Rasmussen and Zogby Show Trend Toward Kerry

[louis c]

Rasmussen and Zogby tracking numbers are exactly the same today. Both have Bush up by 2 points.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com

http://www.zogby.com

However, the data behind the numbers is quite significant. Rasmussen has a 7 day tracking of 16 battleground states. They are Fla, Penn, Ohio, Mich, Mo, Wisc, Arz, Minn, Oreg, Iowa, Ark, Nev, NM, WV, ME, and NH.

In these key states, Kerry holds a 2 point lead, erasing a 2 point Bush lead over the last week. Each day in the last week in this group, Kerry increased his polling number. Each day in the week, Bush's number decreased.

In favorable and unfavorable, the same result. Each day Bush's favorable went down, while his unfavorable went up. Kerry's was a mirror image, increasing his favorable while decreasing his unfavorable in these 16 crucial states.

Here are the numbers. on 10/11 Bush was ahead of Kerry in these 16 states 48.0%-46.0% . Today Kerry leads 48.1%-46.2%.

Favorable for Bush on 10/11 was 52.7% and his unfavorable was 46.3%
(+6.4). Today it is Favorable 51.7% and his unfavorable is 47.4% (+4.3)

Favorable for Kerry in these states on 10/11 was 51.1% and his unfavorable was 47.4% (+3.7). Today it is Favorable 53.3% and his unfavorable is down to 45.4% (+7.9).

That's a net swing between the two candidates of of 6.3% in Kerry's favor over the last week.

As far as Zogby is concerned, his tracking today also shows a trend toward Kerry. In his polling, he shows a 4 point Bush lead reduced to 2 points today. In fact, his polling for today only has Kerry up 2 points. Tomorrow, a big 4 point Bush bounce 3 days ago will be replaced by new numbers. If tomorrow shows the same trend as today, don't be surprised if Kerry doesn't pull ahead in Zogby's tracking.

You see, you have to read tracking polls differently than the snapshot versions. You have to depict the trends, and right now, it's all Kerry.

In another note, I am surprised at how many folks are upset with the Bush administration over the flu shot problem. Everyone is angry and upset, and taking it out on him. This may just be the "October Surprise" that drives the election.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

1. It's good to see these results.

Oh ya, and FUCK Gallup!!! :puke:

[louis c]

2. kick

[sonicx]

3. what i don't understand about Zogby's polling is...

why he finds that so many democrats are voting for bush? The internals of most other polls has Kerry's dem support at 85% or above, but Zogby finds it ususally in the high 70s or low 80s. :shrug:

[louis c]

4. It must be something in his method

I also notice that the president and Kerry's favorable are much lower in Zogby than Rasmussen.

It could be in the manner he asks the question. However, Zogby's undecideds (7%) are higher than most polls, and this is a good sign for us.

Rasmussen, on the other hand has far fewer undecideds (3%). I believe it is in the questioning.

However, the spread between the candidates couldn't be closer to the same, including individual state polling data.

[DaveinMD]

5. that's down

to 12 percent. One bad day in the rolling track warped the sample.

[Nicholas_J]

14. This greatly varies between ZOgby's tracking and regular polls

In his regular polls, they use a technique to weed out voters who may be representing themselves as being democrats or republicans that is not used in his tracking polls.

Remember during the run for the candidacy. Zogby's polling numbers between the candidates most importantly between Kerry and Dean showed small gaps between the two for ages. Showing only two or three points between Dean and Kerry when other polls like ARG were showing much larger differences once Kerry started leading.

Where Zogby was correct was in his analysis that Kerry would beat Dean in Iowa.

He has recently stated that the race is Kerry's to lose, and that all things remaining as they are
that Kerry would be the likely winner.

[mzmolly]

6. If the election is honest, and nothing significant happes between now and

November 2nd, I think it's ours.

[City Lights]

7. Can you share any specifics about Arizona, louis c?

I don't always post in your daily polling threads, but I do read them every day and very much appreciate them. ;-)

[louis c]

10. I don't have any current info on Arizona

Rasmussen has it leaning to Bush, so that means it is more than 5 points, but less than ten. However, I don't think he's released any numbers on them in over a month.

[City Lights]

13. Thanks, louis c.

The last poll I saw had bush up by 5, which was closer than the previous poll I'd seen, so at least we're closing the gap.

[WI_DEM]

8. I always look forward to your report every day, Louis

[senseandsensibility]

9. Thanks Louis

You help us to stay positive, and I really appreciate it.

[louis c]

11. Kick for Doosh

[Doosh]

12. it certainly looks encouraging

but I'm still a little bit shaken up by the newsweek/gallup onslaught over the past 2 days, eventually kerry has to start pulling away everywhere. There is absolutely no rhyme or reason for Bush to be far ahead in any poll.

[louis c]

15. How about if they just lie

Gallup doesn't need to be right this time. He has earned his credibility over time. He's using that credibility to pay back the Bushes. He did it in 2000, and he's doing it now.

If he loses this one, he'll take a hit, but he'll survive.

Rasmussen has to get it right. He can't miss his first two and stay in business.

To make myself clear, Gallup is the most unreliable of all the pollsters. They have an agenda, and not much to lose.

[DuaneBidoux]

16. But again, look at the Gallup polls from 2000

They were all F**ked up.

[Doosh]

18. but at the end they started to tighten up

Gore's surge was so great that not even they could ignore it.

[bush equals idiot]

17. Do we still have the 10% lead in the battleground states with undecideds?

If so, that's the ballgame right there.