Jan 13: HD 24, Gep 21, JK 21 JE 15; Dec 11: HD 42 Gep 23, JK 15, JE 10

[cryofan]

from
http://www.whotv.com/global/story.asp?s=1561341&ClientType=Printable
>>>>>>>>>>>
Des Moines, December 11, 2003 -

Our Survey USA poll showed Dean up ten percentage points over Kick Gephardt the day before the announcement.

Look at what happened afterwards. His lead jumps significantly. 42 percent of the likely caucus goers now support Dean for the democratic nomination. 23 percent support Gephardt.

While John Kerry finishes third with 15 percent. And John Edwards comes in fourth with 10 percent.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>


Today's Jan 13 Zogby poll is:
Dean 24, Gep 21, Kerry 21, Edwards 15 - latest

But the December 11 poll from above was:
Dean 42 Gephardt 23, Kerry 15, John Edwards 10 percent.


Can anyone here give possible reasons for Dean's precipitous slide in the polls? How does a 42 to 23-15-10 point lead for Dean go to a 24 to21-21-15 point lead? In just one month!?

[SheilaT]

1. I can certainly think of several possibilities.

One is that the polls are absolutely accurate and the numbers reflect a real change in support of Howard Dean.

More likely, in my opinion, as the caucus date draws nearer, and as more information is out there about all the candidates, people rethink their support. Maybe all the negative press, the constant slamming of Dean by all the other candidates is having an effect. Do you think?

[LuminousX]

2. Historical Trend

Polling gaps always narrow the closer the actual voting gets. The only real news is if one candidate overtakes another.

[TreasonousBastard]

3. More'n likely was there all along.

Aside from two different polling organizations with different criteria, polls often change as you get closer to the event. The blizzard of information and attacks in the last few weeks does tend to inform people about stuff they haven't yet heard. They're taking a closer look and not giving the glib ansers they gave a month ago.

No early front runner should take anyrhing for granted.

Besides, back in December people were more interested in the holidays than politics.

[HFishbine]

4. FACT CHECK

The original post incorrectly reports today's Zogby numbers (The lack of a link is always a red flag).

The correct numbers are:

Dean: 28
Gephardt: 23
Kerry: 17
Edwards: 14
Kucinich: 3
Clark: 2
Liberman: 1
Moseley Braun: 1

Undecided: 12

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=778

[KC21304]

5. If that makes you happy keep believing it, but

I too saw those numbers, 24, 21,21, 15, on CNN and MSNBC this morning. Sorry no link. Will wait for a link before I start celebrating.

[David Dunham]

6. The 28 for Dean is Yesterday's Zogby Number

The 28 for Dean is the January 13 number. He lost 4 points and is now at only 24 today.

[cryofan]

10. here is the link; it shows Dean at 24

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3955666/

[stickdog]

7. You can't compare different polls.

The methodology is completely different.

[David Dunham]

8. Dean's Lead Is Melting Away

From January 13 to January 14, Zogby has Dean dropping a full 4 points from 28 to 24 percent in Iowa.

[markburgess]

9. the first poll was taken December 11th, Saddam was captured December 14th

That may have something to do with it. Dean has been under harsher attack and has been slipping ever since.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

11. It's a plot by Karl Rove - I tell ya

n/t