A Democratic cliffhanger? (proportional delagates=no clear winner)

[papau]

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/president/articles/2004/01/14/a_democratic_cliffhanger/

ROBERT KUTTNER
A Democratic cliffhanger? By Robert Kuttner, 1/14/2004

<snip>...A persistent field. Several also-rans will doubtless drop out after a few primaries. But the first few primaries could well splinter and give five or six candidates a reason to stay in through March 2 (Super Tuesday), by which time 2,046, or nearly half, the delegates will have been chosen (and splintered).

Flukey front-loading. The Democrats keep trying to front-load the primary process, so that the party unites behind a nominee early and the in-fighting ceases in February rather than July. But this year, front-loading could backfire.

Howard Dean could narrowly win the first two contests, Iowa (45 delegates) on Jan. 19 and New Hampshire (22) on Jan. 27, but not get the necessary momentum to produce an aura of inevitability. These first two events are low-delegate states. The next primary day, Feb. 3, with a a total of 269 delegates at stake, will produce very different headlines.

South Carolina's 45 delegates selected that day will likely be shared by Wesley Clark, Al Sharpton, and John Edwards. In Missouri, with 74 votes, local boy Dick Gephardt will surely come out on top. Oklahoma, with 40 delegates, will be a good state for Clark. New Mexico (26) is Dean territory, but larger Arizona next door (55) could split several ways.

Barring a dramatic change in the dynamics of the race, by Feb. 3 Dean will likely be slowed, but momentum will not shift decisively to Clark (or anyone else). Any of three candidates, Clark, Gephardt, or Dean, could be narrowly leading in the delegate count. Kerry, Edwards, Sharpton, even Kucinich will all have some delegates too.
The longer more than two candidates stay in, the less likely it is that the nominee will emerge early. Kerry has just mortgaged his house. He is picking up some steam in Iowa. Unless Kerry is totally disgraced in New Hampshire, he stays in through March 2, waiting for lightning to strike. Likewise Edwards. Dennis Kucinich, darling of the party's left, has little to lose and plans to keep campaigning.
With proportional representation, this dynamic peels off a few delegates here and a few there. The frontrunner could well come into the convention (stagger in?) with fewer than 40 percent of the delegates. The Democrats also have 715 "super-delegates" who are elected officials and party leaders. But these delegates have no consensus favorite, either.<snip>

My best guess is that Clark will be nominated around the third ballot, pick Dean or Gephardt as his running mate, and go on to beat Bush.<snip>

[NewGuy]

1. My best guess is that Dean will be leading...

but not get the nomination. Many of his backers will stay home on election day and bush* will win.

A possible worse scenario sees Dean running as an independent.