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Believe me, I'm the strongest Kerry supporter you could ever meet. However, I'm going to give you my most objective analysis of the state polling data that I can.
No one would like to see a Kerry landslide more than me. For the purpose of this exercise, I will give you my most Conservative estimate, as I see it. Feel free to disagree if you wish, but remember, this is what I truly believe is Kerry's worst case scenario, but a possibility none the less.
Here are the states that I think are solid Bush: Alab, Alas, Geo, Id, Ind, Ks, Kent, Louis, Miss, Mo, Mont, Neb, NC, ND, Ok, SC, SD, Tenn, Tx, Ut, Virg, Wym.
Here are the solid states for Kerry: Cal, Conn, Del, D.C., Hi, ILL, Me, Md, Mass, NJ, NY, Ore, RI, Vt, Wash.
Here are the swing states I think Bush will carry, and why: Arizona (Too much John McCain, and it seems already conceded by Kerry), Arkansas (Close, but the guns and patriotic jingoism is too much to overcome), Colorado (This is closer than I could have thought, but my instinct is that it is too Repuke for us to pull it out), Florida (It breaks my heart to place it here, and I hope that I am wrong. The hurricanes and the resulting publicity for the Bush brothers are a lot to overcome, as well as the other side's ability to cheat) Wisconsin (I hope I'm wrong here, but all the polls are leaning this way) West Virginia (I still can't believe a state that is so poor and dependent on labor unions can vote for Bush, but every poll I see gives it to Bush. I guess bull shit can overcome common sense)
Kerry's Swing States: Iowa (We will take this, the polling data here has been just great from all sources), Michigan (This state is very close to the first tier of safe Kerry, and we will win by more than 5%), Minnesota (this is closer than it ought to be, but in the end, I think it's ours), Nevada (this will be a surprise by a larger than expected margin. Many new voters, and anger at being lied to by Bush on Yucca Flats). New Hampshire (First hand knowledge, this state is being worked hard by Mass residents for Kerry, as well as Deaniacs from VT). New Mexico (we will win here by nearly 8 points), Pennsylvania (Teresa in Pittsburgh, and the Dems in Philadelphia, as well as a very popular and politically savvy Governor Ed Randell will pull this out by about 4 points)
So, if I'm correct, for those of you keeping score at home, here's the total. Bush 259 Electoral Votes to Kerry 259 Electoral Vote.
The only state not listed above is Ohio. In 2000, Gore lost Ohio by about 3% after pulling out with 3 weeks to go. Ohio has lost 1/4 of all the jobs lost in the entire country. Cleveland has more poverty than any major city in the United States. More folks here have lost health insurance than any other state in the nation. The average income has taken the second biggest hit behind only Michigan. Ohio has a strong, angry union base, and a huge, angry minority population. There is absolutely no reason to think we can't win here.
So, in the end, we'll be waiting until 2:00 AM to hear the call for Ohio. If I had to guess, my guess is that it's Kerry. That's how it looks to me today, that's just my opinion as of 10/15.
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