I like these guys at ARG...

[TruthIsAll]

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

All voters Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar

Bush 44% 45% 45% 44% 45% 44% 43% 42%
Kerry 47% 46% 49% 47% 46% 45% 48% 48%
Nader 2% 3% 2% 3% 3% 4% 2% 2%
Undec 7% 6% 4% 6% 6% 7% 7% 8%

1005 registered voters, October 2-4,
MOE ± 3 percentage points

[Eric J in MN]

1. I'd ratther see Kerry with a 10 point lead (nt)

nt

[PROGRESSIVE1]

2. Nice to see that JKs ahead. I hope that todays Zogby tracking poll....

is only an outlier and nothing else.

[Doosh]

3. NICE!

[Awsi Dooger]

4. I've been mentioning nothing but ARG polls here for weeks

In sampling their state polls all year, this firm knows what it's doing. Always an identical (600 voters) sample and intelligently weighted based on the likely partisan breakdown of the state. Plus you never get wild swings. This country is evenly divided and polarized with very few undecideds, so how can we pay attention to polls that suggest massive short-term moves one way or another?

Obviously, not every state will break 39% Democrat, 36% Republican and 25% Indpependent. That will be the likely national figure. ARG understands that, while some pollsters try to cram the same generic numbers into their formula regardless of the politics of a given state.

[deadparrot]

5. Does anyone remember how reliable ARG was in 2000?

[speedoo]

6. The shrub is never above 45%.

That means he cannot win, because 60-75% of the undecided always go to the challenger.

[Jasper 91]

7. Here's a list of all the pollsters

Showing how good , or bad , they are . I agree that ARG is probably more accurate than most . Their very consistancy demonstrates the true breakdown of America , as how many people do you know who change their opinion every week ?

http://tis.goringe.net/pop/scatter.html

[TruthIsAll]

8. If you believe ARG (47-44-2), and I do, its Kerry (52-46-2)

That's because Kerry gets 5 of the other 7 undecided and Bush 2, assuming Nader et al keep 2.

52-46. Sounds like a solid electoral vote win.

Bush is stuck on the 46th floor.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/