Clark within 5 pts. of Dean in NH: ARG Poll

[Dookus]

Both Clark and Kerry are up 5 points in 4 days. Dean has lost 7. The race seems to be tightening all over!

3-Day Results Jan 9-11 Jan 10-12 Jan 11-13 Jan 12-14

Braun 0% 0% 0% 0%
Clark 19% 20% 22% 24%
Dean 36% 34% 32% 29%
Edwards 3% 3% 3% 5%
Gephardt 4% 4% 4% 4%
Kerry 10% 11% 13% 15%
Kucinich 1% 1% 1% 1%
Lieberman 10% 9% 9% 7%
Sharpton 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other 0% 0% 0% 0%
Undecided 17% 18% 16% 15%

Sample size 616 621 623 622

Democrats 425 430 435 435
Undeclared 191 191 188 187
Undeclared (%) 31% 31% 30% 30%
Margin of error is ± 4 percentage points
Methodology

[boxster]

1. Wow, this is incredible. Clark is nearly within the MOE of Dean.

The recent swing for Clark is simply amazing.

If Clark somehow does the unthinkable (a couple of weeks ago) and wins NH, I think we'll see the "Skip Iowa" plan become a common occurrence in the future.

[VolcanoJen]

8. If Clark wins New Hampshire...

... I think we might see the end of the significance of the Iowa caucuses once and for all.

What a fascinating race this is going to be!!

[meti57b]

2. Clark has the big momentum and Dean has the big slowmentum ... but

if Dean wins the nomination, I will be doing and spending all that I can to get him elected and bush out of office.

[Clark4VotingRights]

16. Hell yes! TO the doing/spending part!

Hell yes...

[Dookus]

3. One interesting thing to note here:

Kerry has stopped his sudden drop and is climbing again. If he wins Iowa (which now seems quite possible), he will get a big bounce in NH.

[MoonRiver]

4. GOOOOOOO GENERAL CLARK!!!!

Yes, I'm shouting, FOR JOY!!!

:kick: :bounce: :kick:

[stickdog]

5. Note that ONLY the tracking polls are showing these supposed swings.

Not a single regular poll is.

I wonder why.

[Dookus]

7. You're mistaken.

Other polls also show a big climb for Clark.

http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20040114/APN/401140819

[stickdog]

11. Dean has 15 point lead in that poll. (nt)

Dean was chosen by 32 percent of voters, followed by Clark with 17 percent, Kerry with 12 percent and Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman in fourth with 11 percent.

[Dookus]

13. yes, and Clark is rising steadily

Neither I nor anybody else has ever asserted that Dean is not in 1st place in NH. We're asserting that it's tightening.

[tameszu]

17. How about Clark within single digits (9 pts.) of Dean?

In this Boston Herald poll:

http://news.bostonherald.com/national/national.bg?articleid=503

(Actually, this was reported in the previous article)

SUSA also has Dean (35) vs. Clark (29):

http://surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/NH040112demprimary.pdf

[Maddy McCall]

24. The trend, my friend, the trend.

Dean is trending down; Clark is trending up. The undecideds are deciding.

:-)

[Frederic Bastiat]

6. Must be them undecideds LOL

Go Clark!

[Bombtrack]

9. you should edit it and put it in plane text so it's easier to read

3-Day Results 

    1/9-11 1/10-12 1/11-13 1/12-14 

Braun   0%     0%     0%      0% 
Clark  19%    20%    22%     24% 
Dean   36%    34%    32%     29% 
Edwards 3%     3%     3%      5% 
Gephardt4%     4%     4%      4% 
Kerry  10%    11%    13%     15% 
Kucinic 1%     1%     1%      1% 
Lieberm10%     9%     9%      7% 
Sharpton0%     0%     0%      0% 
Other   0%     0%     0%      0% 
Undecid17%    18%    16%     15% 
Sample size:
       616    621    623     622 
Dems   425    430    435     435 
Undeclared:
       191    191    188     187 
Undeclared(%):
       31%    31%     30%    30% 
Margin of error is ± 4 percentage points 
Methodology 

[Dookus]

10. Thanks Bombtrack -

how'd you do that? Whenever I've tried to format stuff that way, all the leading spaces get stripped out.

[John_H]

12. "Normal" people are starting to pay attention

You know, people who just take a look at the candidates and go vote--people who don't buy into the feel-good movement, people who don't know a blog from a meetup.

Dean's had the zealot bandwagoneers from day 1--that's the way trippi designed the campaign. Trouble is, when the rest of the Democratic voters tune in, Dr. Dean doesn't seem to go anywhere but down.

Bad news for Dean supporters, great news for anyone who puts beating the Chimp above feeling part of "something big."

[gulliver]

14. Now there's some great news!

Go Clark! I also notice he has nearly reached $700,000 in donations for his train to NH. I'm in.

[4StarWes]

15. Only wes can win IMHO

He's the only general running.

[gulliver]

19. Yes, he does bring the national security issue to the Dems.

There is so much more to the man, though. Watch him once or twice and it comes through loud and clear that he is brilliant and compassionate in addition to being courageous and experienced with foreign affairs.

And yes, Clark is a general. As Michael Moore said when he endorsed Clark, I too would love to see the "general against the deserter" in a debate.

[shivaji]

18. The new revelations regarding Clark's congrssional testimony may

pull his numbers down. Dean's revelations are all of the zzzz type.
Just makes him out to be a human being.

[windansea]

25. perhaps you need to read ALL Clarks testimony

and not just Drudge...see Josh Marshall for fair review

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/

[LTR]

27. It's all old news

How many months have we been hearing this stuff?

:boring:

[Closer]

20. Don't celebrate too much

This will be short lived.

As soon as Dean wins Iowa, he'll be in NH, hitting it H A R D

[DancingBear]

26. The Manchester debate on the 22nd should be interesting.

The two will get to battle - without CMB as a buffer, and with Al being, well, Al.

With regard to hitting NH hard, be aware of the independence of the NH voter, and their ability to make up their own minds. It can almost be assured that an attack on Clark's party affiliation will backfire. If "hitting it hard" means that, Dean may want to rethink his strategy.

[Clark4VotingRights]

21. While I'm chronically skeptical of polls...

Clark's recent progress seems pretty stunning.
I'm sorta stunned actually.

[funky_bug]

22. The most beautiful part of this poll is

that "undecided" is tanking!

Way to go, Democrats!

[Maddy McCall]

23. One goes up, the other goes down, and the margin of error makes

this a near statistical tie. WOOHOO!!!

:bounce: