 55,000. We may not be Cleveland, or Canton for that matter, but combined with Lorain, we are a lot larger than other suburbs.


:) Who would this congressman be? I hope it is not Sherrod Brown, because he should know better.