Top 35 Trends that say Kerry will take the White House in November

[WI_DEM]

1) Bush Must lead by 4% (Professor Alan of the Emerging Democratic Majority shows that Bush mjust go into November 2 with an average of at least a 4% lead...

2) The Cell Phone polling Phenomenon--Traditional polling relies almost exculsively on landline telephone. As much as 18% of the electorate don't have land lines and instead rely exclusively on cell phones. 14.4% of cell phone users were single Americans between the ages of 18-24 living in mostly urban areas--Kerry demographics.

3) Zogby is teh most accurate pollster--and he keeps saying that the race is "Kerry's to lose."

4) Kerry has large lead in swing states: Kerry is doing extremely well where it matters, leading Bush by 10% in swing states according to Wshington Post.

5) Seniors favor Kery--also among registered voters in a 3-way matchup, seniors favor Kerry over Bush by a large margin...

6) Kerry appeals to Independents in the debates: polls showed that Kerry gained favor from swing voters as a result of his performance.

7) Kerry appeals to Independents period--In polling, self-proclaimed independents favor Kerry by 11-points.

8) PA goes to Kerry: Pa is NOT in play--tat leaves Ohio and Florida as the next targets.

9) New Standard for GOTV: GOTV efforts were allocated $25 million by teh DNC in the 2000 election. This year they will commit about hte same, the difference, however, comes with a new 527 called America Coming Together, a group that will be devoting at least $125 million twoard the GOTV effort.

10) Democrats Won the Registration Wars--Voter registration have heavily favored the Dem party this cycle...

11) Kerry erased doubts about himself--through the debates.

12) Bush Increased doubts about himself--thorugh the debates...

13) Ralph Nader--Nader is less of an issue this year,...

14) Howard Dean--The Dean Revolution has given rise to a new generation of Democratic voters and activists...

15) Michael Moore--the Moore effect and his film Fahrenheit 911 have had a signficiant impact...

For complete list go to:
http://www.politicalstrategy.org/archives/000580.php

[Cha]

1. Yay! Dean is a Factor!

We couldn't be without any of these "Trends"!


EDIT~to say..I love this site, thanks, WI Dem!

It's fun to see lined up exactly what is helping us :kick:

[wryter2000]

2. Dean is the rudder

Dean turned the whole thing around. I'm convinced now that Kerry was the right candidate, but imho, we never would have gotten away from Bush-lite without Dean.

[coalition_unwilling]

6. If Dean is the rudder, Moore is the oarsman . . .

Remember Moore's acceptance speech at the 2003 Oscars? I believe when historians look back, they will trace the emergence of anti-Bush sentiment into the mainstream and its acceptability therein to Moore's speech (which came before Iraqnam officially commenced).

[wryter2000]

9. Right you are

Good point :yourock:

[Cha]

5. Yes, we needed every single element

and Kerry is the man but thank God for Dean leading the way when he did!

[ugarte]

3. Is Wisconsin safe for Kerry?

What's the latest?

[WI_DEM]

4. ARG has a tie

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

[PartyPooper]

7. Don't forget Kitty Kelley!

Her book, "The Family", certainly has helped the Dems, too!

:D

[ROH]

8. The *majority* of cell-phone users...

Thanks for this list. Very interesting.

A correction to point 2. You wrote:
"14.4% of cell phone users were single Americans between the ages of 18-24 living in mostly urban areas--Kerry demographics."

In fact, the list at:
http://www.politicalstrategy.org/archives/000580.php reads:
"Of the 970 people questioned, 14.4 percent were cell-phone-only users, the majority of whom were single Americans between the ages of 18 and 24, living in mostly urban areas." - Kerry demographics.

This is a strong and important comment ... the *majority* of cell-phone-only users are in that demographic group.