My Call: Dean would lose 312 to 226 to Bush (46%-52% in the pop. vote)

[bluestateguy]

I've got my flame suit on...

The Dean as McGovern analogies are faulty. Dean would be a far more aggressive candidate than McGovern, Carter, Mondale or Dukakis. He would benefit slightly from a partial coming home of the Nader voters. Though, as we have seen from this board, Dean is insufficiently Leftist for some people, and some of them will still insist on voting Green. On the one hand, Dean could really begin the long-term process of revitalizing the Left in this country, which is why I think the Goldwater analogy is far better. Goldwater's campaign was probably the most significant losing campaign in the 20th century, as it revitalized the American Right and began the onward march of the South into the Republican Party. Dean could do the same for the Left, given the energy his supporters have for him and the way he has been able to build a grass roots movement. Still, this country is not yet ready for a liberal northern Democrat to be president.

I see Dean winning comfortably in Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, DC and Delaware. He should eek out victories in Pennslyvania and Maine, but I think he would lose New Hampshire. I don't see Dean winning in West Virginia or Ohio. I think the Dean campaign will contest the South until October when they see that their efforts (save for Florida) are not going anywhere. Then they will pull out of the South, except for Florida, a state I think Dean would lose by about 3 points. Elsewhere in the South I think Dean would be slaughtered. Dean will squeak by with a win in Michigan, win Illinois by 5 or 6 points, get detroyed in Indiana and lose Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota by narrow margins. I think Missouri is a no as well. The Plains states? Moving on... I think Dean would prevail narrowly in New Mexico and lose Nevada narrowly. The rest of the Mountain West is gone. California would vote for Dean, but I think he would have to campaign there to win it. The same can be said for Washington state, though I think Bush would be at an advantage in Oregon. Alaska and Hawaii would vote as they always do in presidential elections.

So no, it would not be a landslide, but there are no points for second place, and we need a more electable candidate.

[cthrumatrix]

1. no flame -- your wrong -- bush is toast --- READ the O'Neill book first

you have no idea of what will result...i'm 1/2 way through (and a Dean supporter)...from what I have read thus far --


3-4 candidates would beat bush...this book makes him look like a fool

[Brian_Expat]

2. As I said before, it's time to vote with your head not your heart as Dems

Joe Lieberman is the only Dem candidate who is realistic on foreign policy. He's no perfect but I have reconciled my conscience to supporting him based upon his stance on gay issues and other matters of importance to me as someone who values defeating Bush wholeheartedly.

[eileen from OH]

11. Brian, I want to be real gentle here

but if Joe isn't even breaking into double digits in most of the polls I don't think your argument about his "electability" has a lot of traction.

And you have it wrong - you vote your heart in the primary and your head in the general election.

eileen from OH (or are you just funnin' with us?)

[windansea]

3. subtract California

you could be right

[Zinnola]

4. speculation, speculation and more speculation

You are a Clark supporter so OBVIOUSLY you are trying to sway others that Dean won't win. Well, IMHO Clark cannot win.

[Cha]

5. How totally defeatist!

Dean will win and bush will slither back to crawford to be with his rattlers.

[hellhathnofury]

6. I'm not sure if they've been told that the Dem part is ABB.

You can't win without optimism.

[Walt Starr]

7. I think your numbers are more in line with how Clark would do

Dean would do much worse, IMO.

The only electable candidate is Joe Lieberman.

[ACPS65]

8. I'm shocked....

Shocked...

[PROGRESSIVE1]

9. Clark would do much worse???

:wtf: are you talking about??? Clark is strong on defense, socially moderate/tolerant, and fiscally conservative. He would win the military vote too. What is it with you Lieberman people.

I am not sure if I would even vote for Lieberman against Bush on defense/foreign policy alone.

Lieberman gives me no reason to vote.

[Brian_Expat]

10. Clark is out of the mainstream on terror and the Iraq War

A majority of Americans support the Iraq War, which means Clark is unelectable by campaigning against it, in my opinion.

[atre]

12. If Joe is nominated, few Dems will bother to vote

Count me among them. As far as I'm concerned, Lieberman is no Democrat.

[hellhathnofury]

13. Joe will win 53%-47%. We're going to teach him about morals.

This one counts.