It's a three way battle between Clark, Edwards and Kerry

[Feanorcurufinwe]

for the 'Stop-Dean' mantle. Large numbers of Democrats are more impressed by Dean's campaign than by Dean himself. Hence surges by Clark in New Hampshire and Kerry and Edwards in Iowa.

Clark's rise in NH was at the expense of Kerry, but the latest ARG poll shows Kerry's slide has stopped and he has been gaining for the last 4 days -- probably as news from Iowa has folks who counted him out of the race starting to give him a second look. Edwards too, is finally showing some motion in the latest poll. And 'Undecided' is finally showing some downward motion...

My prediction: either 'Stop-Dean' sentiment coalesces around one of these three before or immediately after Feb. third, or we'll be counting delegates all the way to an open convention...




ps, I posted this in P&C and that forum immediately disappeared, so I'm reposting here. I like the new rules for GD:2004 and I'm hoping they will help....

[mmonk]

1. My thoughts are

they are good candidates on their own (not necessarily as the anti-Dean). I'm glad people are taking a look at them.

[AntiCoup2K4]

2. You left out the real leader of the "Stop Dean" fiasco

KKKarl Rove.

BTW, no mention of Lieberman either? He's been involved in the attacks far more than Edwards or Clark.

[paulk]

4. No.

You denigrate the other candidates and their supporters by suggesting that they can't make up their own minds about who they should support.

It's only a "fiasco" if you are a Dean supporter. There are plenty of Democrats who do not want to see him as their nominee.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

5. Blaming any opposition to Dean on Karl Rove

is an old song, that I think has been played too many times on this station. And clearly the voters in Iowa and New Hampshire aren't buying it.

[TexasSissy]

3. They are not a "stop Dean" gang, though.

They are three candidates running for the Democratic nomination, same as the others. They are not getting together to stop another candidate, per se. EAch is out there running his best for his own candidacy.

I support Clark because of Clark, not because I want to try to stop another candidate. And yes, it's terrific that Clark, Kerry, Edwards, and Gephardt are gaining ground. (But mainly Clark, of course!)

[Adjoran]

6. An open convention is a possibility

BUT a very remote one. There are a lot of primaries to go, and one or two or possibly three candidates will rise above the field naturally. Dean was the first.

As the frontrunner, he has to expect criticism as the others draw distinctions in their platforms and scrutinize his record and statements. It was inevitable. Only those with little experience in politics would think otherwise.

I wouldn't rule out Gephardt just yet. With his union support, his Iowa voters will turn out. The weather forecast for Monday night is a low of 10 degrees, but no snow or rain likely. It will be a very cold night to venture out in Iowa.

In addtion to turnout, the Iowa system of vote-trading and coalitions in the precinct caucuses makes the outcome almost impossible to predict when there are four candidates with significant support running. It's anybody's race now.