About the polls: explain something to me...

[Rex_Goodheart]

How is it that Zogby can poll just 1200 or so individuals, and from that give us meaningful poll numbers in every state? 40 or 50 people per state is enough for valid polls? No wonder there are wild swings from day to day, state to state.

Or do I have the methodology all wrong?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. He's Polling 600 People Per State...

Polling is based on inferential statistics...

[Rex_Goodheart]

2. Thanks, DemSinceBirth...

I guess I could have explored his site. Forgive my laziness.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. It's OK...

And there are lots of good sites that will explain the science behind polling


do a google search...

[jody]

7. "Polling is based on inferential statistics" or "infernal statistics"? n/t

[diamond14]

4. Michael Moore said it best....

"the polls are all over the place, like diarrhea"



there is no sense to the polls at all....just reTHUGlicans using polls to pretend that their idiot is winning....the pollsters are getting TONS of reTHUGlican money to prepare bush* polls...they LOVE the money....it's all just nonsense at this point...just ignore all polls and GO VOTE......

[troubleinwinter]

5. "Lies, damn lies and statistics"

[SheilaT]

6. You're going to need to check

with a statistician, but a properly selected poll of 1200 individuals can be extremely accurate.

And that's why the margin of error exists, which is really called a confidence level. It means you are 95 or 99 or whatever percent certain that if you poll this number of people again, you will get the same results.

Statistics was the single most interesting class I ever took.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Thank You...

Tell them when they test your blood they take a small sample they don't drain you....

[jody]

9. The key is "a properly selected poll of 1200 individuals" and cell phones

and other factors raise many questions about the efficacy of the samples used by polls that rely upon phones.

[Spazito]

10. Statistical polling USED to be somewhat accurate but no longer...

the phone polls rely solely on land lines and that is an ever increasing deficit to accuracy. There are more young adults with cell only contacts that are not within the configurations of the current polls as well as the factor of call display. Call display allows those of us with that option to ignore the incoming call as it looks exactly like a telemarketer.

In the last election in Canada, the polls were way off and the factors I have mentioned in the above paragraph are some of the reasons why.

Polling organizations are going to have to re-calibrate their rationalizations if they hope to get "back in the game" and regain their credibility, imo.