Monday Zogby polling shows "kerry on fire"; Potential for 4-way race.

[flpoljunkie]

Pollster John Zogby:  “Another big day for John Kerry. In Monday’s polling alone, the score is Dean, 27%, Gephardt, 22%, Kerry, 20%, and Edwards, 16%.  It looks like Edwards is starting to see a post endorsement bounce.  Meanwhile, Kerry has been on fire two days in a row.  While Dean continues to lead, this has the potential to be a 4-way race. 

“There are doubts about Dean.  One in seven (14%) of likely caucus voters feel it’s unlikely that any Democrat currently in the race could beat President Bush, but 3 in 10 have doubts about Dean’s ability to win. 

“All four top candidates are highly regarded among voters, and we’ve seen the
undecideds take a 2-point drop to 12%.”

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=778

[Halle]

1. Not just regarding Iowa,

if Clark and Dean keep going at it (at least their supporters), the powers will push for Kerry and he may just succeed. He wouldn't be a bad choice, IMO.

[sandnsea]

15. The Powers??

The Clintons are for Clark, the anti-Clintons are for Dean, the unions are for Gephardt. Kerry, Edwards and Kucinch are fighting this out completely on their own from the grassroots up. Where in the hell do the Powers come into this?

[Leilani]

16. I think he would be terrible

Dean & Clark have real grassroots supporters..

Kerry is losing in New England; where can he win?

He should spend less time trashing Clark, & more time going after Bush.

[Monte Carlo]

2. Go Kerry, go!

Down, but not out. Kerry has what it takes to beat Bush and lead the Democrats out of their rut and into the next 4 years.

[nightperson]

3. Thanks for the good news!

With 12% undecided, plus the margin of error, Kerry could be the Iowa front-ruuner at this very moment. Prove me wrong. Please, everyone, of course do what you think is best, but please at least take a moment to reconsider Kerry. Please take a look down that loooooooong road that awaits us after the primaries. I've never said Kerry is God. I do think he is the most qualified, he is the most likely in the long run to win, and while I support whoever the eventual nominee is, I really don't want to have to work my !&8#!& off to get rid of Bush. :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :smoke:

[Native]

4. Thought I saw another post on the Zogby with Kerry @ 17%

Has anyone else stopped receiving e-mails from Kerry's campaign? I haven't rec'd one in days.

[WiseMen]

5. Carefull Reading of Zogby show that the 17% "Tracking #" trails 20% Daily

Interesting for prospects. But the get-out-the caucus org is what
really matters.

Dean has an army out there and Gephart has some strong Union guys.

Does anyone know what Kerry's get-out-the-vote organization is like?

[sandnsea]

10. Veterans, Firefighters, Legislators, and lots more

We're doing great, I'm not worried about the organization at all.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

6. A perfect muddle. all within 5 or 6 points

Iowa will simply move the same battleground to NH, except then Clark will be there.

[Raya]

12. Not if Dean's 5000 Volunteers Get his voters to the polls.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

7. The momentum is good

big question is whether Edwards can capitalize on the DM Register endorsement. My uninformed guess is that a lot of undecided are mostly undecided about which alternative to Dean to pick.

[joefree1]

8. You're forgeting the good news for Dean

Released: January 13, 2004
A 3-Way, Bordering on a 4-Way Race in Iowa; Another Big Day for Kerry; Dean's Lead Widens to 5 Points Over Gephardt, According to New Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby Poll

Former Vermont Governor Dr. Howard Dean has expanded his lead over Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt in Iowa caucus polling, 28%-23%, according to the new Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby Poll.
More ...
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=778

Congratulations to Kerry folk too.


Images from Dean Rocks the House of Blues, Hollywood
From wtmusic http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=919849
From Joefree1 http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=921300

[cally]

9. This is getting fun

I'm a political junkie and noone can guess who will win. :bounce: It's so unpredictable. :-)

[cindyw]

11. You can bet that if Zogby has Kerry at 20% he will be closer to 25% in

other polls. Zogby consistently has Kerry lower than other polls. But he also does the same for Dean so, go figure. What is so fascinating is that Gephardt's numbers stay exactly the same no matter who does the poll. To me that says that each polling company has a certain way of determining who will participate. They alll agree who will show up for Gep, but are fuzzy on Kerry and Dean. I think that if Zogby shows Kerry gaining even with his methods that underestimate the voters who other companies feel will show up for Kerry, then Gephardt is in trouble with Kerry on his heals.

[WiseMen]

13. Big question is Org to bring out People to Caucus. Is Kerry Org. Ready

[Democratista]

14. I say this could mean that the major 6 could still remain after NH

And I would also include Sharpton

[Adjoran]

17. It is hard to gauge polls in Iowa

The caucuses are totally different from primaries. It isn’t only that participants can’t run by and vote, and have to go out on a Monday night and sit through hours before the voting process – which takes a while itself – even begins. They don’t just count votes.

Each candidate’s supporters stand together at first. If their total number is 15% or more of the attendees at the caucus, their candidate will get at least one delegate to the state convention. Anyone with less in the precinct doesn’t. That’s where it gets interesting. Those who support candidates with less than 15% can join one of the other groups to increase their representation.

As an example, say in a given precinct Dean has 28%, Gephardt 23%, Kerry 17%, Edwards 14%, with the other 18% divided between the other candidates and uncommitted (yes, that is a choice too). Only the top three qualify for delegates, BUT suppose the Edwards supporters and others decide to join the Kerry group. All of a sudden, Kerry has 49% and wins the caucus and half the delegates.

With the great organization the candidates have put together this year, and cell phones, their headquarters will know how each caucus is going, and be able to communicate with other campaigns and horse-trade votes in different precincts. This is the first year this will be a real phenomenon: there hasn’t been a race with multiple contenders since the proliferation of cell phones.

So polls mean nothing, unless they tell you how likely the person is to actually show up, AND who his or her second or third choice might be. Anything can happen. It’s the most excitement ever in an Iowa caucus, by a long shot.

[aldian159]

18. Thanks for the info

even if it does deflate my bubble, the real story is the right one.

[IndianaGreen]

19. Edwards has run a clean and honorable campaign

and he is the only of the pro-IWR candidates to generate respect even among those that disagree with him on the war.

I hope Edwards beats Kerry in Iowa!