IF Clark wins NH, it's over he will be the nominee

[jeter]

I have always had Clark as my number two and have never understood the hostility towards Dean. But I think that the wheels have come off the Dean train a little bit.

According to a new poll, Dean leads in New Hampshire with only 9%. In a clear second in General Wesley Clark. John Kerry trails Clark by 13% for second place.

I guess Kerry must be rethinking his anti-Dean campaign which completely derailed his candidacy.

Look people, I am a Dean supporter. But I hope fellow Dean supporters don't use Clark's recent surge in the polls as a reason to attack him. This would be just as bad as all the stupid attacks against Dean by the Washington three (kerry, Gephardt, and Lieberman).

I want an outsider to be the nominee. The only three I DEFINITELY DON'T WANT are Kerry, Gephardt and Lieberman. Dean is still my number one choice but Clark is number two.

Clark has always been a decent man, even if some of his supporters have been over the top. His position on the war was right. He has the gravitas and the message to take this whole thing.

Therefore, I hope Dean supporters don't pull a Kerry/Gephardt/Lieberman.

That said, I think if Clark pulls off a come from behind victory in New Hampshire. Which he can by offering a positive alternative to Bush and campaigning on his own record (are you listening Kerry supporters) he can pull off an upset.

If Dean and Kerry lose in New Hampshire - consider their candidacies dead on arrival.

[Jack_Dawson]

1. I think Dean has NH sewn up

But if it's close, it ain't good news for the Doctor.

[mikewriter]

11. NH is Dean's

Dean may lose Iowa but even with Clark surging the doctor will win in NH. Right on about how Dean shouldn't attack Clark. I'm sick of all the candidates attacking each other. This is not how we're going to beat Bush.

[Renew Deal]

28. If Dean loses Iowa to Gep

NH is up for grabs. If Kerry, then it will be tougher.

[burning bush]

27. Lets take this one state at a time

First, Iowa, then New Hampshire.

Clark may be doing better than he did previously, but it isn't at Dean's expense. Look at the numbers, its a tightening of the race, there will only be a few players left come Feb 3. Maybe only 2 or 3.

I guarantee you, of those 2 or 3, Dean will be the frontrunner.

Of course, Dean could sweep January holding double point leads in both states, then take rock through the early Feb states.

With all the shit shoveled at him as of late, I think that would be a pretty damn good sign that the guy was a powerful campaigner, and ready for the GE.

I warn everyone - continued rumors of a Dean implosion have been proven to be rash, and may painfully bite one in the ass if not given the proper burial :hurts:

[davidinalameda]

2. I don't think that Clark will win NH

just because he got a late start and Dean has been so active there

but I do think that he'll keep it close and will pull it out probably later than sooner

I don't think that Dean will get the nomination.

and I do see a Clark/Dean unity ticket like Reagan/Bush back in 1980

[windansea]

6. if Geppy wins Iowa

Dean may still win NH but not by much

[POed_Ex_Repub]

12. I hope Dean wins it...

But a Clark/Dean ticket wouldn't bother me at all.

[KaraokeKarlton]

31. I don't want my governor shaming himself by being on the same ticket as

the SOA supporting, military industry lobbyist Clark. No thanks. Let's not even consider dirtying the doctor's reputation like that. Dean is taking the nomination. If he doesn't, we may as well get used to having Bush 4 more years.

[Padraig18]

3. He's not going to win NH.

eom

[HFishbine]

4. What's wrong with Kerry? (nt)

[BootinUp]

10. other than a possible 3rd in Iowa and NH nothing.

[maddezmom]

5. I'm a Clark supporter

anything can happen, but I don't think it's likely. Hoping for #2. :)

[lib 4 all]

7. Yes, just ask President Tsongas and President McCain

[TacticalPeek]

17. Or President Buchanan, President Dukakis, President Hart, etc.

:)

[ClarkGraham2004]

42. Yes, thanks for explaining Clark's strategy.

He doesn't have to win NH to win it all.

[Clark Can WIN]

8. I hope so!

But' we'll just have to wait and see :-)

[arcos]

9. do you have a link to the poll? n/t

[Leilani]

13. I think Dean holds #1

As a Clark supporter, I hope he comes in solid #2.

Considering how long he has been a candidate, I think it would be terrific.

I believe if Kerry does not take 1st or 2nd in NH, he should drop out.
I don't think he could get much support in South or Midwest.

[jmaier]

14. If Clark

gets 20% or more, I'll be thrilled!

If he should win NH, though terribly unlikely, this race would still not be over -- Dean will fight it out all the way and he probably should. :-)

[Kahuna]

23. Yeah but... Dean sure would be humilated if Clark wins in NH...

I can dream can't I?

[Dookus]

15. I agree with most people here that it's extremely unlikely....

that Clark will win NH. The question is how close of a second place he can get. A strong showing would help immensely. I'd be thrilled if he got 25% and stayed with 6 points of Dean.

[Kahuna]

33. Unlikely? Yes. Possible? Yes. Probable? No.

But anything still can happen.

[TacticalPeek]

16. I hope not . . . (I think).

I'd rather he finish second, behind 1 or 2 points.

The delegate count would be not that significant, and the NH winner seems to carry somewhat of a jinx.

:shrug:

[kayleybeth]

18. New Hampshire

will almost certainly go to Dean. I'm hoping Clark will come in a strong second and have some momentum going into February 3.

[CWebster]

19. Wesley claimed he would've voted for IWR,

advised a congresswoman to vote for IRW, citing Saddam's links to Al Queda, for starters - caught on videotape. Clark anti-Dean operatives might try to ignore it, but progressives won't.

[Kahuna]

24. zzzzzzzzzzzzzz

:boring:




:evilgrin:

[MoonRiver]

29. ditto

Wake me up when they grow tired of the same ole same ole.

:boring:

[Kahuna]

34. LOL!

:yourock:

[jsw_81]

20. Nope

If Clark should win New Hampshire (fat chance) it will become a Clark vs. Edwards contest.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

21. Yes - you are right. That's Deans backyard. And a must-win for Kerry

n/t

[Kahuna]

22. Uh huh...Sure you have Jeter.. So all of a sudden, Clark's your #2!!!!

As the Church Lady would say, How CON-VEEEN-IENT! }(

[maddezmom]

26. gotta love the church lady :)

[MoonRiver]

25. I think it's a distinct possibility.

He's come so far, against all the odds, in such a small amount of time. Clark has always been a winner, and his current presidential race gives no indication that anything is different now.

Here's a big :kick: for General Clark!!!

[Kahuna]

35. It's still Dean's to lose. And he's just one or two more gaffes away..

from being abandoned by the "normals."

[MoonRiver]

39. I'm gonna predict right here on DU

that Dean will make it to GAFFE OVERLOAD status!

Goooooooooooooooooo General Clark!!!!!!!!!

:kick:

[Kahuna]

44. ROTF!

He'd have to make it two weeks gaffe-free. I don't think he can do it either. :evilgrin:

[KaraokeKarlton]

30. Clark isn't going to win NH

And Kerry's about to start attacking the bejesus out of Clark. Clark has some really nasty, nasty skeletons in his closet that are coming to light. Kerry will have lots of ammunition, that's for sure. Clark isn't even running in Iowa, so he gets no momentum from there at all. Kerry will have a good showing in Iowa and it will give him some good press and momentum going into NH. Lieberman actually has quite a bit of support in NH as well. It's going to be a 3 way battle for 2nd between Kerry, Clark and Lieberman...with all 3 of them competing for the same votes. Dean's NH support is firmest of all candidates and Clark's is the least firm. With the press on Clark that's going to come out, many NH voters who want an alternative to Dean are going to vote for Kerry or Lieberman instead. Even if Clark got all the undecided left, he would still only tie Dean for the lead in the polls. Polls aren't accounting for the many, many new voters Dean has brought into play. NH is going to Dean all the way.

[Kathleen04]

32. I think that Clark..

should be able to close the gap between him and Dean. Winning NH sure would make things interesting.

If Dean were to lose to Gep in IA and to Clark in NH..he WOULD NOT be finished and I think he would come back with a vengance. It's possible that we may actually want him to win those..or at least one.

Clark really should be setting his sights on those February 3rds as his breaking away from the pack point.

[MoonRiver]

36. The times they are a changing, day by day.

The most important thing for the sake of every living thing, LITERALLY, is to oust *. I'd like to see him in the Hague, but I'll settle for removal from his ill begotten White House.

[Clark4VotingRights]

37. Thanks for a civil post jeter

Let's not raise expectations too high however.
Clark's been in the race four months and his progress is astounding.
If he came in second in NH it'd be astounding, and great (in my view).

After that, I care most about the southern vote.

[nancyharris]

38. If it is all over by the NH primary (no matter who wins),

then there is something definitely wrong with the primary system.

[MoonRiver]

43. Yes, that is unacceptable in a democracy.

The whole country should be able to vote on the same day for the presidential primaries. Trouble is, the system is rigged for those with money, who can continue the fight after the first few states vote. That's how our political system operates, and that's exactly what's WRONG with our country.

[DjTj]

40. Kerry or Edwards will have momentum from Iowa...

...and pick off a few of Clark's supporters. Not running in Iowa will hurt him in the headlines that week. There really isn't much more that Clark can really do; his only chance at winning NH is Dean shooting himself in the foot somehow.

[stickdog]

41. The nomination is now Clark's to lose. (nt)

[dfong63]

45. i disagree

first off, it is likely that Dean will win both IA and NH. but if he doesn't, he can still be competitive. he still has the strongest campaign organization and has been running a truly national campaign. Dean is showing strength in the south that has surprised the naysayers. i say Dean does not have to win either in order to stay in the game.

as far as Clark winning NH - listen to what his own supporters have said, downplaying the importance of the state whenever the polls show Dean on top. it's no more important to Dean than it is to Clark.

[RetroLounge]

46. I would almost love to see Kucinich or Braun

surprise (most) everyone and win Iowa and New Hampshire.

Then the group of us supporters would be in for a mind re-arrangement, don't you think?

[ShaneGR]

47. Clark doesn't NEED to win NH, just a strong 2nd

Because it will be "above expectations" and the media will jump on it in preparation for the southern primaries....

[neverforget]

48. I think you're right about the media playing up a strong 2nd by

Clark. I also think that NH is going to be very close regardless of Iowa.